TWO OUT OF THREE TOP BETS UP: Two of Daqman’s three main bets won yesterday, seven points on Trevisani (WON 11-10), and eight on Baron Bolt (WON 2-1) but his 10-point banker let the side down.
SPOTLIGHT ON TWO-YEAR-OLDS: Today Daqman sets the scene to check out 20 two-year-old races on Friday and Saturday, airing his views on what (and what not) to look out for. He opens with his horses to follow.
BANKER BET AT TIPPERARY: Best of the racing today is the evening meeting in Ireland, where Daqman argues for a sprinter to make all the running in the soft-heavy conditions but his banker is a Group performer dropped in grade.
50% STRIKE RATE FOR JUVENILES LIST
Five winners out of 10. That’s a 50% strike rate for Daqman’s Two-Year-Olds To Follow, given here with their results since being added to the list and their target races.
-3 BOYNTON several entries before Dewhurst Stakes, Newmarket, October 8
-1 CARAVAGGIO several entries before Dewhurst Stakes, Newmarket, October 8, including favoured Middle Park Stakes, Newmarket, September 24
-– CAPRI multiple entries before Dewhurst Stakes, Newmarket, October 8
11 CHURCHILL multiple entries before Dewhurst Stakes, Newmarket, October 8
-– ENDLESS CHARM Rockfel Stakes, Newmarket, September 23; Cheveley Park Stakes, Newmarket, September 24
-3 FAIR EVA multiple entries Cheveley Park Stakes, Newmarket, September 24
-– GULLIVER Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy on October 1.
11 LADY AURELIA Cheveley Park Stakes, Newmarket, September 24
–2 ROLY POLY multiple entries to Cheveley Park Stakes, Newmarket, September 24
–0 TIS MARVELLOUS Middle Park Stakes, Newmarket, September 24
–4 VELVETEEN multiple entries to Cheveley Park Stakes, Newmarket, September 24
TRY TO REMEMBER THEY ARE ONLY BABIES
Breeding and Press hype tempt you. But you are best advised at this time of year to stick to two-year-olds who have raced and, in nurseries – handicaps for juveniles – that have raced two to four times.
In fact, the result of my research of two-year-old races from autumns past suggest that fewer than one in six races are won by newcomers and only about one in nine when there are four or more in a race with experience. In fact, two daring rules could be profitable:
OPPOSE an unraced hyped horse by betting on your pick of the rest of the field with form on your side, and it doesn’t always have to be brilliant form; it’s the experience that counts.
OPPOSE a once-raced winner or big-field placed horse (below Pattern level only) where there are animals with experience to take him on.
One that does well first time out but was not put under duress usually learns from the experience but some are frightened by it or their seeming potential is exposed as mere hope and guesswork later on.
Try to establish whether the youngster reacted badly to the lung-bursting experience of racing (remember the last time you had a ‘stitch’) or responded kindly to the pressure after seemingly cruising on the debut.
I personally have had two runners of my own which fooled the eye: a filly who seemed to enjoy her first run but had to be washed down before her next race, so covered in sweat was she. We renamed her Persil.
The other one ran so well that the jockey (one of the Hills boys) said to my trainer as he unsaddled: ‘Next time.’
What happened next time? She again looked impressive in cruise control but this time was asked to join battle with the leaders. She hung to one side, as if to say: ‘Heh; you didn’t tell me about this!’
One of the most recent flops by one second time out after a promising debut was Fields Of Fortune, second on debut at Sandown in July but again got going too late at Newbury when odds on this week.
NURSERIES: Now comes an even bigger headache. Is Fields Of Fortune, and others like him, being prepared for a nice position in a two-year-old handicap, in which case it needs one more run to qualify for a mark?
Or is it slow at learning the trade, or the trainer slow at understanding what work he needs? Let’s take a special look at the weekend’s 20 two-year-old races on Friday and Saturday, bet according to our new rules and try to assess what we’ve seen.
