3-1 NAP FOR SCRUTINEER DAQMAN: Daqman’s had at least one winner a day for 17 of the last 19. Yesterday’s was aptly called Scrutineer (WON 3-1, nap). With Ayr lost to the weather, he has to switch to the jumps for a best bet today.
ARC COUNTDOWN: DAY 2: After yesterday talking up Almanzor, he reveals today why that one and the Arc de Triomphe favourite, Postponed, have little to fear from the Derby three-year-olds.
ARC COUNTDOWN: THE DODGY DERBYS
We now know we had a sub-standard Epsom Derby. The winner, Harzand, has beaten just two Group-2 animals since. The race has been left behind.
One of the colts in question, Idaho, was also placed behind Harzand in the Irish Derby, which repetition only makes things worse. Apart from Idaho, this is how the form worked out after Epsom:
The second, US Army Ranger (pictured), has been second and fourth in Group 3 and the fourth, Wings Of Desire, runner-up in the King George but 19 lengths adrift of Postponed in the York International.
Fifth, Humphrey Bogart, down the field three times since, as low as Group-3 level; sixth Red Verdon beaten twice since, including fourth in the Irish Derby; 7th Algometer has won Group 3; and 8th Cloth of Stars is the other colt to win a Group 2.
In the Irish Derby, in which Idaho was second to Harzand, the third, Stellar Mass, has won a Group 3 and been last in a Group 3; the 5th Port Douglas hasn’t run since; 6th Moonlight Magic, third in a Group 3 and down the field to Almanzor in the Irish Champion Stakes; 7th Shogun twice beaten in Group-3s since.
The Epsom 10th Deauville, Group-1 winner and third, is probably the best to redeem himself. But those successes were not in England or Ireland but in America.
Deauville, Order Of St George, Highland Reel, Found, Minding, Idaho, US Army Ranger, Ballydoyle and Seventh Heaven are still all possibles for Aidan O’Brien.
But those Derby results suggest that his probables are few against Almanzor and Postponed, who now look giants of the race.
CROWLEY’S THE 33.0 DEER STALKER
3.05 Sedgefield Kapstadt is quickly out again, down a couple of grades from his late finish in a Listed at Market Rasen at the weekend. Take the hint.
5.40 Wolverhampton Peter Chapple-Hyam is in full flow, with more winners this month than for the rest of 2016, and Redicean is being supported this morning as if defeat is out of the question on the back of his Ascot run.
Redicean looks particularly interesting switched to the Tapeta, since he is related to some good AW winners.
6.10 Wolverhampton Trying to keep my winner-a-day sequence going without ‘real racing’ is not ideal!
A first-time hood could be the sound of music to Doeadeer, with Jim Crowley booked, and handler Keith Dalgleish having trained 44 winners on this course, bridging its transition to Tapeta.
Doeadeer is 33.0 on BETDAQ this morning, despite making a 540-mile round-trip from Lanarkshire for this.
7.40 Wolverhampton Quality, such as it us, comes through in this one: the last five winners have all carried between 9st 10lb and 10st, suggesting that the rags down the bottom of the handicap are not even worth sorting through.
The usual late-season form by Luca Cumani has been spasmodic, and the Cumani lemmings have burnt their fingers on such as Banksea.
But he has a 26% strike rate at Wolver and has booked Adam Kirby for his sole raider, Al.
From a late-developing family, and has had just three runs this year. There were 5.3 offers on BETDAQ early mouse.
Be Perfect hasn’t put back-to-back wins together since 2012 but, if the visor works a second time, Royal Reef could follow up his recent Wolver win by seven lengths from the front over 2m.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 8pts win (nap) KAPSTADT (3.05 Sedgefield)
BET 9pts win REDICEAN (5.40 Wolverhampton)
BET 1pt win and place DOEADEER (6.10 Wolverhampton)
BET 6pts win AL and 2pts win (stakes saver) ROYAL REEF (7.40 Wolverhampton)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
