FIVE CONSECUTIVE BEST BETS UP: The Tony McCoy winner Southfield Royale yesterday gave Daqman five winning best bets in a row, with back-to-back naps, following three consecutive bankers:
WON 1-1 Shantou Village (banker)
WON 8-13 Romstal (gold banker)
WON 15-8 Windshear (banker)
WON 4-5 The Eaglehaslanded (nap)
WON 8-13 Southfield Royale (nap)
GRAND NATIONAL COUNTDOWN: Daqman writes an open letter this morning, asking one of the race’s winning trainers to switch one of his best Aintree chances to the Irish Grand National on Monday.
LIVERPOOL 2015 COULD BE A LOST CAUSE
(OPEN LETTER TO TRAINER GORDON ELLIOTT)
Dear Gordon Elliott,
First I would like to thank you for a superb training performance in winning the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham with my 44.0 BETDAQ ante-post bet, Cause Of Causes. But I won’t thank you for running him in the Aintree Grand National.
Racing is racing and what do racehorses do if not race but, in my many years of tipping and commenting on the sport, there is one thing I find fault with: that is, when young horses are pitched too soon into top company or arduous races which are normally too much for them.
Cause Of Causes is quite well experienced as a chaser, with 11 starts, though winning only the one, that day this March at Cheltenham.
But the handicapper says he has not improved a single pound since he was only 12th in last April’s Fairyhouse Irish Grand National, while the winner of that race, Shutthefrontdoor, is now favourite for the Aintree National, rated 11lb higher.
It will be a great feat if Shutthefrontdoor can take the National at only eight years of age. It’s been done only once in 21 years, by Bindaree (2002), and only once more before that since Red Rum in 1973.
How much tougher a task is it for Cause Of Causes, who is still only seven. No seven-year-old has won the gruelling Liverpool test since Golden Miller (1934), unless you wish to count the war-time National won by Bogskar (1940).
Yes, Gordon you’ve won the Aintree National before, and I thank you for that, too: I was on Silver Birch (2007) at 33-1. But he was a 10-year-old.
The Irish National next Monday is much more suitable for Cause Of Causes, if only because it is less severe and has been captured by a string of super seven-year-olds. Seven of them in 20 years.
But hold your horses, there again now! I said ‘super’ seven-year-olds; that’s my journalistic phraseology. It’s not entirely true.
They may have been ‘super’ on the day, but the 1999 winning seven-year-old never ran in another steeplechase; the 2000 winner went straight on to take the Punchestown Gold Cup but could take only a small race after that in 27 attempts.
In 2001, yet another seven-year-old winner; this time they played him all season and he landed more aces. But it took him 25 starts after that to win a lowly hurdle race before turning to cross-country. In 2008 and 2009, the seven-year-old winners would never score again, neither one of them.
I can teach you nothing about racing, Gordon, but I can – and should – remind you of the hardships of Liverpool for a young horse and that even the safer option for the future well-being of Cause Of Causes, that of Fairyhouse, is still strewn with horses with their powers exhausted by the one event.
Sincerely, Daqman
LAYERS CAN EXPECT A SQUARE BASHING
FLAT 4.00 Chelmsford This is a cracking class-2 contest. All are winners of one or more of their last two races but all bar the bottom pair, Urban Castle and Norab, are trying to leap a couple of levels in grade, and none has experience of this new track.
The one most likely to take a step forward is the unexposed Jeremy Noseda colt, Wakea, first ride in England – and only ride today – for William Buick after his sensational World Cup win on the eight-year-old outsider Prince Bishop in Dubai at the weekend.
6.45 Kempton Wakea’s yard has booked Jimmy Fortune for a double bid at Kempton Park tonight with Ian’s Memory and Aussie Andre (7.15).
But Ian’s Memory has needed the aid of a visor to get off the mark and the odds-on shot he beat at Southwell was being four times a bridesmaid (2222).
Second and third at Southwell to Vivat Rex, on the other hand, were winners before or after his seven-lengths romp last week, and he’s now 2-2 under claimer David Parkes, who more or less negates the nominal penalty.
But there’s a classy sort with a chance if he’s fit, and stable form suggests he might be. Clive Cox has a 25% strike-rate on AW this year.
His six-year-old Highland Duke (19.5 on BETDAQ thgis morning) is reappearing after nearly a year off but is a winner two grades higher than this, today’s claimer scoring on him at Goodwood.
Highland Duke is a ‘glass’ horse these days who has to be ‘got up’ for a one-off, and it could be today.
Silverheels has been the bridesmaid so far this year but is better off with Loyalty, who short-headed him at Lingfield in receipt of 8lb, and he was the ‘moral’ again at Deauville, giving weight to the winner, going down less than a length: 8.2 early mouse looks big.
8.45 Kempton Horses don’t often put back-to-back wins together at class-6 level but Baltic Prince did so before Christmas and his recent CD-winning rider, Tom Marquand, can claim his full 7lb allowance here.
The one that might give him most to do for a stable in cracking form is Quickaswecan, down 12lb and two grades on his close third over CD in December: 8.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
JUMPS 4.20 Wincanton A horse that’s with the champion trainer and is 8lb clear on official ratings yet, including his rider’s allowance, receives 15lb from his nearest rival, a 14-year-old!
Merrion Square must be a banker in the hunters’ chase, returning 50% of your stake on BETDAQ this morning.
The meeting is livened by the presence of Tony McCoy, with one of his mounts, Storm In September, in the bumper for Irish raider ‘Shark’ Hanlon.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 10 for strength, double stakes the banker)
BET 8pts win WAKEA (4.00 Chelmsford)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) MERRION SQUARE (4.20 Wincanton)
BET 3pts win SILVERHEELS, and 1pt win and place HIGHLAND DUKE (6.45 Kempton)
BET 4pts win on each BALTIC PRINCE and QUICKASWECAN (8.45 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5pts win double WAKEA (4.00 Chelmsford) and MERRION SQUARE (4.20 Wincanton) and 2 x 1pt win trebles the same two with BALTIC PRINCE and QUICKASWECAN (8.45 Kempton)
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