New York Giants (3-3, 3-3 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-1, 4-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Dallas -7 (47.5)
Significant Injuries
New York: LB Spencer Paysinger (questionable– hamstring), CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (questionable– back), RB Rashad Jennings (out– knee)
Dallas: DE Jack Crawford (doubtful– calf), LB Bruce Carter (out– thigh), OT Doug Free (out– foot)
Recent Trends
New York is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss
New York is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. NFC opponents
Dallas is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games
The visiting team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 10-2 in New York’s last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 4-1 in Dallas’ last 5 games vs. NFC East opponents
The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back New York
1. This is the ultimate “buy low, sell high” spot– the Cowboys are riding a wave of public adulation after a road win in Seattle improved their record to 5-1, while the Giants are viewed as fundamentally flawed and unreliable after being shut out by the Eagles last week. The result is an inflated number– 7 points is just way too many in a game involving these evenly-matched division rivals.
2. It’s important to avoid getting too caught up in the NFL’s week-to-week roller coaster of emotion, especially when you’re trying to determine the relative value of teams. While many seem to be allowing last week’s lopsided defeat define how they view the Giants, it’s important to remember that prior to last week’s game the G-Men were coming off three straight double-digit victories in which their offense produced 105 combined points. Don’t allow your perception to become distorted by the immediate past; the Giants are a quality team that is certainly capable of beating Dallas outright on Sunday.
3. The Cowboys have a leaky defense that has surrendered 23 points or more three times this season and always has trouble slowing down the Giants, as Eli Manning and Co. have scored 81 combined points in the last three meetings between these two teams. Manning demonstrated mastery of new coordinator Ben McAdoo’s offense in weeks 3-5, so the Dallas defense will certainly have its hand full on Sunday.
Three reasons to back Dallas
1. Are the Cowboys the NFL’s best team? They certainly looked like it last week, when they went up to Seattle and improved their record to 5-1 with a win over the defending Super Bowl champs. The Giants, meanwhile, were beaten 27-0 by Philadelphia in a game that was every bit as ugly as it sounds. These teams may be division rivals, but this game is a clear mismatch.
2. The New York offense has been horrible this season, ranking 20th or worse in total offense, passing offense, and points scored. Last week they were shut out by the mediocre Philadelphia defense, so they’ll likely have tremendous difficulty against a Cowboys defense that ranks 9th in points allowed.
3. The Cowboys have one of the NFL’s best offenses, a unit that ranks 4th in both total yards and points scored and 1st in rushing. They’ve had success against some of the NFL’s toughest defenses this season– Seattle, San Francisco, Houston, etc.– so they should have little trouble lighting up the scoreboard against New York’s 22nd-ranked defense. They’ve scored 26 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games and they’re a safe bet to exceed that total on Sunday.
Prediction
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