There are 20 races for juveniles all told: Newmarket 5, Goodwood 4; two each at Hamilton, Ffos Las, Redcar and Thirsk and one each at Beverley and Windsor.
Such is the demand to give these babies an outing that there are 55 entered in the two at Redcar and 47 for just the one at Windsor. Remember they are only babies and don’t get out of your pram if you lose.
Stick to quality stables. Stats for the winning trainers in the decade in those 20 races show that the winners came from:
Team Hannon 6, Mark Johnston 5, Brian Meehan 5, Richard Fahey 4, John Gosden 4, Saeed Bin Suroor 4, Charlie Appleby 3, Henry Candy 3, Roger Varian 3, David Brown 2, Tim Easterby 2, David Elsworth 2, William Muir 2, Sir Mark Prescott 2.
WHY I’M WORRIED ABOUT WHITMAN..
4.00 Musselburgh Richard Fahey won this last year with one he placed low in the handicap and he can do the trick again with Invermere, who should find this easier than when third at a similar level on the July Course.
Ginger Jack is now racing off his highest mark since 2010, though he should again beat Jacbequick. It’s Ellal’s highest ever. And Argaki is still carrying the burden of penalties for four wins in 2015.
That’s ok when they are young horses on the up, but we are talking here about aged six, seven and nine. Mont Ras is also nine.
Gworn, too, at six, is unlikely to find much improvement and needs some rain. Avenue Of Stars also enjoyed an easy surface and shorter trip when winning in the Spring.
The worry is Whitman, taking a drop in class, and only just headed in a similar contest at Ayr in June. Likely to ‘do a Johnston’ and take the all on but giving 10lb to Invermere.
IT’S NOW OR NEVER TO LAND A BANKER
5.10 Tipperary Local trainer Andrew Slattery has stepped up his strike rate to a handy 21% this season but 25% with two-year-olds.
Legitimus looks vulnerable against colts and Slattery’s Sir Dreamalot may have the edge on Utah, in receipt of more than a stone, with the boot now on the other foot after just failing to concede 19lb to the winner at Gowran 15 days back.
5.40 Tipperary (Fairy Bridge Stakes) Slattery saddles his four-time winner Creggs Pipes and she deserves a crack at the Pattern but is a handicapper against a Group performer here in Now Or Never.
Third to Jet Setting in the Curragh 1,000 Guineas, Now Or Never was not disgraced, fourth, in the Coronation Stakes behind such stars as Qemah and Nemoralia, both Group winners since. Creggs Pipes can make a price for us.
6.40 Tipperary (Abergwaun Stakes) Monsieur Joe, who made all on the soft in this race last year, faces stronger competition, if judged only by the third horse that day, Dikta Del Mar, who is offered as if no chance this afternoon.
But Monsieur Joe has been in cracking from this year (latest form figures 12412), despite his nine years.
Spirit Quartz has had more experience in the Pattern but has won only a Listed (like today’s) in 19 races since a Group 2 back in the day – more than three years ago, in fact – when he won the prestigious Prix Du Gros Chenes at Chantilly.
Gordon Lord Byron’s last Group-2 win was only 18 days ago but his last CD win at Tipperary was in May, 2012, and he’s raced only once (loser) over the minimum in 49 starts before and after.
Gracious John won on heavy at Maisons as a juvenile and is down two grades from his Sapphire Stakes third to Mecca’s Angel at The Currtagh last month. He’s taken to setting the pace, and trip and conditions are ideal.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9; banker 10)
BET 6pts win INVERMERE and 3pts win WHITMAN (4.00 Musselburgh)
BET 1pt win and place on each POWERLESS and SNOOKERED (4.10 Leicester)
BET 5pts win THRILLED (4.45 Leicester)
BET 5pts win SIR DREAMALOT (5.10 Tipperary)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) NOW OR NEVER (5.40 Tipperary)
BET 6pts win GRACIOUS JOHN (6.40 Tipperary)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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