HAVE A NAP-HAPPY NEW YEAR: From the beginning of the year (May), with 15 winning naps out of 18, to the end, with 15 out of 21 (November), Daqman’s was a nap-happy 2014, and he aims to continue where he left off in the new year.
FOUR BANKERS UP OUT OF FIVE: Check out the last year’s success story in his Library, now updated on the Daqman icon, with a short summary listed in the column today. Here are his current standings before he turns over the page to 2015:
Four bankers out of five
Two lays out of two
Bull’s-Eye bets: 238 points profit
Value challenge: Daqman 10, Pricewise 5 (overall 118-64)
4-1 AND 3-1 FINISHING FLOURISH: Daqman’s final two bets of 2014, Bosstime and Pharoh Jake at Lingfield yesterday, won at 4-1 and 3-1. Today, the Pricewise challenge continues in the 1.55 Cheltenham and 2.10 Musselburgh.
THE DAQMAN WINNING HEADLINES OF 2014
HERE are the top winning headlines per month for the Daqman column in 2014. For full lists of Daqman’s form since 2007, see the Daqman Library.
January: 9-2 nap and 20-1 winner
January: 11-4 nap and 14-1 winner
January: 14-1 winner and 55-1 double
January: 12-1 Daqman out on his own (Thyestes 1-2, forecast 75-1)
February: Grand National trial winner at 16-1 February: Five consecutive naps and four bankers in a row
March: 12-1 and 17-2 hits at the Cheltenham Festival
March: Daqman 14-1 win celebrates with two-ton Tony (McCoy)
March: 9-1 winner of Betdaq Silver Bowl
March: 10-1 plus the Irish Lincoln winner
April: Five naps out of six includes 5-1 and 6-1
April: Irish National 1-2 (at 8-1 and 16-1, forecast 114-1)
April: 10 naps out of 12 (five in a row)
May: 15 winning naps out of 18
May: Eight bankers up in a row
May: 7-1 winner of the 1,000 Guineas
May: Seven lays in a row
May: 811 points naps profit
June Epsom Derby one-two at 11-8 and 15-2
June 16 bankers up out of 20
July Bull’s Eye Bet 228 points up
August 6-1 Stewards Cup bull’s-eye
August 25 winning bankers
August York International one-two, 8-13 and 12-1
August 120 points from 10-win spree
September 100 winners up over Pricewise
October Cesarewitch winner at 10-1
October Eight bankers in a row
November 15 out of 21 naps
December King George and Lexus winners
CAN TEDD STOP HENDERSON GRAVEY TRAIN?
12.10 Cheltenham In recent seasons, this novices’ hurdle has thrown up a few smart winners, including a certain Bobs Worth, who came to the race after beating another young upstart, Sire De Grugy, at Kempton (if only we’d known the strength of it) and would go on to win the Albert Bartlett, RSA and Gold Cup in successive seasons for Nicky Henderson.
Today, Henderson saddles one that, strictly on form, will need to have come on a stone since Newbury to trouble a brace of Albert Bartlett entries, Brother Tedd and Zeroshadesofgrey, who has won his three hurdles a total of 69 lengths.
The market already says that Different Gravey is more than likely to live up to his name (the highest of compliments in Ireland). But, at the offers, strong-stayer Brother Tedd was the early-mouse value on BETDAQ at 7.6, with a stakes saver on the favourite.
12.45 Cheltenham Taking into account Sean Bowen’s claim, first-time-blinkered Mon Parrain is on the same mark as when winning a similar contest at this level on the course in April. The negative is that, though he was second in the Topham as a five-year-old, he made no show in the Becher recently, unfancied at 40-1.
And Sam Twiston-Davies rides stablemate Just A Par, also first-time blinkered, also a flop (pulled up) in the Becher. The handicapper has dropped Just A Par 8lb since he ran seventh in the RSA in March.
Others who have to bounce back are Shakalakaboomboom and Our Father, who has now been dropped 19lb in two years but it’s still potential we have to rely on (sounds like a morning glory to me).
Shakalakaboomboom has had a run back after a wind op and been given every chance by the handicapper, dropped 10lb since the festivals of Cheltenham and Aintree. He could have a real go at this at a big price: 16.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Charingworth’s form has been boosted by Balbriggan, Broadway Buffalo and Mister Grez, but the handicapper thought he had hold of him off 134 last time (so has dropped him a pound for this).
He also thinks he can leave Alfie Spinner on 128, after his returns of 242324 off a similar mark, and hasn’t won for more than three years. Similarly, Saint Are has run two good thirds rated 129 and 127 and the handicapper says: ok, I’ll give you 128.
So, if your conclusion is that the race doesn’t contain a single improver, you’re probably right (I couldn’t fancy the five-year-old Cadeau George unless it rains all morning).
1.20 Cheltenham (Dipper Novices’ Chase) My Way De Solzen (2007) prepped for his Arkle win in this, and Ptit Zig would be heading that way if he can dispose of Champagne West and Ned Stark.
The pair are both stayers and connections will be aware that this is Ptit Zig’s first try at the trip. The CD Cheltenham experience of Champagne West could be vital.
1.55 Cheltenham Rolling Aces has stayed well in two strong recent races but hasn’t much finish. Success now rests on the shoulders of 5lb-claimer Sean Bowen.
