BETDAQ’S GOT IT THE RIGHT WAY ROUND: Still thinking about that amazing Arc? Now transpose the sweep of that right-hand bend to Kempton Park and, says Daqman, you have a similar problem, at a somewhat slower pace: can anything beat the inside draw? There are five BETDAQ-sponsored races on Britain’s number-one AW track with BETDAQ the right place for value.
ANOTHER PROFIT BUT NAP HELD AT BAY: Daqman finished in front yesterday, after Ventura Quest (WON 15-8) and Hamelin (WON 2-1 ), but his nap, Fennell Bay (2nd 4-1) was caught close home, beaten half a length at Wolverhampton last night.
Kempton sets us an Arc-type problem. It’s as far removed as you can get from Longchamp, yet our premier AW racetrack has one thing in common: a right-hand sweep which has punters fretting and fuming over the mysteries of the draw.
Few horses can overcome a wide berth at Longchamp. You expect a rails runner to win. But you can get a fast and furious rush down the outside to claim a prize a la Treve. Kempton, as the supreme tautology has it, is the exact same.
And, checking out the well-stocked handicaps over the appropriate distance at recent Kempton meetings, I find the results biased not to the low numbers (1, 2, 2, 3 and 5 have won) but to high or higher (10, 10, 9, 7, and 8 three times) by 7-5.
In choosing between a rails-hugger or a sweeping outside drive, remember that any draw bias is really only going to come into its own in handicaps.
Why? Because only in handicaps are the horses weighted to finish level, so there is no intrinsic class or ratings bias against you. In theory.
The London Middle Distance Series Qualifier among the BETDAQ sponsored races tonight (7.40) is 1m 3f round the oval, so horses swung wide, or ‘pinched off’ on the rails, have more time to sort themselves out and recover their position.
But the 7f charge (8.40 BETDAQ handicap tonight) can leave the high-drawn strewn out across the track or forced to tuck in behind the quick starters.
6.40 Kempton Park (Commission Free 1st Month At Betdaq Maiden Stakes, Division 1) This, on paper, looks a hot maiden with debutants from the Sir Michael Stoute, Roger Varian, Ed Dunlop and Roger Charlton yards all mixing it up with those with limited racecourse experience.
As always – follow the DAQ for market clues as the market evolves during the day. Cannock Chase, for Sir Michael Stoute, looks a very likely type on breeding. He cost 310,000 guineas as a yearling and the stable are doing well with their youngsters so far.
If we take Cannock Chase – we also have to ‘insure’ with a runner with form and the best of those looks to be Pearl Spectre who showed particular promise on debut when second at Newbury and has been given a break since a subsequent third at Sandown.
7.10 Kempton Park (Commission Free 1st Month At Betdaq Maiden Stakes, Division 2) Déjà vu in the second division of the maiden with a similar mix of experience and debutants.
Again, Sir Michael Stoute has a very interesting newcomer on paper. Sahara Desert, who runs in the Tabor, Smith and Mrs Magnier colours. A son of Montjeu he is a first foal from a dam who was Group placed at two-years-old. Again the BETDAQ market will help you decide.
The form standard is set by Hesbaan who ran well on debut here when fourth at 20/1 and has since gone on to finish second to Black Caesar at Newbury – although that form has taken a little knock this week with the third from the race, Stomp, putting in a disappointing effort at Pontefract.
I’ll go solo in this race with Sahara Desert.
7.40 Kempton Park (Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq Handicap) Another hugely competitive BETDAQ sponsored race and the market is struggling to sort it out. The draw, as mentioned above, is an interesting factor. Basically don’t put off by a high number despite what others may say. There’s 11 furlongs to sort itself out.
With this in the back of my mind I am going to chance Saoi in box 12. He’s one of the few in the race that could be genuinely well in at the weights. Most here are struggling off current handicap marks but Saoi is harder to quantify. He was only beaten a head off tonight’s mark when second at Lingfield and has been off the track since March so returns a fresh, and hopefully fit horse.
At around 16/1 on BETDAQ he looks of interest.
8.10 Kempton park (£200 Free Bets At Betdaq Nursery) At last a smaller field to look at! It was six runners but we’re down to five as Arrowzone, who was third at Catterick yesterday, is a non runner.
I’m very sweet here on the top weight Claim The Roses. He made a winning debut at Wolverhampton over this seven furlong trip but then faltered and was eased in the closing stages of a Newmarket nursery when sixth.
He proved none the worse though for that run and last time out was a winner over six furlongs here in good style. The hood is fitted again tonight and he might take a deal of beating against largely exposed rivals.
The step up to seven furlongs shouldn’t cause any problems and he can prove that his Group and Listed race entries are not fanciful.
8.40 Kempton Park (Betdaq 1st UK Race Commission Free Handicap) Given what I said about the draw, here you have, in Ocean Legend, a horse who’s done it both ways in recording eight course wins at Kempton.
He took a handy ‘pozzy’ when settled from stall 1 to win in September but was out in the car park, widest of all in nine (of eight starters!) when he swept down the outside and scored in March.
In June, Ocean Legend’s mistake (or rather Ryan Tate’s) had been to come early from a middle draw (6 of 11) and himself get swamped on the line by Restaurateur.
Restaurateur (in 12) had a dream run through that day but got even further behind when, drawn 14, he was beaten a good three lengths when only fifth to Ocean Legend in August.
All told, it’s a good example of how these handicappers win in their turn and why. But, heh, what’s this? Ocean Legend is not being claimed off tonight, passing a clear advantange at the weights to Restaurateur.
Lutine Bell has run in better races at Kempton and was a good second on Friday at Ascot. He’s a tricky customer but has stall 7 for a decent tuck in, and is 8lb lower than when he last raced on the course in the Spring.
Duke Cosimo won over 6f there in June and may go well returned to AW, but the handicapper insists that he has not improved on turf, keeping him on 81, because of surprisingly low-key performances on soft ground for a colt by Pivotal.
Of the other three-year-olds, Glanely has had knee trouble but likes a turning track. Secret Beau is a problem horse, for all his sequence of placed efforts.
His form on slow, soft and heavy gorund is 0023. On good, firmish or standard is 432321 and he should go well but his turnaround came after a wind op, and I see that it’s still a concern, as he’s fitted with a tongue-tie tonight.
I shall bet one on each side of the stalls: Lutine Bell, with Richard Hughes to cover him up down the rails side, and Restaurateur down the wide outside, or weaving through.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all bets are staked 5pts win today, and settled at SP)
CANNOCK CHASE and PEARL SPECTRE (6.40 Kempton)
SAHARA DESERT (7.10 Kempton)
SAOI (7.40 Kempton)
CLAIM THE ROSES (nap) (8.10 Kempton)
LUTINE BELL and RESTAURATEUR (8.40 Kempton)
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