3-1 WINNER BUT CHANCE OF A PROFIT HAD GONE: Gone Dutch (WON 3-1) scored in a BETDAQ-sponsored race at Kempton Park last night but that success was not enough to ensure a profit on the day, with Daqman’s nap, Rock Choir, only third, finishing well in a slow-run race for the feature event at Salisbury.
GO WITH THE FLOW AT NEWMARKET: Daqman fancies Snowboarder for today’s big race at Salisbury but has a banker bet at Leopardstown, challenging the stats there for the handicap, and rating Flow best at Newmarket.
2.40 Newmarket The Classic generation is hardly getting critical acclaim but that means they are better offers on BETDAQ at Newmarket and Salisbury and may well have a good thing going for them at Leopardstown.
In this Newmarket race, I’m opposing the paper favourite, four-year-old Willow Beck, who looked good at Sandown, but then he would, wouldn’t he. He beat a maiden and two class-6 winners in that order, and now steps up a grade and 5lb in weight at the same time. Must improve.
The lightly raced Theodore Gericault, badly hampered at Sandown, can step up for Sir Michael Stoute, who completed a hat-trick of wins since Saturday when Mango Diva scored yesterday.
Yes, the three-year-olds beat the older horses in the fillies’ and mares’ Listed, though it was not the winner I wanted.
It was a poor time in the conditions and I’d fancy Rock Choir to reverse the placings with Mango Diva, given some pace to the race but both are on the upgrade.
A danger to the Stoute beast may be another second-season animal, Flow, a Group horse in the making until injured last year, and now going handicapping.
In fact, the Cecil camp has a fabulous 53% record with horses first time in a handicap, rising to 73% when dropped in class. I’ll take Flow to win the battle with ‘Jericho.’
3.55 Salisbury (Sovereign Stakes) Andrew Balding goes for a hat-trick but with Highland Knight, aged six, after back-to-back success with four-year-olds, dropped down from the same Group 2 at Ascot.
Highland Knight won a Group 2 in Germany last year but not much has been seen of him this time around. His Spring second in the Sandown Mile doesn’t look so good now; winner, third and fourth have all failed to score since.
Another six-year-old was favourite this morning, Afsare. Though he’s won only at Listed level, he was second in America’s Arlington Million and also in a Group 2 at York.
Yet a third six-year-old is Boom And Bust, who belied his handicap status by running third in a Group 2 at Glorious Goodwood. But the overall form of this pair since the start of 2012 suggests they are frustrating sorts and surely there’s a younger horse to back in the 4.6 bar two this morning.
Professor was behind Boom And Bust at Goodwood but, at the same meeting, Snowboarder (badly hampered) was unlucky not to beat, or at least get closer to, Montiridge. And that’s saying something!
Montiridge trounced that fillies’ Listed winner of yesterday, Mango Diva, when they met in the Spring, and ran Gale Force Ten to a head in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. I’ll take that 4.6.
7.25 Leopardstown (Desmond Stakes) The three-year-olds, who are five out of six in this Group 3, have a formidable team leader here in Darwin, related on the dam’s side to Nureyev who goes back to the modern origin of the thoroughbred species, the daddy of them all, Northern Dancer.
Darwin stamped himself a serious racehorse when dismissing Gordon Lord Byron at The Curragh before that one ran third to the magnificent Moonlight Cloud in the Prix Maurice De Gheest.
An 8lb pull for ‘Gordon’ today would be effective if the rain came in quantity but, with the two-year age difference, you can expect the young improver to find more.
7.55 Leopardstown I’m staying in Ireland to suggest that the version of the draw in the trade paper does not correspond to the results of this race: in the last 10 years, there have been seven renewals with between 10 and 21 starters.
The winners came from stalls 11, 9, 9, 12, 12, 19 and 13, with none from the ‘vital low draw’ – not a one – and Rock Critic (8.6 on BETDAQ this morning), last seen at Listed level on the Flat, looks well placed from stall 10.
BET (to win 20) 7.2pts win FLOW and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) THEODORE GERICAULT (2.40 Newmarket)
BET (to win 20) 5.5pts win SNOWBOARDER (3.55 Salisbury)
BANKER 20pts win (nap) DARWIN (7.25 Leopardstown)
BET (to win 20) 2.6pts win ROCK CRITIC (7.55 Leopardstown)
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