IT’S DAQMAN THE LEGEND! Daqman landed two winning bets out of four yesterday, thanks to Aficionado (WON 9-4) and a place bet on Norse Legend (2nd 12-1), who kept on well but was just run out of it. That gave him 2-2 at Fontwell.
CRACKING BETDAQ HANDICAP: Tonight’s Kempton Park card presents the London Middle-Distance Series Final as the BETDAQ 50% Commission Refund Handicap, an absolute cracker, lining up 14 winners of 63 races for a guaranteed £60,000.
TOMORROW: GOLD CUP ABC: Look out tomorrow for another of the famous Daqman ABC checks on facts and stats for the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday. Today he looks back at pointers from that meeting.
PLOTTING THE PATH TO THE FESTIVAL
What have these horses in common? Ballyalton, Darlan, Karabak, Noland, Tidal Bay. Answer: they all finished first or second at the Cheltenham Festival after winning at this weekend’s two-day meeting there.
In fact, those five ran in the novices’ hurdle which is the last race on the opening day, Friday. Cornish Rebel, Darkness (opening novice chase) were other winners afterwards placed at the festival.
In the last decade, the Triumph Hurdle Trial has produced the winner of the big-race itself only with Katchit (2006, festival 2007) – look out for Sea The Stars on Saturday – and the novices-chase on the same card gave us just one Arkle winner, Tidal Bay (2007 for 08).
In the weeks leading up to the festival, I will be looking back at where the winners came from, race by race, as your best guide to ante-post betting.
Meanwhile, the big race on Saturday, the December Gold Cup, which has been variously sponsored over the years, had its best day recently in 2006 with Exotic Dancer, who went on to be second in the 2007 Gold Cup proper.
Caid Du Berlais is the gambled-on favourite to follow up (as did Exotic Dancer) on his PP Gold Cup success. But Dancer is the only one ever to pull it off
Champion Hurdle trialist, Vaniteux, is subject of bullish remarks from trainer Nicky Henderson for Saturday’s International Hurdle, in which he may clash with The New One.
GUEST SET TO TURN OVER GRENDISAR
5.15 Kempton Park (Betdaq £30 Free Bet And 3% Comm Maiden Stakes) Chris Wall (Cloud Seven) and Andrew Balding (High Admiral) are in terrific form but their horses are drawn high, and I think the race rests between John Gosden and Saeed Bin Suroor, both saddling horses of such pedigree that they were entered in the Derby.
So were 407 others, and both Mr Singh and Stay Strong are unlikely to make it to Epsom, but they were intended to be the cream of their generation and must start somewhere.
5.50 Kempton Park (Cash Out On The Betdaq+ App Maiden Stakes) These are maidens of a different ilk, including an unraced 10-year-old!
Charlie Appleby has had 12 of his last 14 runners finish in the first four since November 26, including a quartet of winners. New Year’s Night will be a short price to continue his run.
But first-time hood is a worry, and there could be a final-furlong scramble involving Sighora, who would walk this, if only she could reproduce her Newmarket form.
6.20 Kempton Park (Betdaq 50% Commission Refund Handicap, London Middle-Distance-Series Final) I’ll try to give you chapter and verse on this one; double discount or what! Yes, I’ve resorted to picking names, so strong is this handicap, stretching 24lb from top to bottom, like those of the good old days.
Half the field has already won at class-2 level; all bar one has won a race this year; 12 of the 14 have already scored at Kempton, no few than eight of them over CD.
So where do we find an edge? Well, in BETDAQ-exchange betting, you look for an edge against, for lay purposes, at the same time trying to eliminate losers in your quest for a winning bet.
Firstly, stables out of form: though a great deal is being written about Grendisar this morning – no wonder, after his 17 out of 19 in the frame – Marco Botti hasn’t had a winner since mid-November. He’s on 19 straight losers.
Mike Murphy (Chapter And Verse) has gone 90 days without a winner; Robert Mills (Rydan) has gone 77 days; William Knight (Noble Gift) 58 and John Bridger (Starwatch) 55.
Strangely, all those I’ve listed from the yards badly out of form are well drawn in this race. It tends to suggest that we should note, particularly, others in handy stalls whose stables are doing well.
Bancnuanaheireann has just scored from a string that had another winner yesterday, but he’s seven now, has never won off his high mark and rarely puts two good runs together, certainly not two successes.
George Margarson’s horses are running 100% to their potential, according to the Racing Post, and Rebellious Guest has already won a BETDAQ handicap on this course, when Bancnuanaheireannn was behind.
He was caught in traffic in the Winter Derby but finished third off 5lb higher than today in the Rosebery Handicap, a neck behind the runner-up, Grendisar, with whom he’s a stone better off today.
This is as far as Rebellious Guest wants to go, but he’s clearly in with a big shout from stall 7. Next door, in 8, Double Discount is weighted to reverse recent placings with Solidarity, who is drawn out in the car park.
Solidarity is still one of the favourites this morning, so impressive was he in holding Double Discount that day and, as a three-year-old, may still have scope for improvement.
But he has to give more than a stone to another of his age, Anglophile, who is a stone better for a short head with Bancnuanaheireannn. I shall punt Rebellious Guest (7.8 on BETDAQ as I write) and take Anglophile (6.2) as the stakes saver.
6.50 Kempton Park (Betdaq Commission Free Football On Saturdays Handicap) Another stable that can do no wrong at the moment is at Barbury Castle, with Alan King sending out 27 placed in the first four from 34 starters, including 10 winners.
Not many are Flat animals, of course, and Ridgeway Storm, who got off the mark in a maiden on this course, has been beaten favourite since, and I remember him running very flat at Chester over today’s trip, so probably not to be trusted.
It’s all a matter of whether this two miles will bring out the best in him, with Spiritofmintoul and Jelly Fish already course winners at the trip, but ‘Spirit’ has to give weight all round and Jelly Fish is another quirky sort.
There are four or five potential front-runners in the field, and you can expect at least one of Bathwick Street, Flashman, Purple Spectrum, Sagesse and Snowy Dawn to force a decent pace. They could all go off together and cut each other’s throat.
Of the hold-up horses, I fancy Charlie Wells, who was well out the back door in a slow-run CD race here late last month, and gets a lump of weight from the other fancied horses.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Stakes represent chance from 1 to 10, but target set to win 30 points in the big BETDAQ race tonight at morning offers)
BET 2pts win on each STAY STRONG and MR SINGH (5.15 Kempton)
BET (to win 30 points) 4pts win REBELLIOUS GUEST (nap) and 1pt win (stakes saver) ANGLOPHILE (6.20 Kempton)
BET 5pts win CHARLIE WELLS (6.50 Kempton)
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