THE STORIES BEHIND THE NATIONAL 2015: Today and tomorrow, Daqman looks behind the scenes of the Grand National 2015, as revealed by today’s publication of the weights. His ante-post bets will be published tomorrow.
TODAY: STOPPED IN THEIR TRACKS: Today he spots the runners helped by the handicapper and others placed at a serious disadvantage, and he tells what to look out for in the ante-post market.
TOMORROW: HE TIPS HIS OUTSIDER: Tomorrow he reveals one runner sure to have its odds reduced because of a top trainer’s clever plan. Plus the essential ingredients which point to a horse not mentioned in the today’s papers!
WHY PUNISH THE AINTREE HORSE NEXT DOOR?
What do they have in common? Ballycasey, Boston Bob, Burton Port, Carlingford Lough, Many Clouds, Teaforthree and Unioniste. Answer: all have been allowed 2, 3 and 5lb off their ratings to tempt them to the Grand National.
Those with fully 5lb off their official assessment are Carlingford Lough, the Leopardstown Hennessy winner, and Unioniste, winner of a big chase at Sandown in January but only sixth in the Newbury Hennessy.
A more difficult question to answer is why Alderwood, Living Next Door, Lord Windermere, Make A Track, Mr Murphy, Roi Du Mee and Rubi Light must race at Liverpool with MORE than their official rating.
In the case of Alderwood, 7lb more seems particularly harsh. He hasn’t won a race since the Grand Annual at Cheltenham in March, 2013, and never won a chase beyond 2m 1f.
Living Next Door is 5lb higher, which is 17lb up on his last winning mark; Make A Track has a 4lb-extra imposition, and Roi Du Mee 3lb, which puts him 7lb above his successful Tramore rating on the first day of the year.
Unless Carlingford Lough – top of 98 probables when the handicapper revealed weights at this year’s ceremony in London yesterday – defects from the race in spite of the handicapper’s generosity, 22 are out of the handicap. Some 19 are set to carry 11st or more.
ONLY 18 OF 98 IN THE NATIONAL CAN WIN
How the market changes! In the time before Cheltenham, the Grand National market is set around the horses the bookies fear and the hype and high hopes of a few favoured by the Press.
At this stage most bookies concur about the front of the market; exchanges, too. But the weeks after Cheltenham will see the firming up of stable plans and, as the time draws nearer, bookies odds will remain tight but BETDAQ offers will open right up as layers feel their way and make creative offers.
It’s in this period, before the big firms try to use the exchanges to shore up their liabilities, that the best offers can be found.
But there are some good spots now where layers – bookie and exchange alike – fail to respond to the essential ingredients that nine times out of 10 dictate the National winner.
Tomorrow I’ll tell you why only 18 of the 98 runners should be considered when you fill up your ante-post wallet. I’ll reveal one horse that has its running schedule geared to the weights by a top trainer. And I’ll pick an outsider not mentioned in this morning’s papers.
Don’t forget that Cheltenham factor. Likely runners at Cheltenham cannot be backed now until their fate at the festival is known, and decisions are then made about their Aintree participation.
Obviously that brings in Boston Bob, Carlingford Lough, Lord Windermere, Many Clouds and Sam Winner, all listed in the Gold Cup market.
Remember, your best ante-post bets are those intended for a trade, in that you want a horse or horses which will reduce in price before the big day. And that’s where the Gold Cup – and other races at Cheltenham – becomes a big tease, viewed in advance of the festival.
If you knew that one of the five I listed would run well in the Gold Cup and then go on to the National at massively reduced odds, you could make a massive Aintree trade from the following offers on BETDAQ this morning:
The Gold Cup is just one BETDAQ temptation: 132.0 Carlingford Lough, 122.0 Boston Bob, 68.0 Lord Windermere, 60.0 Many Clouds, 31.0 Sam Winner. Check out the rest of Cheltenham and match prospects with the Liverpool betting.
ROBBIE TO MAKE GRAND DONCASTER STAND
3.25 Doncaster Four Grand National runners, take part in the veterans’ race at Doncaster (3.25) this afternoon. Sounds an unlikely rite of passage to Aintree.
But, if you fancy them for the National, you could get on this morning at BETDAQ offers of 43.0 Alvarado, 54.0 Burton Port, 64.0 Oscar Time and 280.0 Ikorodu Road
This afternoon’s race should certainly tell us something, since Reaping The Reward and Aachen are both entered in the veterans’ event at the Cheltenham Festival, for which they are currently strong in the market.
As for the National, well Alvarado (last year) and Oscar Time (in 2013) have both finished fourth in the big race already.
I could not back Oscar for Aintree but, despite his 14 years, he will take some beating this afternoon. Needing the run today, Alvarado’s only race in the last year has been that fourth in the National.
That’s not the form of a National winner unless he can show us a better constitution and run well here and in at least one other race before the big day on April 11.
Burton Port, who unseated rider in the National last year, went close in the Sandown Gold Cup three weeks later. He’s been disappointing since, though sometimes his stable has been out of form. Must now be on the way back if he is to do well in the Spring again.
Aachen looks well weighted here but is not certain to see out the trip. Robbie has also been winning over shorter trips but he’s a hold-up horse, has got his ground and loves Don caster. I think his 12.0 outsider of today’s field is wrong. Good each-way value.
When you pick a horse ante-post, you also have to get involved with his form, and his collateral form, even in races that don’t concern him. You must be able to face up to the test of your own judgement, or you shouldn’t have been on that horse in the first place.
If you joined me in backing Pain Au Chocolat at 39.0 for the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham – now around 19.0 – you must back Devilment big time in a lowly race at Doncaster today.
Charlie Mann is badly out of form. Otherwise Superb Story (2.55) might have been forgiven his lapse under a penalty in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial, now that he gets good ground.
Superb Story is one of those (11-2 paper forecast) that have drifted this morning into a 9.2 bar one situation on BETDAQ, with the other penalised runner yes, it’s Devilment – is the one they all want.
He’s a John Ferguson hurdler and he’s a Tony McCoy ride, and Devilment is a front or van runner, so unlikely to become any easier to back before or during the race.
Superb Story, Dandy Duke, Needless Shouting and Moon Over Rio have also been front-running or, often more precisely with these inexperienced youngsters, are exuberant types not happy with restraint.
That’s why I think hold-up horse Lil Rockerfeller, who wasn’t far behind Devilment at Wrtherby, is likely to give him most to do.
Both Devilment and Lil Rockerfeller have been beaten by Pain Au Chocolat and we badly want a one-two from them today to boost our Cheltenham chances.
DAQMAN’S BETS (1 to 9 stakes show the strength; 10 is a banker)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) DEVILMENT (2.55 Doncaster)
BET 3pts win and place ROBBIE and 2pts win (stakes saver) OSCAR TIME (3.15 Doncaster)
BET 6pts win MILAN BOUND and 3pts win WICKED SPICE (3.55 Doncaster)
BET 2pts win and place on each DESERT RECLUSE and KUDU COUNTRY (4.15 Ludlow)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£30 FREE BET & 0% COMM MULTIPLES
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
