CHOIR IS A ROCK-SOLID IMPROVER: Daqman follows Rock Choir today as she shadows the career of her full sister, Chorist, who reached Group-1 level after winning today’s feature race at Salisbury.
FOUR BETDAQ RACES AT KEMPTON: Handicap debuts by Midaz and Gone Dutch catch Daqman’s eye among four BETDAQ-sponsored races at Kempton Park tonight.
An improving filly is pure gold at this time of year. Rock Choir, who is entered as high as Group 1, and reckoned top class for next season, is a Value Bet at Salisbury (3.55) in the Listed mares’ and fillies’ race.
I rate a race ‘value’ to bet in, when it is sub-110% total probability in the Betdaq orange offers, and this race is 105% as I write, a punter-friendly medium, in which I fancy Rock Choir will prove in hindsight to be value herself at 3.65.
Andrew Balding saddles the danger, Bana Wu, worth a safety-net saver bet. Balding won this with Opera Gal (2012) after her flop (8th) in the Wolferton (Listed) Handicap at Royal Ascot. Bana Wu was third in the same event, but beaten only half a length.
Light Up My Life and Mango Diva (favourite) were 6th and 9th in another Listed at the royal meeting, where Gertrude Versed fell from grace, a poor 6th in the Ribblesdale (Group 2), and she was well outpointed in a Listed last time out.
Rock Choir looks well best of the Classic crop, a full sister to Group-1 Pretty Polly winner Chorist who won this Upavon Fillies’ race at Salisbury in 2002.
Since Hippy Hippy Shake has already captured her black type in a Listed, she has a 4lb penalty, which means she is giving 4lb to Bana Wu, though that one is officially rated 2lb higher. Neither may beat the progressive Rock Choir.
6.15 Kempton (£200 Free Bets At Betdaq Apprentice Handicap) Old-hand Nathan Alison – more than 20 winners on AW – needs to find some improvement in Strawberry Jam where Tom Queally failed in a BETDAQ handicap at the same venue a week ago.
Matthew Lawson, Amelia Green and Jack Garrity have still to get off the mark. George Buckell, who partners Neamour, has figures of 133 for his last three rides.
But the race may rest with Tim Clark on Lyric Piece and Charlie Bennett – though only one AW win this year – who gives Midaz his handicap bow from a race here in July which has thrown up winners.
Tim’s last five rides have all finished in the first five, with two wins and two placed, and his sole mount for Sir Mark Prescott this August was Newcastle winner, Szabo’s Art, a beaten favourite since under Luke Morris.
7.45 Kempton (Commission Free 1st Month At Betdaq Handicap) There are two handicap debutants here, Elusive Band and Gone Dutch, 9.8 and 9.4 respectively on BETDAQ this morning, as I write.
Brian Meehan has booked champion Richard Hughes for Elusive Band and slapped the blinkers on for the first time. Though showing just the one AW winner this year, Meehan’s Manton team is hitting the spot when the money’s down: two of their last three favourites on turf have scored at odds on. So watch the market!
James Fanshawe is in fab form, with a superb five wins from his last seven runners, four of them backed down to 4-1 or less, and Gone Dutch is his sole starter in nine days until he chooses from a batch of six on Friday.
Again, it’s a case for watching the market. But, from this distance over my cornflakes, the 9.4 Gone Dutch seems the right price to be speculative, based on the Fanshawe run of recent form.
Of the exposed horses, I can’t see High Time Too putting back-to-back wins together, and the pair at the front of the market, Moma Lee – back after a break – and On With The Dance both prefer to dictate. One of them can’t!
8.15 Kempton (Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq Nursery Handicap) The worry in a small field is usually lack of pace but all three runners in this have raced from the front. Of course, they might want to watch each other.
Legend Rising drops back from the pattern, 10th in the Group-2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot after cruising in at Chepstow. But both his wins have come on good-to-soft ground and his sire’s AW record is a stinker (1-59).
The Hannon stable is noted for cleaning up in nurseries but this one’s huge drop in class suggests he’s not all they thought he was. He may well win but he’s not one to put the mortgage on.
A free runner, Lady Frances (badly drawn at Newmarket) is by a sire who does well on a man-made surface and from a yard that seemingly loves to set them alight and play catch-me.
Sunset Shore’s win was when she made all in a similarly small field at Bath. She gets 18lb from the favourite and must try to make it tell.
9.15 Kempton (Betdaq 1st UK Commission Free Handicap) A high stall could be a hindrance in such a big field, with BETDAQ punters betting accordingly: only King Bertie (drawn 12) and Alnoomaas (10) from double-figure stalls were in the eight that made up the active market this morning, with 19.0 bar.
King Bertie has won at a mile but has failed to score since his maiden, which I never like to see. Since Alnoomaas likes to lead, his position is particularly tricky from the wide stall.
Richard Hughes can’t afford to use up a 6f winner (three of them here at Kempton) over this 7f. His form at 7f and 1m is 0000, including one at Kempton, so this will take all Hughsie’s expertise.
Hughes switches from Hidden Belief, on whom he won at Chepstow: the filly was first time in a hood that day and it hasn’t worked since, as is often the case. Rocky Reef’s success has come only in the mud.
So I see it between Eager To Bow and Charitable Act, with Charitable Act (drawn in 7 today) the ‘moral’ at Sandown last time, giving 8lb when beaten by a nose. His first ever race broke his maiden here two years ago.
From the neighbouring stall 6, Eager To Bow, a CD winner three times, won when fresh last year but has taken time to regain his form this time around, though probably unlucky at Lingfield in June (fourth, denied a clear run).
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 7.5pts win (nap) ROCK CHOIR and 2pts win (stakes saver) BANA WU (3.55 Salisbury)
BET 5.2pts win MIDAZ and 4pts win (stakes saver) LYRIC PIECE (6.15 Kempton)
BET 4pts win MOMA LEE and 2.3pts win GONE DUTCH (7.45 Kempton)
BET 5.5pts win SUNSET SHORE (8.15 Kempton)
BET 4.7pts win EAGER TO BOW and 3.7pts win CHARITABLE ACT (9.15 Kempton)
DAQMAN’S TARGETS
New readers start here: Daqman’s bets are each staked at the morning BETDAQ offers to win 20 points, except ‘stakes savers’ which are bets to cover the stakes on the main selection.
Daqman usually bets so that one winner would cover all his other stakes on the day – two wins and you’re making a nice profit – but today he twice splits his stakes and expects at least two winners.
Points are whatever you want them to be. If you bet in fivers, then 5pts win is £25. Start with a bank which is at least 12 times your maximum stake (Daqman’s points maximum is 20 for a banker).
Maximum stake on lays is 10pts, so that keeping track of the bets is easy for you (yesterday’s 12pts was a typo error).
Look out on Friday, Saturday and Sunday for Gold Value Bets, which will be explained on the day.
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