WHEN THE LOSER IS A LAY-DOWN! Daqman gave it a whirl yesterday and opposed the favourite in the Pretty Polly Group-1 at the Curragh. He has his reasons for laying the market leader again in the Irish Derby there this afternoon.
WON 13-8 WHIRL
DAQMAN AGAINST ODDS-ON AGAIN: After opposing Kalpana (2nd 5-6), Daqman’s Lays Logic alerts today warn against the odds-on favourites in the Irish Derby and the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud.
STUD TO STOP FAVOURITE
RED FLAG OVER LAMBOURN. That was the heading on my Epsom Derby wrap. I now paraphrase its contents before I look at the form for this afternoon’s Irish version.
I found that shock winners of the Epsom Classic and those who made all the running simply never get over their exertions.
The four I examined, led by Serpentine (2020), subsequently ran 39 times in total but won only two more races all told.
⭕ 4.10 Curragh (Irish Derby) LAYS LOGIC: Horses are not robots; none that I know of has been built by Artificial Intelligence.
I will be the first to honour Lambourn if he can land the Curragh version after making virtually all at Epsom, backed in from 12-1 to 13-2, including some of my money when he was an even bigger outsider (for reasons explained in this column at the time). Why should I play again at odds-on this morning?
In Serpentine’s year, O’Brien’s Queens Vase winner, Santiago won the Irish Derby, as favourite.The trainer has won it four times in six seasons.
Lazy Griff, the Epsom second, failed to chase down Lambourn, and Tennessee Stud did best of those coming off the pace and could now reverse placings with the first two.
Seven winners out of 10 have scored from the low three stalls and O’Brien may have another Serious Contender.
A big baby in the autumn, he was second (drawn very wide) in a handicap at Royal Ascot (so is a Fortune Cookie), the same one won by King George star Hukum (2020) in Serpentine’s year.
IT ALL HANGS ON HARRY..
⭕ 2.00 Uttoxeter (Summer Cup) A claimer reduced Hang In There’s mark to 152 when he won this last year.`
Today Emma Lavelle has him on 152 again but is confident to use former champion Harry Cobden, who has a 30% strike rate since the new Jumps season began.
Hymac has never been out of the frame in 11 out of 12 races, still standing, and Dan Skelton steps up Coco Mademoiselle in trip on her hat-trick bid.
12.0 ROCKINGHAM DOUBLE
⭕ 3.30 Curragh (Rockingham Handicap) Keke and Harrys Hill are very different, the one consistent the other popping up occasionally at a big price.
Today could be a repeat of their one-two here in September from high draws, Harrys Hill getting 5lb. He is in a similar high stall (14) today but receiving a stone.
Extremes of the draw win this and Keke (from the one stall now) went close over a furlong further on the last day in a big field from gate 5.
Starting at this time last season, the Dandy Man gelding climbed 26lb up the handicap with a sequence of 11141. Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.8 Keke taken.
Harrys Hill is just 3lb higher than when winning the Rockingham in 2023. BETDAQ 12.0.
SECONDS OUT! GO GOLIATH
⭕ 4.30 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud LAYS LOGIC: Last year’s King George winner, Goliath, and likely challenger in that race next month, Calandagan, meet here with their ratings on 126 and 125, yet with Calandagan odds on this morning.
We’ve seen Calandagan run up four seconds in a row now, never much more than a length or so down but beaten on the line in Group 1 consecutively at York, Ascot, Meydan and Epsom.
Before that his success was in Group 2 and 3 and I simply can’t back him to get into the top rank.
It means that lining up as Goliath’s David today is the filly Aventure, runner-up in both Vermeille and Arc to Bluestocking, and unbeaten this year.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
2.00 Uttoxeter (win 20)
BET 4pts win HANG IN THERE
3.30 Curragh (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 4.5pts win HARRY’S HILL
BET 10pts to win 30 KEKE
4.10 Curragh (win 30)
BET 3.5pts win TENNESSEE STUD
★ 4.30 Saint-Cloud (win 20, nap)
BET 10pts win GOLIATH
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