5-1 WINNER FOR MORE PROFIT: Daqman, who landed six winning bets on Monday, could manage only one from three races yesterday but such was the price of Gabrial The Duke (WON 5-1) that he finished the day in front. His two-day profit: 50.66 points.
CHECKING OUT CHELTENHAM: Daqman continues his search for big outsiders at the Cheltenham festival with one he thinks is a stayer so disguised that he’s been 44.0 on BETDAQ. And below the article you can check out all the ante-post bets so far.
12.0 BETDAQ OFFER IS ‘MASSIVE’: No jumps racing again today but watch out this afternoon for the result of an inspection at Doncaster to see if the NH sport can return tomorrow. Meanwhile, Daqman finds a ‘massive’ 12.0 offer on BETDAQ for a trade at Kempton. His nap is at Chelmsford City.
44.0 DOES CHELTENHAM CAUSE NO HARM
What do you want for a Cheltenham staying chase? Answer: A horse with a touch of class over hurdles. One that likes the course. That’s been saved up for the festival. Jumps well and is a hold-up horse with stamina.
Oh, and has been twice as big a price on BETDAQ as with the bookmakers (though that applies to a lot of the probables in the four fabulous days, starting March 10).
I’ve got one good enough to win The Ladbroke, a big December hurdle at Ascot, after running third in the Racing Post Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Since then, he’s had two more runs at Cheltenham, outpaced in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle but very unlucky in the Kim Muir Chase at the festival last March when he would have won but for clipping the top of the last fence, after a long, raking run from way back.
There’s another clue there. His jockey that day was Nina Carberry, and he showed that he goes well for an amateur rider.
Yes, the race in question is the four-miler, the National Hunt Chase, on the opening day at the festival. And the horse is Cause Of Causes.
Trained by Gordon Elliott, Cause Of Causes got behind in the Drinmore Chase (2m 4f) on his reappearance run, then ran in the Galmoy over hurdles. These were both Graded races.
Cause Of Causes, though seemingly out of form, is only 16-1 with one of the big firms for the NH Chase but was 44.0 on BETDAQ last night. Worth a pound, I thought.
In fact, I’ll need a tad more than one point to win 50. So my ante-post bets for the festival now look like this (offer taken x points bet):
15.5 x 3.5 VIBRATO VALTAT (win 50, Arkle Chase, Tuesday). Now 10-1 (bookies) and 14.0 (Betdaq)
44.0 x 1.1 CAUSE OF CAUSES (win 50, NH Chase, Tuesday). Now 16-1 and 44.0
15.0 x 3.5 BRIAR HILL (win 50, World Hurdle, Thursday). Now 16-1 and 41.0
39.0 x 2.6 PAIN AU CHOCOLAT (win 100, Triumph Hurdle, Friday). Now 16-1 and 18.0
07.8 x 5.8 BRISTOL DE MAI (win 40, Triumph Hurdle, Friday). Now 12-1 and 19.0
Vibrato Valtat will prep for Paul Nicholls in the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase at Warwick on Saturday, a race won by Long Run before his RSA third and subsequent Gold the following season.
Last year’s Kingmaker winner, Balder Succes, skipped Cheltenham but went on to win the Maghull at Aintree, so the race is not badly named.
Nicholls will be watching Newbury, where Sire De Grugy returns in an attempt to become a serious Champion Chase rival to Ditcheat’s Dodging Bullets and the already-back-from-injury Sprinter Sacre.
EXPECT CHELMSFORD MONEY FOR PLAISIR
CHELMSFORD CITY Lady Cecil has her first runner at Chelmsford, her only starter this week, Giovanni Di Bicci (2.00), a 13.5 offer on BETDAQ early mouse.
May be worth a pound, significantly up in trip, and tongue-tied first time, as if the yard wants their work on him to reach fruition first time out. The most experienced horse in the race (gelding actually), he is by Medicean, whose progeny often mature late.
Also up in trip, Plaisir (3.05), for a trainer who is 1-1 at Chelmsford so far, has been placed three times on Polytrack and should be able to deal with this little lot. At 2.88 as I write, could go odds on by the time of the race.
Three-year-old conditions races and handicaps (3.40) are the bane of a punter’s life in the Spring, the professionals’ rule being never to bet in them until Royal Ascot. And today’s is a sprint.. on a new track!
Wentworth Falls goes for a hat-trick, an improved animal in blinkers, but up in class here. The John Gosden stable is also seeking a treble, and the guvnor’s wife is the owner of Kaufmann.
Gosden has already accounted for Anonymous John with his first Chelmsford runner last month, but Kaufmann drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning, over my betting weir to 42.0.
Squats was fourth, hampered, in the Cornwallis (Group 3) at Newmarket in October but he didn’t improve any on previous form with the fifth, Profitable.
The one I like is Merdon Castle, who has already won on an AW track, Kempton, and returned their recently to make a good start to his year. The drop back to the minimum should suit.
Thought good enough to tackle the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot, running better than the finishing positions suggest.
With six of nine runners in the first four in the last fortnight – three winners – Michael Bell could score with Born To Reign (4.10), getting a stone from all bar two opponents, five out of six of them old plodders aged seven or eight.
Alan King’s strike-rate in the last fortnight is a fabulous 50% and those shying off Precision Five (4.40) because she’s up in trip may regret it.
Five will get you 10 (no, 12 actually on BETDAQ) – if her recent finishing flourishes are anything to go by – that she will enjoy the trip.
PLOT-HORSE RONNIE FOR A KEMPTON TRADE
KEMPTON I find Kempton altogether more difficult, lower class barring the mile handicap late on in the afternoon (4.45).
Presumido holds a verdict over the recent CD winner Gracious George and Rizal Park could get back on song, after a troubled run at Chelmsford, while there may be a lot more to come from New Year’s Night (why claimed off, though?).
But my man in the long grass says that Rocket Ronnie has been working with winners at the Ed McMahon yard, which is another scoring at a strike-rate of 50% this year, finishing January with two out of three. Massive at 12.0 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS (1 to 9 shows the strength of the selection; 10 is a banker)
BET 2pts win GIOVANNI DI BICCI (2.00 Chelmsford City)
BET 8pts win (nap) PLAISIR (3.05 Chelmsford City)
BET 4pts win MERDON CASTLE and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) SQUATS (3.40 Chelmsford City)
BET 3pts win BORN TO REIGN (4.10 Chelmsford City)
BET 5pts win PRECISION FIVE (4.40 Chelmsford City)
BET 2pts win and place ROCKET RONNIE (4.45 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble PLAISIR (3.05 Chelmsford City), PRECISION FIVE (4.40 Chelmsford City) and ROCKET RONNIE (4.45 Kempton)
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