9-2 WINNER AND BANKER STRIKE: Daqman finished yesterday with a profit of 28 points after landing his 10-point banker, Gale Force (WON evens), and eight-point bet Khelman (WON 9-2). He opens his column with a special thankyou to this ‘nice little earner.’
ANOTHER MAXIMUM BET TODAY: Today’s Flat racing is meagre fare so Daqman looks for something tasty over jumps at Southwell and finds a follow-up banker. In a rare move, he recommends one to follow in Ireland.
USE BETDAQ BENEFITS IN LIFE OF EACH MARKET
I’m not fond of clusters. That’s not a new breakfast cereal but a staple ingredient of all sequences in any game of chance or gambling.
Throw up a penny and, in the long term, it will come down a similar number of heads to tails, but there will be times when heads prevail and when there are runs the other way around, tails seeming to dominate. Draw up a chart showing the distribution of results of your throws, and you’ll always see clusters.
It’s the same with tipping, same with betting. You can’t win all of the time and, when winners and losers are evenly spaced out, it’s easy to adjust your stakes.
But sometime in a week or a month, or a season, you and I, both, can expect a whole bunch of winners, or a worrying run of losers.
So it is that I had a clean sweep one day last week, then a couple of days of losers. Yesterday was preferable: a nice little earner.
But can you do anything about it? The answer is, yes you can; quite a lot. That’s ‘you’, not ‘me.’ I am expected to tip every day in several races, inevitably at morning offers only, so my manoeuvrability is limited, though my staking plans do try to overcome this.
But you, the punter, can make adjustments which I will be discussing in future articles, starting next week.
Meanwhile, use the benefits of BETDAQ, which are that you can deal in a race, trading and compromising on your bets, throughout the life of each market.
In terms of what is published, I can only look on and grit my teeth, as the day progresses, though pleasingly often I’ll see money for a horse I have tipped at bigger offers on BETDAQ.
And I’ve been checking out what races, and in what conditions, this tends to happen. Such trends are important to profitability. But I still don’t like clusters.
IT’S THE MOMENT OF TRUTH FOR SHADEN AT BATH
When is a cluster not a cluster? While trainers can also expect good runs and bad runs, long sequences of losers are far more significant for the punter.
Stuart Howe (2,625 days without a winner) and Bill Turner (1,081 days) have been saddling horses at Bath empty-handed for years. And, in the Racing Post ‘Cold Trainers’ list, it is revealed that Edward Bevan
has now sent out 60 starters in 705 days without a single success.
It would seem that we can draw a line through their runners at Bath today, and it may be that other factors in their races will help us reduce the fields still further.
3.50 Bath I couldn’t understand why the royal runner, Ring Of Truth (around 3.7), was a bigger offer than Shaden (only 2.16) in the BETDAQ opening market for this race.
Shaden gets very wound up before her races and was stone last of 20 at Royal Ascot – albeit lost a shoe – when Ring Of Truth was involved at the business end, seventh.
Ring Of Truth can be forgiven her Chester run – as is often the case – and another worry about Shaden is that trainer Lady Cecil has had a very poor turf season, with just four wins, two of them by Shaden.
GODOLPHIN HAVE LINGFIELD RACE IN THE BAG
4.00 Lingfield When a class-4 race is the highlight of the day, you have to find something, and at least we are away from the heavy ground on the turf course.
It’s a bit of a heads up that Sir Michael Stoute (Monasada) has won only maiden races with his last 26 starters, and he’s been missing strike with six seconds or thirds in the last five days, most of them short prices.
Saeed Bin Suroor, on the other hand, has had 11 in the frame from 14 runners, seven of them winners, and Super Kid drops down to this grade for the first time after five races at a higher level.
First-time hood (Little Prairie) and visor (Marmot) could make a difference to two of the runners, but Deerfield, who has been crying out for this step up in trip, looks most dangerous.
Super Kid and Deerfield are both Godolphin horses, so I dutched them this morning at 7.8 and 5.6 offers on BETDAQ.
5.00 Lingfield Royal Reef, bred to be useful on AW, was a good win-and-place price at 12.5 this morning for a trainer going for his hat trick on Polytrack after two out of two at Kempton recently.
MULLINS’ YOUNGSTER ONE FOR THE NOTEBOOK
4.55 Gowran Park I don’t often venture over the Irish Sea, except for big meetings but I’m told that 17.0 on BETDAQ this morning was an offer that can’t be refused, if you want to start following Laws Of Spin.
Trainer Willie Mullins has a better-than-50-percent win and place strike-rate with his few home Flat runners, though his juvenile winners are very few and far between.
But Laws of Spin, by the French Derby winner Lawman (out of Spinning Wheel), is related to a two-year-old winner and to Group scorers on the dam’s side.
Not knocked about on the debut and a favourite with some in the yard, despite the size and strength of the Co Carlow outfit. Coming out quickly today, just six days later.
The two quick runs should be education enough to set him up for an autumn victory. One for the longer term.
LILY WAUGH LOOKS BETTER CLASS AT SOUTHWELL
THE NAP I wouldn’t buy most of today’s Flat runners for my hack. So I’m looking for a nap at Southwell, where Lily Waugh (2.40) looks different class and yet was odds against this morning.
She looked poised to make an impression when backed down to 10-1 at the Punchestown Festival – but it wasn’t to be – after running second at Cheltenham.
The danger, Urcalin, had a hard time adjusting to fences, and beat only chasing losers at Uttoxeter on the last day.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9pts on strength, 10pts for a Banker)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) LILY WAUGH (2.40 Southwell)
BET 6pts win RING OF TRUTH (3.50 Bath)
BET 4pts win DEERFIELD and 3pts win SUPER KID (4.00 Lingfield)
BET 1pt win and place LAWS OF SPIN (4.55 Gowran Park)
BET 1.5pts win and place ROYAL REEF (5.00 Lingfield)
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