GREAT YORKSHIRE ABC GUIDE: Look out today for one of Daqman’s famous ABC big-race guides, as he examines the credentials of runners in Saturday’s Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster.
JUILLEY IS NAPPED TO TANGO AT CATTERICK: Daqman then checks out the best from four scheduled English meetings this afternoon. His nap is at Catterick and he finds value at Ayr also.
GOOD-NIGHT GRANDAD AT THE WEIGHTS!
3.15 Doncaster, Saturday (Great Yorkshire Chase) After two wins and two seconds at Doncaster, Night In Milan – already with James Reveley booked to ride – seems on course for another good Town Moor run in the Great Yorkshire on Saturday.
Night In Milan got within a head of Grandads Horse over course and distance in December, and is 4lb better off in Saturday’s big race.
The pair head the ABC stats check, along with If In Doubt, a top-class hurdler who is learning the ropes fast over fences. Close behind is Easter Day for Paul Nicholls, who has been picking off the plum Saturday races since Christmas. Here’s how the current leading contenders fared in my analysis:
A Aged seven, eight or nine (9 out of 10)
B Carrying 10st 9lb or higher (6 out of 7)
C Three or four runs that season (6 out of 7)
D Winner over 3m+ or in Graded race
ABCD Grandads Horse
Back-to-back wins this winter, stepping up from class 3 at Ascot to take class-2 CD chase last month from Night In Milan but only just hung on and is worse off at the weights. Needs holding up until the last possible moment.
ABCD If In Doubt
Experience in only two beginners’ chases, beaten favourite at Wetherby but toying with small field at Catterick under Tony McCoy. A lot to prove over fences in this much stronger company but was a Listed-level hurdler (2nd in last year’s Lanzarote).
ABCD Night In Milan
Twice a winner at Doncaster, including the Grimthorpe last March on a sound surface. He’s 10lb higher now but returned to form when just failing to catch Grandads Horse on this course and is now 4lb better off for a head.
ABC Easter Day
Listed hurdler and two out of two over fences at the end of 2013 but has twice failed to last out 3m, perhaps finding the ground too fast in a big Aintree hurdle that year, then beaten favourite, third of four on first run for 12 months in December. Should improve on that, his reappearance race.
ABD Godsmejudge
Scottish Grand National winner (2013) and second (2014) but perhaps best performance was third in Grade-3 Sandown Gold Cup in April, getting only a pound from the winner, Hadrians Approach.
ABD Hadrians Approach
Third in 2013 RSA Chase at the Cheltenham festival, and fifth in the Sandown Gold Cup the following month. But won the same Sandown race last year, beating Godsmejudge (third) more than four lengths. Difference of 4lb now should be the equaliser.
AB Attaglance
Fourth PP Gold Cup (2013) and narrow runner-up to Present View in novice chase at Cheltenham festival in March. Not in same form raised to Graded races after but gets weight from Present View here.
AB Lost Legend
BETDAQ Silver Bowl winner at Kempton last Spring and runner-up in (Listed) Summer Plate at Market Rasen. Just one (winning) run back.
AB Present View
Beat Attaglance at the Cheltenham festival to make it three from four over fences. Just two runs back, prepping over hurdles before third, jumping really well, in PP Gold Cup back at Cheltenham in November.
AC Baileys Concerto
Cracking sequence of seven wins out of eight races last year, and showed he’s not done with, though 38lb higher, when the ‘moral’ at Aintree, third giving weight to the first two. But all his racing has been over shorter.
AD Cowards Close
Fine effort for a novice on reappearance run when third at Cheltenham in December, appreciating good ground.
A Fairy Rath
Big, strong stuffy sort who badly needed his first run back in November (after 11 months off) and stepped up well on that, returning to his old class-2 rating, bossing his field at Sandown earlier this month. Topham target.
BCD Medermit
A ‘nearly horse’ who’s not won a race since November 2011, but second in Ascot Grade 1, third in the Cheltenham Ryanair, fourth in the Aintree Bowl, Punchestown Gold Cup and Charlie Hall Chase (November).
BCD Royal Player
Only six, but convincing back-to-back wins over fences on goodish ground at Ludlow and Musselburgh. Still has a lot to learn.
BC Renard
Back-to-back wins at Chepstow just over a year ago and third on this course to Night In Milan in the Grimthorpe in March. Better off at the weights here but tends to use himself up and stay on, one paced.
TANGO CAN TAKE CATTERICK NOVICE
CATTERICK The second race at Catterick is my first selection of the day. This looks like it could be a tough race with almost all of the 8 runners having some sort of chance.
AP McCoy takes the mount on Runswick Days who is a very consistent sort however, I’m not fully convinced that he will get today’s trip. He was on course for a hat trick when appearing like he didn’t get home at Wetherby on Boxing Day. His only other try at three miles resulted in a 19 length defeat at Kelso.
Wakhan is still a maiden over fences but he is another that is rarely out of the frame. Sue Smith’s horses are running relatively well but this one may be vulnerable to a better handicapped horse.
That horse may just be Fromthetop who was only just pipped at the line last time out. That was his first run since September 2013 so he is sure to improve for his run on Boxing Day and despite a five pound rise, he should be good enough under a light weight.
The next race is just a three runner affair in a Novice Chase over two miles and three furlongs and it looks like it should be a very good opportunity for Tango De Juilley to add to his previous Chase win.
That win came back in November in his Chasing debut beating none other than the classy River Maigue by 11 lengths. Subsequently, he has finished second twice but on the ratings, he has a bit in hand over his two rivals this afternoon.
Yorkist should go close but his runs over fences have been good but I would have question the step up in trip. Calculated Risk has only had the one run over fences finishing 19 lengths behind Runswick Royal and will need to improve a considerable amount from that run to land a blow.
Tango De Juilley looks like the one and as such, he is today’s Nap.
AYR Heavy ground at the Scottish track are going to make things very tough indeed and strong staying types will be required no matter what trip.
This is exactly what Too Cool To Fool is despite having turned 12 a couple of weeks back. He has previously won over all kinds of distances between two miles and three miles and although he has to put a couple of poor runs behind him, they were in much better races.
In saying that, his last run was off a mark 18lbs higher than what he has to carry today. His stamina certainly won’t come into consideration and with Ryan Day taking a further 7lbs off, he is a tentative selection at 2.50.
The penultime race at 3.25 is another competitive race over three miles so this is sure to be a slog.
Chavoy, Sharney Sike and Arc Warrior all look to have decent chances with Sharney Sike having beaten Chavoy last time out and the pair are at the head of the weights.
But for falling at the last on Boxing Day, No Through Road looked the likely winner of a good Wetherby contest over today’s trip. Although he’s gone up 35lbs since the start of the season, there could be more improvement left in the Michael Scudamore trained gelding and he may take quite a bit of beating and looks to be the value bet of the day trading at 4.5 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS (strength 1 to 9 points; 10 a banker)
BET 4pts win FROMTHETOP (1.35 Catterick)
BET 8pts win (Nap) TANGO DE JUILLEY (2.10 Catterick)
BET 2pts win TOO COOL TO FOOL (2.50 Ayr)
BET 6pts win NO THROUGH ROAD (3.25 Ayr)
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