TODAY: CELEBRATION MILE ABC: Daqman puts the stats to the facts and analyses the field for Saturday’s Celebration Mile at Goodwood in his inimitable ABC style. There’s just one English Flat meeting at Musselburgh.
TOMORROW: DIGGING FOR GOLD: Daqman will search for the nuggets in a minefield of six cards a day in England on Friday and Saturday, featuring meetings each day at both Goodwood and Newmarket.
KODI BEAR PUNTERS EXPECTING CELEBRATION
3.45 Goodwood, Saturday (Celebration Mile): Three-year-olds are 5-3 up over five-year-olds in the last decade; four-year-olds never seem to win it.
It’s a strong field, with all the runners already placed in a Group race, and more than half showing improvement to a new level. Only three have won or been placed at Goodwood before.
Top contenders will tick these boxes (but you need to check their ability to act on Saturday’s ground, currently soft but may dry out):
A Aged 3 or 5
B Won or placed in a Group race
C Racing off highest rating
D Rated 111 to 117
E Won or placed at Goodwood
ABCDE Dutch Connection
Broke his maiden at Goodwood a year or so ago on the firm and narrowly beaten in the Lennox Stakes there (7f) on the last day.
He beat Fadhayyil in the Jersey Stakes and his second in the Prix Jean Prat to Territories was a 10lb improvement on their Guineas form together, when Territories was second and Dutch Connection only seventh.
ABCD Kodi Bear
Subject of a gamble this week, with Gerald Mosse booked to follow up their runaway success in the Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury (good).
Dewhurst runner-up last year (soft), Kodi Bear did not reappear until winning at Windsor in June (firm) but was behind Territories and Dutch Connection in the Prix Jean-Prat at Chantilly, probably not travelling over well.
ABD Breton Rock
Has hovered on a rating of 112 or 113 for just over a year now, in which time he has been winner and third in the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury (good to soft both times)
ACD Richard Pankhurst
Reckoned a Guineas horse after winning the Chesham at Royal Ascot last season, rated higher at home then than the later-developing Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs. Not seen since.
BCDE Gabrial
Has had 10 races this year, starting with victory in the Lincoln Handicap, when he foiled a gamble on Mondialiste, but a long way adrift of that one on the last day at York, despite excellent third in the Sussex Stakes (Group 1) at Goodwood. Behind Kodi Bear at Windsor.
BCD Balty Boys
Raced off 100-103 last term but stepped up a gear this summer, fourth in the Royal Hunt Cup (1m, firm) and head second back on the same course for the furlong-shorter International Stakes recently (soft). Now on 112.
BCD Lightning Spear
The bookies favourite for this until the plunge on Kodi Bear. Very lightly raced, following up a sequence of four successes with second in the Group-2 Ascot Summer Mile (firm) and fourth in the Jacques-le-Marois (Group 1, very soft). Up a total of 11lb for those two races.
BDE Cable Bay
A nearly horse, Group placed at two and at three, finally broke the bridesmaid sequence when scoring at Haydock (Group 3) in May. Third in the Sumer Mile (Lightning Spear second) and fourth in the Hungerford (Breton Rock third).
BE Captain Cat
Consistent last year, winning two Group-3s and not disgraced in Champion Mile. Not in same form since, and behind Cable Bay and Kodi Bear last two starts.
BE Hors De Combat
A nearly horse, fifth in this last year, and Group placed twice since. Behind Lightning Spear and Cable Bay in the Summer Mile on the last day.
BE Fire Ship
Yet another nearly horse, placed in Group 3 twice and Listed three times but not won for two years, and beaten total of nearly 80 lengths in four starts this season (best run was on heavy at Leopardstown, Just behind Gabrial in June.
LILAC TREE IS ‘WELL IN’ AT STRATFORD
Have I missed something? Is this October? Three Jumps, 1 All Weather Flat and 1 Flat turf. That doesn’t add up as a correct fixture list for the end of August.
With this in mind, I have one selection for each track. The racing is not of any great quality but there is some value to be found.
3.10 STRATFORD Starting over the sticks at Stratford and what appears to be a golden opportunity for Lilac Tree.
He was a very easy winner in a Maiden Hurdle at Newtown Abbot at the end of July and was unable to close on the eventual winner at Bangor last week in a Novice event. He’s due to go up 5lbs this week so today’s run comes at a good time.
Royal Irish Hussar is the class horse in the race but I would be very skeptical if he can give away two stone to a potential improver.
4.00 MUSSELBURGH The only Flat meeting on turf today. Jack Gerritty has made a strong name for himself this season and he gets the leg up on Spring Offensive.
The big issue I have with this one is that he looks like he prefers to be placed rather than win. With only 1 Maiden win to his name, two seconds and two thirds, he may not be the most reliable sort.
Green Howard was steadily dropping in the handicap until he finished second at Ripon last time. He was given a 4lb penalty for that but off 88 he can be competitive and with a course and distance win by his name of a 2lb lower mark, he should put it up to the jolly today.
4.20 SOUTHWELL It seems odd to be giving a Jumps runner at Southwell the Nap at this time of year but these are the cards we are being dealt today.
Nicky Henderson’s Vodka ‘N Tonic has been off since May when finishing fifth at this track over 5 furlongs further. He appeared to simply that day as he travelled well into the straight but emptied out before the last.
The drop in trip will suit and Jerry McGrath provides a valuable 3lb claim that brings him back closer to his last winning mark which came at Exeter in April.
7.00 SEDGEFIELD Staying with jumps and an 8 runner Handicap Hurdle. This is quite a nice looking race.
The selection goes to Waterclock who is reverting back to Hurdles after some decent runs on the flat in the last few months, including a win at Beverley.
He’s very lightly raced over Hurdles and has run some good races without winning to date. His Handicap mark is the interesting thing off 110. The trip seems to be ideal and the better ground should suit also.
7.45 WOLVERHAMPTON Finishing up on the All Weather with a Handicap over seven furlongs.
There isn’t much jumping off the page at me here and a chance can be taken on Simon Crisford’s Faintly.
He’s clearly had plenty of trouble in training with only two runs since September 2013. That year however, he was a very impressive winner of a Lingfield Maiden, winning going away on the bridle by seven lengths.
If he can retain any of that form it should bring him to the fore in this race, although the Handicapper probably could have been a little kinder to him after the breaks in training.
Today’s trip should suit after not staying last time at Chelmsford and we can have a small bet on him to end the day.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9)
BET 6pts win LILAC TREE (3.10 Stratford)
BET 3pts win GREEN HOWARD (4.00 Musselburgh)
BET 7pts win (nap) VODKA ‘N TONIC (4.20 Southwell)
BET 4pts win WATERCLOCK (7.00 Sedgefield)
BET 2pts win and place FAINTLY (7.45 Wolverhampton)
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