DAQMAN PUNTS ‘BALL’ AS 8.4 NAP: Daqman, who had a 7-1 winning nap last week, tries another mighty swipe at the layers with 8.4 Yellow Ball at Doncaster this afternoon. His current naps sequence is 1112112201123.
CAN HURRICANE HOLD ON TO HIS TITLE? Daqman has another swing at the favourite, this time taking on Hurricane Fly, in the big race at Leopardstown. He’s too nervous of the champion for a lay but reckons that a punter-friendly BETDAQ allows him a stakes saver at odds against about the long-time hero.
‘FAULTLESS’ TRADE BUT THAT WAS ALL: Daqman was the ‘bridesmaid’ yesterday, with four in a row placed without winning, including Faultless Feelings, 8.0 on BETDAQ, an easy trade out as the leader until the last few yards. His duel with Pricewise remains at 10-4 to Daqman.
12.40 Doncaster Alan King’s below-par sequence goes on (most recently 3224445446F) and that makes it hard to back Turn Over Sivola (a bridesmaid himself with figures of 0222), despite his running up to both Dodging Bullets and Hinterland.
Sound Investment, from the family of Watson Lake, is a class-2 hurdler but is out of the handicap here, first time over fences. However, it is interesting to see what a trainer of Paul Nicholls’ fire power does with these new novices’ limited handicaps. A not-entirely-Sound Investment but 9.4 on BETDAQ this morning, allows for his inexperience.
God’s Own, another Oscar is also making his chasing debut, expected to better his 137 hurdles rating over fences and is 9.8.
It was always doubtful whether the small Mwaleshi was going to carry big weights as he climbed the novice-chase ratings but he is claimed off, with Jonathan England bidding for his fifth success on this Oscar gelding out of an Ardross mare.
However, Mwaleshi is nine in a few days’ time and whether this tenacious terrier can continue to hold the younger novices is unlikely. That also applies to Robbie (he’s 10 on Wednesday) who, despite his 311 form figures for fences, has been put up only a pound.
Next Sensation is probably the most experienced ‘novice’, as a winner already in an open handicap He was in front, bidding for a hat-trick, in another one at Newbury when he uncharacteristically tipped up.
The handicapper had seemingly failed with a 15lb punishment for his saunter of a success at Newcastle and he looks poised to return to form from mid-handicap in a fascinating race.
I’ll take the bigger prices God’s Own and Sound Investment, with the punter-friendly orange allowing me to cover the stakes with a saver on Next Sensation.
A big thank you to the trainers for demanding these races. What a difference from that shocking run of four and five runner fields in novice events that we had a few weeks ago.
1.15 Doncaster Henryville, runner-up to Sound Investment at Wincanton in the Spring, returned as the ‘moral’, giving 9lb but beaten only three lengths by a useful sort at Plumpton last month, and is big at 13.0 on BETDAQ, as I write.
The trainer, Harry Fry, who has won with three of his last four starters (form of 1311), puts Henryville up in trip as he goes head to head with his old boss, Paul Nicholls, saddling Coward’s Close.
Coward’s Close was due to go chasing in the autumn but won his reappearance novice hurdle so well at Fakenham that he tries to score again over the ‘sticks’ off what seems an attractive mark.
On Spring form, he comes out about the same horse on the ratings as Return Spring, who ran up to him at Exeter, and that one – winner of a Listed and second at Cheltenham – is now on 134. If that is at all representative, Coward’s Close is gifted this off 125.
Don’t Be Late has also performed at a higher level than today’s and, though his success had all come on top of the ground, he was unlucky (trapped behind horses) when third on the soft at Newbury last month.
Mister Dillon ran a promising reappearance at Cheltenham but Nicky Henderson’s stable is a nightmare for punters.
Sprinter Sacre, pulled out of his return with the explanation that just one tiny element of his tests was wrong, sensationally pulls up at long odds-on at Kempton, and Bobs Worth, a 40-lengths flop behind Cue Card in November, is a storming winner of the Lexus five weeks later.
2.00 Leopardstown (Ryanair Hurdle) An early running of the Champion Hurdle in that the holder, Hurricane Fly, trying to make it eight wins in a row and 20 from the last 23 starts, takes on two of the toughest young pretenders, Our Conor and Jezki.
Both are rated a stone behind him but Jezki won the kingmaker Hatton’s Grace, so often herald of a new regime, including when Hurricane Fly himself won it in 2010.
The exuberant Triumph Hurdle winner, Our Conor, is but four, and those who have won this at that age in recent years – Unaccompanied and Golden Cross – have failed to progress and come anywhere near the likes of Brave Inca (2005-6), Sublimity, Solwhit and, of course, Hurricane Fly (2010 and 2012).
And the 2013 Triumph, once regarded as a roll of honour, is now looking second rate. Second and third, Far West and Sametegal, would be swallowed up in this race today. No wonder Our Conor could win it 15 lengths.
The fourth horse, Diakali, has probably done best since, winning the French title in the summer. Jezki beat him and yesterday’s Christmas Hurdle winner, Zaidpour, in the Hatton’s Grace (2m 4f).
Hurricane Fly must surely be swatted off his perch one day and some will fancy the stamina of Jezki and the do-or-die of his jockey, A P McCoy, to be capable of that honour this afternoon.
The last five-year-old to take this race was Solwhit, like Jezki, the Punchestown champion of the previous season.
But do you dare oppose Hurricane Fly at 2m? If you are still a Fly man, odds against (2.21 on BETDAQ) was an extra Christmas gift.
It’s a question of whether you think his lack-lustre reappearance win was the beginning of the end. If so it is the end of the beginning for Jezki and 3.65 a bargain, an early January Sale snip.
I’m going to back Jezki with a coward’s saver on Hurricane Fly, whom Ruby Walsh insists is back to his champion best.
2.20 Doncaster Venetia Williams, who had three winners yesterday and is four out of five still standing, has a horse of huge potential in French scorer Yellow Ball, who made his UK debut a fortnight ago.
If the rain came this morning, as forecast, 8.4 on BETDAQ would be too big. Softer ground would make it harder for the two top weights – Mart Lane (‘just a fun horse’) and Real Milan (seasonal debut) and leave me expecting Susquehanna River as the ‘one most likely to’, a six-year-old off a handy mark.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.4pts win on each GOD’S OWN and SOUND INVESTMENT and 2pts win (stakes saver) NEXT SENSATION (12.40 Doncaster)
BET 6.6pts win COWARDS CLOSE, and 1.6pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) HENRYVILLE (1.15 Doncaster)
BET 7pts win JEZKI and 3pts win (stakes saver) HURRICANE FLY (2.00 Leopardstown)
BET 2.7pts win (nap) YELLOW BALL and 1pt win (stakes saver) SUSQUEHANNA RIVER (2.20 Doncaster)
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