Kansas City Chiefs (2-3, 3-2 ATS) @ San Diego Chargers (5-1, 5-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: San Diego -4 (45)
Significant Injuries
Kansas City: RB Cyrus Gray (questionable– hand), CB Sean Smith (questionable– groin), S Eric Berry (out– ankle), CB Chris Owens (out– knee), WR Donnie Avery (out– groin)
San Diego: CB Brandon Flowers (questionable– groin), LB Dwight Freeney (questionable– knee), CB Jason Verrett (questionable– shoulder), LB Jeremiah Attaochu (doubtful– hamstring), RB Donald Brown (out– concussion), RB Ryan Mathews (out– knee), LB Manti Te’o (out– foot)
Recent Trends
Kansas City is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games
San Diego is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games
San Diego is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a win
San Diego is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall
The OVER is 4-1 in Kansas City’s last 5 games vs. AFC West opponents
The UNDER is 15-7-1 in Kansas City’s last 23 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 13-4 in San Diego’s last 17 games vs. AFC opponents
The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Kansas City
1. The Chiefs are playing well, having won two straight games before narrowly losing on the road in San Francisco in Week 5. They had a bye last week, so they should be rested and ready for a Chargers team that is coming off its worst performance of the season.
2. San Diego has a one-dimensional offense that will be even more reliant on the passing game than usual with running backs Ryan Mathews and Donald Brown still sidelined by injuries. That could be bad news against a Kansas City defense that is excellent against the pass, surrendering just 214 yards per game through the air.
3. The Kansas City offense does one thing really well: they can run the football. The Chiefs rank 4th in rushing offense and the Chargers proved vulnerable against the run when they nearly lost in Oakland last week. The Bolts can expect a heavy dose of Jamaal Charles on Sunday, and if Charles has a big game Philip Rivers will likely spend more time on the sidelines than he is accustomed to. Look for the Chiefs to pound the ball, control the clock, and try to steal a win in the 2nd half.
Three reasons to back San Diego
1. The Chargers just might be the NFL’s best team; they’ve won 5 straight games, they’ve covered in 5 of their 6 games this year, and their +73 point differential leads the league. They’ve won their three home games this season by 59 combined points, so bettors shouldn’t be the least bit concerned by the 4-point number in this matchup.
2. San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers is having the best season of his career and is considered by most the favorite for the MVP award. This week he’ll be facing a Kansas City defense that allows over 340 yards per game and is missing its best player in the secondary, as safety Eric Berry is sidelined by an ankle injury. Another monster day from Rivers is expected.
3. There’s been plenty of talk about the San Diego offense, but the defense is the primary reason why NFL observers are viewing the Chargers as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Bolts rank 3rd in total defense and 2nd in points allowed, surrendering just 15.2 points per game. They should dominate a Kansas City offense that averages fewer than 200 pass yards per game and has produced 17 points or fewer 3 times in 5 games this season.
Prediction
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