FILLY 1: TOP IN THE OAKS TEST: There’s a filly in the Oaks trial at Goodwood today who might have gone close in the 1,000 Guineas but was saved up for this. And there’s a two-year-old race which the Hannon’s usually win with an outsider.
FILLY 2: SHE HIT THEM FOR SIX: At Sandown, there’s a filly winner at York with no fewer than six last-time-out scorers behind her. She’s Daqman’s banker but, with sunshine about, the firmish ground means savers in most races. However, he has two daring lays!
GOODWOOD TOP WEIGHT TO WIN, GOD WILLING
2.10 Goodwood Team Hannon’s record in this race is 1111132, and East Everleigh sends out two today, one of them George William, a son of their 11 times winner and Group-1 miler Paco Boy, and 10.0 in the BETDAQ orange early mouse.
Richard Hughes rides stablemate War Whisper but only one of the Hannons’ sequence of five winners was ridden by Hughsie and only one was favourite. Curiouser and curiouser, said Alice Treedown.
2.40 Goodwood This is Amanda Perrett’s local course and she won the race two years ago. The trainer of Saucy Minx is in good form; in fact, the only trainers in this not doing well are James Eustace (Major Crispies was probably his last winner, two grades lower than this) and Chris Wall.
Wall’s Mr Win has needed two runs back before striking in both of the last two seasons and he could need another one to sharpen him up, though he put in a fair effort at Ascot.
Fiftyshadesofgrey will take some stopping if finding his stride from the gate. He won over CD three weeks back, but is prone to slow starts. He and Bertiewhittle are the only class-2 winners in the field.
Take A Note was on the upgrade last season but is likely to flatten out as a six-year-old, and the potential improvers are God Willing and Nigel’s Destiny.
Ed Dunlop’s God Willing (offers around 6.0 on BETDAQ) was the ‘moral’ in his latest starts, giving weight to the winners when narrowly beaten at Lingfield then, on his reappearance, Chelmsford (class 2).
Nigel’s Destiny (an 8.0 shot), three times a Polytrack winner, is also disguised by having run (eight of his nine starts) on AW. Note that he has improved 12lb in that discipline and that Ryan Moore sticks with him, after their victory at Lingfield in February.
3.15 Goodwood No outright favourite has won this in the decade and no horse older than five for eight years now.
So, though tough as, Teak could be struggling here off his high mark, and really needs further. Ur(notso)amazin has scored just the once – on AW – since 2010.
We can expect Sebastian Beach to lead and you might be able to trade him in running but Jonjo O’Neill, though in solid NH form, has blanked with his Flat starters this year.
Joining him in front should be Samtu, who got an uncontested lead to win at Doncaster but over shorter, and he’s 7lb higher.
Our Folly has won over CD but not for two years. The grey Albahar might have a chance on his French form but trainer Chris Gordon couldn’t train beans up a pole right now.
Gaviar (BETDAQ 5.0) gets a pound from See And Be Seen but is 21lb better, on a line through Fitzwilly. Stayed on well, second, on this course over 1m 6f on the last day.
Civil War (offers of 5.7) won over 1m 6f here a year ago, shaped well on his return and, with Ryan Moore up in a modest race, must surely take part in the finish.
3.50 Goodwood Once again, no outright favourite has scored but only one out of 10 was bigger than 8-1 at SP.
I should write a whole separate article about how and why Mark Johnston’s charges love to win from the front, though the canny Scot himself would argue that his horses have no instructions different from anyone else’s.
Resonant’s front-running finally paid at Newmarket, despite his being raised two furlongs in trip. He built up a commanding lead and beat ‘nothing’ 10 lengths.
Goodwood is the place to try to repeat those tactics, despite a quick return under a nominal penalty as he tries to get beneath the handicapper’s radar.
Darshini is likely to go with him. Made all at Sandown last summer and tracked leaders before being pulled out to win on his return at Doncaster.
Laidback Romeo made a seasonal comeback full of promise in a winners’ race at Ascot, and the grey Silver Quay was unlucky at Doncaster in the autumn two grades higher than today.
The disguised horse could be Firmament, since we simply don’t know how good he is on top of the ground.
He’s been kept to a soft surface so far, and his dam’s sire was Pivotal. But likes and dislikes are more often linked to the sire, and Cape Cross’s progeny love to hear their feet rattle (near 20% record on firm).
I’m opposing the favourite here as given an uncontested lead by a lorry load of donkeys last time, and Darshini is far too easy to back (6.0) as a Stoute winner. I took 8.2 Laidback Romeo and 9.8 Firmament.
LADY CAN REACH THE HEIGHTS FOR LUCKY LUCA
4.25 Goodwood (Height Of Fashion Stakes) As the Lupe Stakes, this produced the Oaks winner Love Divine (in 2000); as the Height Of Fashion Stakes, it gave us the dual Oaks winner (Epsom and The Curragh), Snow Fairy.
Snow Fairy had won only a class-5 maiden going into this trial, so don’t be in a hurry to write off anything running today.
I was not among those who pounced with my mouse and cursored Jellicle Ball for the Guineas after her Fred Darling second to Redstart.
There were excuses (firm ground/in season) after Jellicle Ball was then last but one in the Newmarket Classic but Redstart finished alongside her. Not such darling form, then!
Lady of Dubai is highly regarded by Luca Cumani but he could not get her right enough for the three-grades-higher-than-today 1,000 Guineas. The Newmarket yard has been in cruise gear since then, and she may be better class than these.
Encore l’Amour should get some black type in the course of the season, but Lulani’s run back has prompted connections to reach for a hood first time today. Not a good sign at this level.
Arethusa’s races haven’t worked out, though she is entitled to improve and Ryan Moore has been booked for this return to Goodwood (she won here over 7f).
7.00 Sandown Mark Johnston’s Yorkidding beat six last-time winners among his nine opponents at York last week and the nominal penalty (that’s the second one today, trained by Johnston) may not stop him beating Game Show, whose form has been let down by Mercy Me.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points, including the banker, at BETDAQ offers this morning)
BET 2pts win and place GEORGE WILLIAM (2.10 Goodwood)
BET 4pts win GOD WILLING and 2.8pts win NIGEL’S DESTINY (2.40 Goodwood)
BET 5pts win GAVIAR and 4.2pts win CIVIL WAR (3.15 Goodwood)
LAY 5pts win RESONANT, and BET 2.4pts win LAIDBACK ROMEO and 2.2pts win FIRMAMENT (3.50 Goodwood)
LAY 5pts win JELLICLE BALL, and BET 7.5pts win LADY OF DUBAI (4.25 Goodwood)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) YORKIDDING and 4pts win (stakes saver) GAME SHOW (7.00 Sandown)
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