NOW IT’S 26 BANKERS UP OUT OF 38: Daqman’s promise to lift his bankers over the 70% success threshold – which requires three in a row – was last night launched with a winner, Al Kazeem (WON 8-11 from around evens on BETDAQ). He’s now landed 26 from 38. His current scores:
CHALLENGE: Daqman 97, Pricewise 35
VALUE: Bull’s-Eye Bets + 221 points
MAXIMUM: Banker bets + 98 points
CURRENT NAP (York) + 51.60 points
SO (16-1) NEAR, YET SO (14-1) FAR: Daqman, who also tipped Pale Mimosa (WON 2-1) for the Lonsdale Cup and Bow Creek (WON 9-2) in the Celebration Mile at Goodwood, hit the wire with these bull’s-eye-bet near-misses at the York festival:
TOP NOTCH TONTO 2nd 16-1 (beaten a head)
VAN PERCY 2nd 14-1 (Ebor Handicap)
THE GREY GATSBY 2nd 12-1 (International)
HOOT FOR AMERICAN EXPRESS IN THE MORNY
2.40 Deauville (Prix Morny) Wesley Ward, who won this last year with No Nay Never, is back across the pond with his Windsor Castle winner, Hootenanny, but what will an American-bred make of this deep ground at Deauville?
It’s a real Royal Ascot clash, as Hootenanny meets Coventry Stakes winner, The Wow Signal, who beat into third that day Jungle Cat, who has since been second in the July Stakes, third in the Richmond at Goodwood, and just run out of it for yesterday’s Gimcrack.
Lehaim and Goken were third and fourth in the Robert Papin to Kool Company, who was well out of the back door in the Coventry.
In fact, this is a very poor race for the home contingent, who had given away 15 out of 19 Mornys inside Europe before the successful American raid a year ago.
The Aga Khan’s unbeaten filly Erdevya may be their best but Christophe Soumillon will be looking over his shoulder for Ride Like The Wind, who didn’t get the breaks behind his mount last time.
A day of sunshine is forecast for Deauville, and the times, though slow, were not too bad yesterday, so no excuses have been put forward this morning for this fascinating test: only a point separates the top three in the market.
Apart from a purple patch (2004-5), fillies don’t win this and, apart from Dabirsim (2011), the French colts don’t win it either.
I’ll take the American express, Hootenanny, at around 4.0 on BETDAQ this morning with a saver on The Wow Signal and expect to collect or break even.
3.10 Deauville (Prix Jean Romanet) After 10 runnings of this Group-1 fillies’ and mares’ memorial race to the late French ‘Jockey Club’ manager, England has scored only once.
Four-year-olds are 8-2 up over horses a year older, and Alain de Royer-Dupre, who has won the race twice in the last three years, has two of them.
He sent the imposing Narniyn to Goodwood for the Nassau, knowing that the ground was too firm, but she was not disgraced to finish runner-up, although stablemate Ipswich (pipped by Hippy since) ran her to half a length in the Group-3 La Coupe at Longchamp in June on ‘very soft’.
German hope Calyxa and Irish raider Euphrasia are not good enough to beat Narniyn on lines through Noble Mission, and Ribbons needs a rocket in her pocket to leap four grades from Listed level.
But the 2013 Oaks runner-up Secret Gesture – a winner on heavy as a juvenile – ought to take a hand if not impressing as the likely winner.
Pollyana is lightly raced as though she has problems, though I note that her sire, Whipper, gets animals which love bog-heavy ground and she goes well fresh. Won the Group-2 on Arc day last year.
I feel that Secret Gesture has always been a ‘nearly horse’ above Listed level (two seconds Group 1 last year, two seconds Group 2 this) and there are a couple of lines which suggest she would not have finished as close to the Nassau winner as did Narniyn.
She is just preferred to Pollyana and I think they are so far clear, and so close to each other on form, that I am taking short odds that one of the two will win, though you can, if you prefer, follow the method I’ve used in the Morny and back one with a stakes saver on the other.
3.30 The Curragh (Debutante Stakes) This race usually reveals a decent sort, none more so than last year’s winner, Tapestry, who produced the shock – albeit one of many – of this rainy season, in beating King George winner Taghrooda this week.
And that’s the problem with this and the rest of the Curragh card: rain. Yet again, rain (‘90% chance’) could change the good-to-firm ground to slippery, even soft. The punters’ nightmare summer continues.
Aidan O’Brien’s record first past the post in the decade is 11211101 and one of his trio is likely to go close though, with Beache Belle having finished in front of his I Am Beautiful in the Phoenix Stakes, he seems to be relying on Qualify, whose form is on firm ground, and Toogoodtobetrue, a long way behind Run The Red Light on the last day.
Lucida has run only once but, on lines through Dandyleekie, she has just as good a chance as the favourite on that one run alone, from which she is likely to have improved: 6.2 on BETDAQ this morning.
3.40 Deauville (Prix Kergorlay) Altano won the Prix Du Cadran last backend, so we should keep an eye on him here. Otherwise it’s a tactical renewal ruined by the rains.
4.05 The Curragh (Futurity) This has produced the Dewhurst winner three times since 2006 (Teofilo, New Approach, War Command) and two Derby winners, New Approach and Cape Blanco.
And here we have Jim Bolger saddling a Teofilo (Hall of Fame) and a New Approach (Parish Boy) and, on uncertain terrain, one – or both – could be up to clawing the prize from Ballydoyle’s Gleneagles.
Since Convergence has already toppled an O’Brien hot-pot (East India) and the runner-up to Parish Boy at Naas won more than eight lengths on the last day, there’s every chance of a key result here for next year’s Classics.
4.15 Goodwood (Supreme Stakes) Muteela, who made all in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot, and Ansgar, who won a Group 3 from the front at the Curragh, should have some of these working hard up the straight, reminiscent of the Celebration Mile yesterday, when Bow Creek had them out cold with two to go.
Three-year-olds have won this four times in the decade, including a Mark Johnston, whose Muteela is the sole Classic-generation representative here.
4.40 The Curragh (Irish St Leger Trial) Having scored at around even money on BETDAQ with my banker yesterday, I feel justified in tweaking the proifit well over the 100-points mark with maximum stakes on Leading Light, taking me within an ace of my 70% strike-rate target.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes to win 20 points, except the banker)
BET 6.6pts win HOOTENANNY and 3.2pts win (stakes saver) THE WOW SIGNAL (2.40 Deauville)
BET 10pts win NARNIYN and 4pts win POLLYANA (3.10 Deauville)
BET 3.8pts win LUCIDA (3.30 The Curragh)
BET 9pts win MUTEELA (4.15 Goodwood)
BANKER BET: 20pts win (nap) LEADING LIGHT (4.40 the Curragh)
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