Stablemate Caid Du Berlais has always been a once-a-year horse and he couldn’t hold his PP Gold Cup form, pulling up when he tried the double in the December Gold Cup.
In that race, Splash of Ginge was chasing the leaders when he fell four out. He’s a potential improver at seven years old but has taken only a three-runner chase since switched from hurdling last February (when he won on heavy).
Champion Court, who will appreciate today’s underfoot conditions, ran well in the first of those ‘golds’ and is now a stone below his mark at this time last year, more if you count Conor Shoemark’s claim.
We’ve all given up on Ericht but the handicapper hasn’t, and Tenor Nivernais surely wants rain. Champion Court looks massive at 15.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
2.30 Cheltenham A star was born here when Big Buck’s won this (at 9-2, wow!) on his way to World Hurdle glory.
Ulzana’s Raid gave weight and a beating to Big Easy over CD in the middle of last month, so has to give more now to Knight Of Noir and the lightweights Southfield Vic and Sybarite.
If Ulzana can do it, at tasty 5.7 BETDAQ offers, he will give Alan King the same choice that Paul Nicholls had with Big Buck’s, who was also a prospective chaser until kept to hurdles (and the rest is history).
3.05 Cheltenham Very smart winners of this include Blazing Bailey, Oscar Whisky and Annie Power. On this ground at Cheltenham, Rock On Ruby – Champion Hurdle winner and second – can look smart, too.
But he’s 10 years old today and his wins have become once-a-year events now (December 2013, December 2014) so he could be vulnerable giving weight to the young upstarts, Vaniteux and Silsol.
Vaniteux has run his last three races at Cheltenham; no disgrace to have been beaten by The New On, Garde La Victoire and Vautour, which has lifted his rating 11lb. If he’s ever going to tackle a big hurdle at the festival, he must win this at the weights.
3.40 Cheltenham This bumper goes down in history as the launchpad for The New One (we’d have bitten their hands off for the 11-2 SP, if we could have seen the future).
It’s not the kind of race I bet in but I can pass on a strong word for Irish raider Camlann, with Barry Geraghty booked by an in-form ‘Shark’ Hanlon.
WITNESS IN COURT CASE AGAINST McCAIN
1.35 Musselburgh (Scottish Premier Chase) Sue Smith and Brian Ellison, winners of this in the last two seasons, are back with Swing Hard and Viva Colonia respectively.
Swing Hard won the three-miler on this card last year after setting himself up for the race with a good run at Newcastle. He prepped on the same Geordie course this time round, and is a better offer than he should be at 8.4 on BETDAQ,as I write.
Brian Ellison is in form but Viva Colonia has gone down to 17 defeats since winning here at the start of 2013 yet is running off the same mark today.
Other candidates for a lay are a pair from stables badly out of form, Witness In Court and Tiptoeaway, whose trainer, Tim Easterby, hasn’t had a single chase winner this season.
Donald McCain won a 2m novice here with Witness in Court but two attempts at further have failed, and McCain’s yard has had only one winner from 29 starters in two weeks, seven of them pulled up, five beaten favourites.
You’re on a weather watch for December Gold Cup faller Workbench who needs top of the ground, but heavy rain is forecast. Shadrack looks best of the old boys; he handles it soft but not heavy.
2.10 Musselburgh (Hogmaneigh Hurdle) Last year’s Irish-trained winner when hooded first time, Strongpoint, is back for more on his 11th birthday.
He’s 10lb higher, and hard to see how he’s earned it, since he’s taken only a minor race since but he’s three from five on the course and his regular winning rider, Peter Buchanan, seems to prefer him to Thorpe, on whom he won well at Haydock (20-1).
Reckoned to have more to come, Thorpe (10.5 on BETDAQ early mouse) is up only a couple of pounds, thanks to Derek Fox’s claim, and the rain would give him a big chance in his first handicap, an open contest at 6.4 the field this morning.
Stephanie Frances was given credit by her trainer for success at Worcester and a close second at Ludlow but, in between, was right out the back door, 95 lengths behind Thorpe in that Haydock race.
Lightening Rod’s rating has risen 15lb for back-to-back wins inside two months but he might again hold Fisher if the heavy rain arrives. Gold Futures goes well fresh and acts on soft. Fisher prefers a sound surface, which is also required by Smart Ruler and the classy but quirky Fred Winter winner, Hawk High, who has to give weight all round.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each horse backed to win 30 points at morning BETDAQ offers)
BET 4.5pts win BROTHER TEDD and 1.75pts win (stakes saver) DIFFERENT GRAVEY (12.10 Cheltenham)
BET 3.3pts win JUST A PAR, and 2pts win and place SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (12.45 Cheltenham)
BET 10pts win CHAMPAGNE WEST (1.20 Cheltenham)
LAY 4pts WITNESS IN COURT and BET 4pts win SWING HARD (1.35 Musselburgh)
BET 3pts win ROLLING ACES, and 2pts win and place CHAMPION COURT (1.55 Cheltenham)
BET 3pts win THORPE (2.10 Musselburgh)
BET 6pts win ULZANA’S RAID (2.30 Cheltenham)
BET 15pts win (nap) VANITEUX (3.05 Cheltenham)
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