DONN McCLEAN: It is not easy to find an angle into the feature race of the day, the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury. Home Of The Brave is the most likely winner by a fair way, but he is priced up accordingly. Convey is perhaps a little shorter than he should be, but it is difficult to argue that many of the others are over-priced as a consequence and, with seven runners, there is no each-way angle.
Perhaps the 8.2 that is available about Markaz is big enough, but he was a little disappointing in the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood last time, and it may be that he is a better horse on easier ground. We might get him in the autumn when the ground eases again.
The Great St Wilfrid Stakes at Ripon has a much more appealing look to it from a betting perspective. Stable companions Orion’s Bow and Kimberella dominate the market, and that is understandable.
Orion’s Bow is a really progressive sprinter of Dandy Nicholls’ who beat everything except the potentially Group class Dancing Star in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood last time. He is up another 3lb for that, however, which means that he is now racing off a mark of 106, which is a fairly incredible 37lb higher than that mark off which he raced when he started his winning run at Newcastle less than three months ago.f
Kimberella is also in tremendous form, he was impressive in winning the Sky Bet Dash at York on his penultimate run, and you can forgive him his poor run in that Stewards’ Cup as he was drawn high and raced towards the unfavoured stands side. However, he had the run of the race at York, he raced just behind the pace towards the favoured far side. Also, he is six, he has raced 53 times now, and he races here off a career-high mark of 105, 2lb higher than his Stewards’ Cup mark and 17lb higher than the mark off which he started this season. Odds of arounf 9.0 about him are just about fair.
It may pay to oppose the top two with Related. Paul Midgley’s horse has two lengths to find with Kimberella on their running in that Sky Bet Dash, and he meets him on the same terms. However, he tried to make all – as is his wont – at York at a track at which it is difficult to do that. Also, he ran a cracker subsequently to get to within a neck of Hoof It in the Stewards’ Cup consolation race at Goodwood, whereas Kimberella disappointed in the Stewards’ Cup itself, for all that there were excuses.
Related raced off a mark of 92 at Goodwood and, although he is 3lb higher today, his mark of 95 is still 2lb lower than the mark off which he began this season.
More than that, however, prominent racers generally do well on the sprint track at Ripon and in this race, and Related is well-drawn in stall 18 of 20. Martin Lane should be able to join the front rank and bag the stands rail from early. If he does, there is a chance that he could last all the way to the winning line.
Paul Midgley’s horses are in good form and, while Related gets seven furlongs, he is probably at his best over six and ridden aggressively.
There are lots of dangers. Intisaab did really well to split Kimberella and Related at York last time, given that he was drawn high and had to move over towards the far side, and he is only 1lb higher today. He is a big player, he is a course winner, but he is a hold-up horse and that is not an advantage in this race.
Nuno Tristan is another hold-up horse who could go well. Richard Fahey’s horse did not have much luck in-running in that Stewards’ Cup consolation race last time, when he kept on well to finish third, just a length behind the winner and just three parts of a length behind Related. Perfect Pasture won a good race at The Curragh last time and could go well off top weight and a 10lb higher mark, while Piper’s Note loves it here and shaped encouragingly at Doncaster last time.
However, it may be that they will all have to go to keep up with Related, and the 12.0 may be worth taking in a good each-way race.
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