TWO SATURDAY NAPS OUT OF TWO: Daqman napped two French horses yesterday, one at Newmarket, England, and one in Paris, France. Both won. Here are the forecasts in his headlines:
BAD START FOR LONGCHAMP RAIDERS
WON 8-11 Vazirabad (Longchamp)
ESOTERIQUE ‘SUN CHARIOT’ REVENGE
WON 11-8 Esoterique (Newmarket)
FIVE CONSECUTIVE BANKERS UP: That gave him eight successful naps out of nine (form figures 111111211) and five bankers in a row with:
WON 1-2 Shalaa (gold)
WON 10-11 Donna Graciosa
WON 5-6 Dark Emerald
WON 10-11 Kayla
WON 8-11 Vazirabad
SEVEN WINNING BETS IN ONE DAY: He named a Saturday seven successes in England and France, including three winners in a row at Ascot. In time order:
WIN: Vazirabad (Won 8-11, Longchamp)
WIN: Alice Springs (Won 2-5, Newmarket)
WIN: Star Storm (Won 7-2, Ascot)
WIN: Eastern Impact (Won 9-2, Ascot)
WIN: Esoterique (Won 11-8, Newmarket)
WIN: Buckstay (Won 9-2, Ascot)
WIN: Professor (place lay, unplaced 16-1, Ascot)
DAQMAN PASSES 90 MARK AGAINST PRICEWISE: Eastern Impact and Buckstay, both 9-2, and a cheeky lay of the Pricewise selection, Professor, took him to 91 winning bets over his Racing Post rival this season. The score is Daqman 91, Pricewise 14 (overall 232-87).
NEW BAY IS THE HUB OF AN ARC TRIPLE WHAMMY
Excusez moi! A Sepp Blatter draw has barred the Arc to England’s Derby hero. Not since George Bush ‘lost’ a few important ballot boxes in Florida has a race looked so rigged.
I didn’t say it was rigged by human-beings (so I can’t have maligned Blatter and Bush) but by circumstances which have banished the Epsom winner Golden Hero to the cycle track round the edge of the course.
Golden Hero (in stall 14), along with Free Eagle (12), and Found (15) are thrown out wide – strangely the top three from England and Ireland – while the home guard of Arc-hat-trick seeker Treve, Grand Prix winner Erupt and French Derby star New Bay are sitting pretty in stalls 8, 4 and 5 respectively.
Nine of the last 10 Arc winners came from stalls 1-8. Only a majestic burst by Treve (from gate 15 in 2013) could break down the barrier recently. In fact, 17 out of the 20 to finish in the first two in the decade came from those first eight stalls.
2.55 Longchamp (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe) I called the draw the X-factor in my ABC Guide on Wednesday, in which Treve and New Bay finished in the front three, and only a bad buffeting – not uncommon in the Longchamp straight – can now keep them out of it. That draw gives them every chance of avoiding such a scrimmage.
Treve has been saved for the race. Her two wins have been scintillating. She is very lightly raced for her age and could even be improving. I would not be in the least surprised to see her win again.
New Bay is also lightly raced, has also been kept for this, and is definitely improving. I would not be in the least surprised to see him score.
Read the form book, read my ABC guide, and check the stats and facts yourself, but there are two conclusions you will arrive at inevitably. Younger horses usually win. And New Bay is a better price (6.2 offers in the BETDAQ orange) for what he has done.
Another lightly raced, Erupt, the Grand Prix de Paris winner, who was at a soft-ground disadvantage in the Niel trial, has his surface today, and is the likely intruder into this ‘match.’ He’s huge at 27.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
The good news for Golden Horn is that the going was described as good to firm yesterday, which also suits Eagle Top, Erupt, Flintshire, Free Eagle and Tapestry.
The others have won on all types of going, with the exception of Manatee, Meleagros (withdrawn), Siljan’s Saga and Spiritjim, who much prefer soft-heavy.
It’s my view that Golden Horn has gone to the well too often; that the draw is against him; and that a trio of lightly-raced sorts will be fresher. I’d love to be wrong but that’s how it pans out, betting wise.
DAQMAN’S order in: 1 New Bay, 2 Erupt, 3 Treve. Triple whammy: lay Golden Horn, bet New Bay to win, Erupt for a place (Pricewise has also tipped three).
BLUE-BLOOD BALLYDOYLE NAPPED IN BOUSSAC
1.00 Longchamp (Prix Marcel Boussac) Won last year by Found, who will line up for the Arc later on. Aidan O’Brien also won it in 2005 and 2010, and today wheels out one of the wonders of Ballydoyle’s young bloods. Name of Ballydoyle.
He doesn’t frighten the French: Pascal Bary (Antonoe) has won it five times. He doesn’t even frighten his compatriot, Gentleman Jim Bolger, who takes him on again with Turret Rocks.
Turret Rocks has already finished three lengths off Ballydoyle at The Curragh (7f) but showed that she needed to step up to the mile which subsequently brought her success in the May Hill Stakes from a filly that had finished third in a Group-3 in France. Is the form good enough?
Antonoe, ridden by the Graham Lee of France, ex-jumps jockey Vincent Cheminaud, does not score highly on breeding.
