FAREWELL TO A TRUE STAR: Daqman takes a punters’-eye view of the loss of the chaser Kauto Star, who brought pleasure to millions in his great King George and Gold Cup years.
‘CRAZY’ 10.5 KEMPTON BET: He finds offers of 10.5 (‘a little crazy’) at Kempton tonight and 9.6 this afternoon worth taking on BETDAQ, as he surveys five English meetings today.
THIRSK NAP: His best bet of the day runs in the 4.30 at Thirsk.
EVEN KAUTO BECAME A FORGOTTEN HORSE
I love champions; don’t get me wrong. But my natural instinct is as a pro punter, looking for flaws in the favourite.
So, much as I enjoy the spectacle, the advent of a Kauto Star (or a Denman, or a Frankel, or maybe a Golden Horn) is less enjoyable for me, once the price has become prohibitive.
So far this season, Gleneagles and Golden Horn have been reasonably backable. Jack Hobbs, too (10-11 his Irish Derby win looks like a mortgage job in hindsight and I made him a gold banker on the day, so I’m not after-timing here).
But most backers will be well turned off Saturday’s Eclipse with Golden Horn being offered up to 4-1 on, 1-3 generally. If Ascot can attract an international field for the royal meeting, why can’t Sandown eclipse them for their race?
In fact, Kauto Star wasn’t too bad, even in his heyday paying 7-4 and 5-4 a Gold Cup, 10-11, 4-6 and 8-13 (twice) in his King Georges.
I’d love to get my gold banker teeth into those, if I could have them round again!
But it’s when Joe Public has forgotten, or can’t believe their stature, that you get the juicy odds about the champions: in his final heroic season, Kauto Star’s SPs were 5-1, 10-11, 6-1, 3-1 and 3-1.
And it’s unbelievable now that Treve started 9-2 and 11-1 for her Arc de Triomphe triumphs.
Even yesterday, they went odds against in the early-mouse BETDAQ orange about the Abbaye winner, Move In Time (WON 4-9 after three non-runners), racing six grades lower at Hamilton.
Farewell Kauto Star, long to be a regular Alice Treedown double-page spread as a great racing memory, or a Brough-and-ready eulogy, repeated every few years.
You’ll pardon me, sir, if I look to the odds; if I try to spot your ilk when you are a good price early on, or when overlooked when many like you would have been signed off long before. To think I campaigned for your retirement: what I would have missed!
GREEB CAN BREAK HIS DUCK FOR THE SEASON
Betting is never easy. Otherwise we would today be piling into a two-year-old champion we never see on a racecourse!
The stallion Zoffany got three two-year-old winners at Royal Ascot with his first crop (thoroughly enjoying himself in the process, no doubt. And he’s only seven!)
But it would be a wild tipster who picked his daughter, Saxon Gold (2.00), at 80.0 BETDAQ offers as I write, after her poor start to the campaign and with the trainer 0-20 with two-year-olds in five seasons.
But this is the time of year that the shrewd punter starts looking down the field when he watches the end-game of a juvenile race, trying to spot potential for the nurseries (juvenile handicaps).
The one I’d keep an eye on today would be Popsies Joy. They don’t come cannier than any Yorkshire Easterby (Tim’s had 76 two-year-old wins in five seasons).
Today’s run will set her up for a rating, and a rating means she can go handicapping (York in August? You read it here first).
4.30 Thirsk I should think it’s also ‘another day’ for Tim’s four-year-old Kenny The Captain, who wants soft ground. Ambitious Icarus and It Must Be Faith also need an easy surface.
Vallarta has not been able to win at this class-3 level but Greeb went close, narrowly beaten by Lexington Abbey on the last day, when that one had a fitness edge.
Rex Imperator is 21lb below his last winning mark and could bounce back any time, while Fendale (9.6 offers) has raced in the Pattern for nearly a year now (Gimcrack; Cornwallis) and still ‘could be anything’, switched to Michael Dods and first time in a handicap.
BETDAQ 10.5 NYANZA ‘LOOKS A LITTLE CRAZY’
7.45 Kempton War Front and Dark Angel are other sires of juveniles doing really well, so Sparring Queen and Winter Rose (trainer does good in nurseries) may be two more fillies to take out of today’s racing (7.15 maiden).
But a late-developer might not get his handicap chance until he’s three. Step forward Arthenus from the James Fanshawe stable in fantastic form: 14 consecutive runners all in the first five.
Arthenus has done enough in his maidens, and Fanshawe is in such each-way form that win and place at 7.8 looks tempting on BETDAQ early mouse.
8.15 Kempton Alan King’s Nyanza had back-to-back success on Kempton Polytrack in the Spring of last year before embarking on a hurdles career which saw the 64-rated class-6 Flat filly improve dramatically to become a 132 Listed hurdles winner around the turn of the year.
With Tom Marquand’s claim dropping her to bottomweight, the morning 10.5 offers on BETDAQ look a little crazy. You cannot be serious!
8.45 Kempton Majeed is another returning to the scene of success. He ran away with a race at this level over the CD in May and should still take care of Double Discount and The Gay Cavalier, despite the 7lb rise. They were well behind that day, and hold-up horse Majeed should benefit from Noble Gift’s pace.
Noble Gift is also returning to Kempton, where he made all in better class in March and has Callum Shepherd claiming 7lb. Saver in case he gets all his own way.
DAQMAN’S BETS (1 to 9 for strength)
BET 9pts win (nap) GREEB and 1pt win and place FENDALE (4.30 Thirsk)
BET 3pts win and place ARTHENUS (7.45 Kempton)
BET 3pts win and place NYANZA (8.15 Kempton)
BET 8pts win MAJEED and 1.25pts win (stakes saver) NOBLE GIFT (8.45 Kempton)
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