ASCOT COUNTDOWN: STOUTE MAGIC: Daqman’s day-by-day ante-post analysis of some of the Royal Ascot races a week in advance turns up yet another older horse finding improvement under the expert eye of Sir Michael Stoute. But two of the top ratings in the race are 17.0 and 19.5 on BETDAQ.
HAYDOCK NAP: It’s a thin day in terms of quality but DAQMAN spots a couple of bets on the Haydock card in the class 3 handicap at 3.00 and a nap in the 4.30.
ROYAL ASCOT ULYSSES PARTY
4.20 Royal Ascot, (Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, Wednesday next) Ever since a purple patch of Manduro, Vision d’Etat and Byword – two of them trained Andre Fabre – between 2007 and 2010, the French have had this race in their diary.
Cloth of Stars, who has landed a hat-trick this year, is poised (at around 5-1 in the BETDAQ ante-post orange) to give Fabre a third success.
You have improved chances at Ascot because of so many are conditions races at level weights or nearly so, and the ratings alone can see you through. But French raiders are difficult to assess.
Winners of this in the last six seasons have come to the race off between 117 to 125, four of them on 120 or higher.
Without assessments for the Irish and French until the declaration stage, the current ratings leaders are Jack Hobbs, Mutakayyef and My Dream Boat, all on 120, and offered 3.55, 19.5 and 17.0 respectively in the BETDAQ ante-post orange.
Ulysses (just behind Jack Hobbs with offers of 4.0) has only a 116 OR and needs to find more. But, if anyone can find it for him, it’s his trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, whose story is an odyssey of improving older horses.
This Friday is Bloomsday, which celebrates 16 June 1904, as depicted in James Joyce’s novel, Ulysses. But I’m sure employees of the horse’s owners, Flaxman Stables in Ireland, will keep the party going for a few more days.
5.00 Royal Ascot, (Royal Hunt Cup, Wednesday next) Recent form is the key to many a race. Not so in the Royal Hunt Cup, which is won by horses who have been prepped with the odd race or, in some cases, none at all.
What they do have in common is strong form from the previous year’s Royal Ascot, sometimes in the Hunt Cup itself, or in the Cambridgeshire of the previous autumn.
Battle of Marathon, Gm Hopkins (a previous winner for John Gosden) and Foxtrot Charlie have all made quiet starts to the season.
Battle Of Marathon, fifth last year, is 3lb lower after undistinguished form since. Gm Hopkins is 7lb lower and carries only 2lb more than when he won it in 2015.
Foxtrot Charlie is interesting wherever he goes next on a sound surface. He was reckoned a Group-3 performer last season but has been stymied by soft ground in Ireland. His trainer Dermot Weld is a formidable raider to England’s shores.
AN ORIGINAL CHOICE AT HAYDOCK
3.00 Haydock With Ascot less than a week away it’s hard to find much in terms of quality across the country today but this class 3 at Haydock does at least look both competitive and includes several potential improvers.
Sir Michael Stoute won it last year and another Newmarket raider Original Choice from the William Haggas yard could well be the one today.
He acts with give in the ground as he showed when winning his maiden at Redcar last season and reappeared to win a decent handicap at Wolverhampton.
A resulting hike in the weights and possibly the faster ground were probably contributing factors to a poor run at Ascot last time out but it did come in a £30,000 class 2 race and with conditions more favourable underfoot today he is worth another chance given the handicapper has dropped him 3lb since Ascot.
Omeros won a Chelmsford maiden on his only start 237 days ago but 83 looks a harsh starting mark and this is his first race since then.
Sidewinder is up another 4lb as he bids for a hat-trick of Haydock wins. His previous two wins though have come on good to firm ground and it’s now expected to be good to soft. He only scrambled home last time and might be in the grip of the handicapper.
Hugin scored with plenty in hand at Newcastle but again looks to have been set a high starting mark from the handicapper who has very much gone on the side of caution.
Fire Brigade is versatile ground wise and wasn’t disgraced when fourth in a valuable class 2 here last time out.
4.30 Haydock An intriguing handicap which pits the bang in form Mutadaffeq against the potential of the Godolphin runner First Voyage.
The David O’Meara trained Mutadaffeq didn’t show much on the all-weather last season but seems a different character on turf this season winning both his starts at Thirsk (off 73) and Pontefract (off 82). He’s up a further 6lb in the weights today which sets a few alarm bells ringing for me.
Preference is for First Voyage who handled give in the ground on his debut at Pontefract and improved on each of his two subsequent starts – including making all the running to win at Nottingham in October.
The step-up in trip should be ideal and getting 4lb off Mutadaffeq might make all the difference in what looks a match on paper.
9.10 Kempton A two mile handicap to conclude the action at Kempton and Briac could be the one. He was a course and distance winner in March and shaped well at Lingfield last time out when fourth to Night Generation.
He is closely matched with Golly Miss Molly on that form but should be able to beat that one on a track he likes.
Author’s Dream has been costly to follow recently with defeats at 2/1 and 11/8 in his last two starts and was only ninth in the race that Briac finished fourth in at Lingfield.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win and 3pts place ORIGINAL CHOICE (3.00 Haydock)
BET 9pts win (nap) FIRST VOYAGE (4.30 Haydock)
BET 4pts win BRIAC (9.10 Kempton)
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