Arizona Cardinals (4-1, 3-2 ATS) @ Oakland Raiders (0-5, 3-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Arizona -3.5 (44.5)
Significant Injuries
Arizona: TE John Carlson (questionable– knee), LB Glenn Carson (questionable– ankle), DT Frostee Rucker (questionable– calf), DT Alamda Ta’amu (questionable– illness), DE Calais Campbell (out– knee), TE Troy Niklas (out– ankle)
Oakland: G Khalif Barnes (questionable– quadricep), RB Marcel Reece (questionable– quadricep), DE Justin Tuck (questionable– knee), WR Vincent Brown (out– hamstring), CB Keith McGill (out– groin)
Recent Trends
Arizona is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
Oakland is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Oakland is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games
Oakland is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss
The UNDER is 9-4 in Arizona’s last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 8-3 in Oakland’s last 11 games following a loss
The OVER is 5-1-1 in Oakland’s last 7 home games
Three reasons to back Arizona
1. This is obvious mismatch: the Cardinals lead the NFC West with a 4-1 record, while the Raiders are one of only two remaining winless teams. Arizona’s reputation as a losing team and the fact that this game is in Oakland are the only things keeping this line where it is, and considering that the Raiders have covered just once in their last 7 home games, bettors should lay the points without fear or hesitation.
2. The Cardinals have an excellent defense that ranks 10th in points allowed and 3rd against the run, and this week they get the hapless Raiders, who rank 31st in total offense, rushing offense, and points scored (only Jacksonville is worse in all categories). Did I mention that Oakland starts a rookie quarterback? This could get ugly…
3. The Raiders have a terrible defense that surrenders nearly 27 points per game and allows more rushing yards per game (149.8) than all but one team leaguewide. They have little chance of success against an Arizona offense that finally has their starting quarterback healthy and is loaded with skill-position talent.
Three reasons to back Oakland
1. The trick to sports gambling is knowing when things are about to happen. It’s true, Oakland has yet to win a game this year, but a close examination reveals a team that’s ready to break through. Last week, in their first game under new head coach Tony Sparano, the Raiders played their best game of the season and nearly beat a San Diego team that many consider the league’s best. There’s a new vibe in Oakland now that ex-coach Dennis Allen is no longer around, and that “vibe” may manifest itself in the form of a win this Sunday.
2. The Cardinals have been horrific offensively, ranking 29th in total offense and 30th in rushing. They live and die with the passing game, and it just so happens that Oakland has a capable, veteran secondary. The Raiders defend the pass very well, ranking in the top-10 is pass yards allowed, so Arizona may have to rely on their nonexistent rushing attack to move the ball. The result will probably be a close, low-scoring game, which is perfect for someone betting on a 3.5-point home ‘dog.
3. Out in Las Vegas the Cardinals have been a tremendously popular public bet this week, with nearly 80% of the wagered money coming in on the visitors. Sharp bettors know that this is a huge red flag– following the public may be a good idea when you’re evacuating a building, but it’s a recipe for disaster in sports betting. Trust me: put your money down on Oakland and then watch in amusement as people trip all over themselves trying to figure out why the Cardinals couldn’t beat the lowly Raiders.
Prediction
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