DETTORI WON’T QUIT AFTER ALL: Frankie Dettori today told the Racing Post that so successful has been his ‘farewell tour’ that he is not retiring. British Champions Day at Ascot next Saturday will be his final day of British racing but he then moves to Santa Anita in the USA and takes up regular options in Dubai and Saudi Arabia.
MULLINS LINK TO TWO BIG RACES: Today Daqman applies his stats to the Cesarewitch field and comes up with a short list of 13 left to study. His link with the Melbourne Cup market on BETDAQ is Willie Mullins.
LUCKY 13 CESAREWITCH ABC
IT’S AN IRISH 1-2-3 in the Cesarewitch at the top of my list of horses with the best credentials on the stats, though that’s before the draw is known.
⭕ 2.40 Newmarket, Saturday (Cesarewitch) STATS ABC and form guide:
A: AGE 16 out of 23 this century aged 5 to 8
B: WEIGHT 16 out of 23 carried below 9st.
C: TRAINERS: Nicky Henderson 4, Mark Johnston 3, Willie Mullins 3, Brian Meehan 2. Ireland have won four of the last five. JOCKEYS: Silvestre De Sousa 3, Jason Watson 2.
D: Stable in form.
E: Winner in class 2 or higher (or Graded hurdle).
G: Winner at 2m or more.
H: DRAW (winners by stall 2012 to 2022): 1, 18, 2, 15, 20, 24, 13, 20, 23, 6, 9.
ABCDG SHEISHYBRID (Noel Meade) Runner up in the Cesarewitch Trial here at Newmarket last month, won the Ulster Cesarewitch a year or so back as part of three stamina strikes out of four attempts. Best form on a sound surface.
ACDG LOT OF JOY (Willie Mullins) William Buick’s ride was my early ante-post bet at 33-1. The mare is now below the mark at which she was beaten only a length in last year’s Irish Cesarewitch and has been placed in big fields over hurdles. Still only five.
ABCD MR ESCOBAR (Willie Mullins) Very Little form to go on but strong in the betting since markets opened, interest largely around his stable getting one into the race with such a low weight.
ABEG GOSHEN (Gary Moore) Back-to-back Kingwell Hurdle wins in 2021 and 2022, with no Flat success since hat-trick which was part of six-in-a-row sequence in 2019-20. Quirky but still with a big fan base.
ABEG EMIYN (Declan Carroll) Chester specialist with form there of 142421012, including 1m 2f Watergate Cup.
ABEG ZINC WHITE (Ian Williams) 1m 6f soft-ground double for Ralph Beckett in the Spring of 2021; back to form this year for new yard in big-field Chester Plate (2m 2f), also on the soft.
ABDG BASHFUL BOY (David Pipe) Martin Pipe stable landed gambles in 2000 and 2002, and David back to form with three wins and two seconds from seven runners inside a week.
Bashful Boy, fifth in the Cesarewitch Trial last month, landed a hat-trick in the summer with two 1m 6f Flat and one hurdles win over 2m 5f. Looks laid out of the race but needs top of the ground.
ABG BLAZEON FIVE (Roger Teal) Two class-3 two-mile Ascot (soft) strikes in the summer following lower-level hat-trick last autumn.
ABG GEREMIA (Jim Goldie) Mare who won three out of four staying races for Marco Botti in 2021. Two wins with cut in the ground at 1m 5f this year for new yard.
ABG ROBERT JOHNSON (Philip Kirby) Won five out of six up to 2m, climbing the handicap this year, and back to form staying on, second, over 2m 4f in Goodwood Handicap in August, beaten little more than a length by Temporize.
ABG VINO VICTRIX (Hughie Morrison) Cesarewitch runner-up last year on good ground; fourth over 2m at Goodwood in early September.
ABG WONDERWALL (Richard Spencer) Hidden horse. Very lightly raced, has been working with quality Flat horses but no success himself; won 2m 5f maiden hurdle early last year.
ADEG PIED PIPER (Gordon Elliott) Hurdles winner four times last year, including Triumph Hurdle Trial; sixth in the Ascot Stakes (2m 4f). Best run this year, second in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham.
MELBOURNE CUP MARKET
WILLIE win both? Willie Mullins, who has two of the top three in the Cesarewitch ABC, has Vauban favourite for the most valuable handicap in racing, the Melbourne Cup at Flemington on November 7.
Vauban is 4.0 in the BETDAQ Sportsbook ahead of 5.0 Soulcombe, trained by Chris Waller, who won the race with Verry Elleegant in 2021.
Joseph O’Brien, winner twice with Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2020), could saddle Valiant King and Okita Soushi, both 21.0 on BETDAQ.
Just Fine for Gai Waterhouse and another Chris Waller possible, Francesco Guardi, both 15.0 with BETDAQ, are much shorter with some bookmakers.
FOLLOW STABLES IN FORM
WITH the form unreliable, low-level races are cleaned up by top stables. Tonight I nominate Ralph Beckett: he can place them high and place them low; with the result the same.
Meanwhile, over Jumps, a rare man-in-form is David Pipe, whose winners are normally spaced out but he currently shows form of 321221001.
⭕ 3.05 Worcester Paul Nicholls penchant is to clean up the bumpers at this time of year; he has his first runner in that division today, Rickety Bridge, last seen running away with a Point.
That was at Bishops Court, which runs a free bus service to Exeter races today, where conspicuous by their absence are leading-trainer Nichols and top jockey Harry Cobden, associated instead with Rickety Bridge, better than 2-1 on BETDAQ this morning.
⭕ 3.55 Ayr Cold Store, the David O’Meara winner of this in 2021, was beaten in the Ayr Bronze Cup three weeks back by stablemate Ascot Adventure.
Ascot Adventure has been in the first four seven races running and must go well again, if he copes with the heavy ground.
Admiral D, who acts on it, was third in the higher-level Silver Cup, Snazzy Jazzy fifth. ‘Snazzy’ won the Silver back in 2018 when the going was heavy like this but is a bit long in the tooth now for a slog in the mud at age 8.
⭕ 4.35 Exeter David Pipe’s Red Happy, seen only a year back in the Newbury Gold Cup and the London National at Sandown Park, has slid 33lb down the handicap. He’s also dropped a mile and more in trip.
Last time he did that, down to 18-20 furlongs and a 106 rating, he rattled off a hat-trick in the space of 15 days.
⭕ 5.30 Chelmsford Ralph Beckett is on a hat-trick today after a 44-1 double at Kempton last night.
Rossa Ryan (six winners in three days) rides Haydock winner Leadenhall, visored first time on a track Beckett farms with a 22% strike rate and an astonishing 44% in places.
As a William Haggas representative, Turquoise Diamond is an obvious danger but drifted like a lonely dog on a raft overnight, coming back in a couple of points when layers took fright at the offers.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
3.05 Worcester (win 20, nap)
BET 10pts win RICKETY BRIDGE
3.55 Ayr (win 15)
BET 3pts win ASCOT ADVENTURE
BET 1pt stakes saver ADMIRAL D
4.35 Exeter (win 12)
BET 12pts win RED HAPPY
5.30 Chelmsford (win 12)
BET 5.25pts win LEADENHALL
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