Qemah’s relatives are stamina packed, but Left Hand’s have class, too. Ballydoyle? Well, she’s a Galileo blue-blood, sister to Misty For Me.
VERDICT: With eight runners, Left Hand is value at 12.5 in the BETDAQ orange; but nothing appeals more than Ballydoyle.
SHOGUN’S 11.0 TOO BIG FOR TOP COLTS’ TEST
1.35 Longchamp (Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere) After Found in the Marcel Boussac, Aidan O’Brien completed a first-past-the-post double in the two-year-old ’classics’ on this day last year with Gleneagles in this colts’ version.
Gleneagles lost the race in the Stewards’ room but he and third home Territories confirmed the form as the subsequent one-two in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas.
O’Brien is at the double again, with Ryan Moore preferring Johannes Vermeer over Shogun, but Shogun is the top-of-the-ground horse on the evidence of what was said when Herald The Dawn beat him on soft at the Curragh.
Herald The Dawn scored when it was firm before beating Shogun, succumbing in a Group 1 only to 2,000 Guineas favourite Air Force Blue – also O’Brien’s – on the last day.
Hugo Palmer’s juveniles are in fantastic form, Gifted Master going right away from them at Newmarket yesterday. An omen for Galileo Gold?
VERDICT: Andre Fabre’s choice, Ultra, is likely to be a big threat, and the going is right for Herald The Dawn to frank the top juvenile form.
But Shogun, a tasty 11.0 on BETDAQ as I write, could reverse their placings on the better ground and over the mile, and Johannes Vermeer’s form has been boosted twice.
13.5 CLADOCERA THE THREAT TO COVERT LOVE
2.10 Longchamp (Prix de l’Opera) Whatever happens to Galileo Gold, Hugo Palmer has a favourite’s chance here with Irish Oaks winner Covert Love to break the (seven wins out of eight) French stranglehold on this race.
The ground may have gone against Karl Burke’s late-developing Odeliz; in any case, horses over the age of four are only 1-40, with three-year-olds dominant (30 wins since 1974).
Prix Saint-Alary winner Queens Jewel could bounce back for Freddy Head but the ‘wrong price’ this morning is surely 13.5 offers about good-ground filly Cladocera, who must beat Jazzi Top, Star of Seville and Diamondsandrubies on Goodwood form.
She was shuffled back and denied a clear run when fourth to Legatissimo in the Nassau Stakes that day, with the International winner, Arabian Queen, finishing just in front of her.
Cladocera confirmed that she’s right on top of Legatissimo, when she gave her 5lb when beaten over a mile (too short) on yielding (too soft) at Leopardstown.
VERDICT: My one-two is Covert Love and Cladocera.
I STAND BY HOT-SPOTS GOLDREAM AND LIMATO
3.40 Longchamp (Prix de l’Abbaye) I previewed this race during the week and nominated as a Hot Spot the Kings Stand Stakes winner, Goldream, who beat eight of this field on firm ground at Ascot that day.
Once again, the draw seems vital, with six of the last eight winners from single-figure stalls, and luckily Goldream (9.6 on BETDAQ this morning) has bagged gate 5. Closest to him at Ascot, Muthmir, is in 6.
VERDICT: My one-two is Goldream and Muthmir
4.50 Longchamp (Prix de la Foret) My Hot Spot for this one earlier in the week was Commonwealth Cup runner-up Limato, who has since won the Park Stakes at the St Leger meeting.
VERDICT: The ground has come for Limato and gone against Make Believe, if his poor show at Ascot is anything to go by.
FINALLY, ONE TO WALTZ HOME IN THE CADRAN
5.20 Longchamp (Prix du Cadran) Ebor winner Litigant is a glass horse and it will be a major feat of training to get him home here on the back of only eight races in a seven-year-old’s life (six wins).
Willie Mullins raiders Clondaw Warrior and Simenon are ever-presents in anything where stamina is concerned but Simenon is not relevant when speed on fast ground is the deciding factor.
Clondaw Warrior seeimingly put Fun Mac in his place in the Doncaster Cup without winning it for himself.
Again something younger with kick could beat him at the business end, and that could be Walzertakt (6.4), the ‘moral’ in the Gladiateur, beaten a lengthy giving 4lb, suggesting he needed this extra half mile.
VERDICT: Despite being a winner on a sound surface over 1m 6f, Walzertakt (meaning ‘waltz time’) has been crying out for this trip.
I take him to beat his old rival, Bathbyrhon with Clondaw Warrior potentially splitting the two.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each win bet is staked to win 20 points; the same for the place bet on Erupt)
BET 10pts win (nap) BALLYDOYLE (1.00 Longchamp)
BET 2pts win and place SHOGUN, and 1.7pts (stakes saver) JOHANNES VERMEER (1.35 Longchamp)
BET 4.3pts win COVERT LOVE, and 1.6pts win and place CLADOCERA (2.10 Longchamp)
TRIPLE WHAMMY: LAY 5pts GOLDEN HORN; BET 4pts win NEW BAY, and 0.8pts win and 4pts place ERUPT (2.55 Longchamp)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50 points): BET 9pts win MUTHMIR and 5.8pts GOLDREAM (3.40 Longchamp)
BET 10pts win LIMATO (4.50 Longchamp)
BET 3.7pts win WALZERTAKT (5.20 Longchamp)
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