Houston Texans (3-3, 4-2 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3, 2-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Pittsburgh -3 (44.5)
Significant Injuries
Houston: LB Jadeveon Clowney (questionable– knee), LB Mike Mohamed (questionable– calf), CB Darryl Morris (out– ankle)
Pittsburgh: LB Ryan Shazier (questionable– knee), S Shamarko Thomas (out– hamstring), DT Steve McLendon (out– shoulder), CB Ike Taylor (out– forearm)
Recent Trends
Houston is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall
Houston is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games vs. AFC opponents
Houston is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Monday night games
Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game
The UNDER is 5-1 in Houston’s last 6 games following a loss
The OVER is 4-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 5 games following a loss
The OVER is 5-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 6 home games
The UNDER is 5-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 6 Monday night games
Three reasons to back Houston
1. The Texans are a good team, a better team than their 3-3 record indicates. Just look at their last two losses: they came against teams who are tied for the NFL’s best record (Dallas and Indianapolis), they came by a combined 8 points, and one of them (Dallas) came in overtime. Houston could easily be 4-2 or 5-1 right now.
2. The Steelers have regressed over the course of the season and now look like the worst team in their division. In their last three games they lost to Tampa, providing the Bucs with their only win of the season, squeaked by a terrible Jacksonville team, and were beaten 31-10 by the Browns, a team that Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was 18-1 against until the latest setback. They’re allowing more points (23.2) than they are scoring (20.7), a sure sign of a bad team.
3. Houston has an excellent defense that ranks 6th in points allowed and could be getting freakish outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney back for the first time since his Week 1 knee injury. They should be able to smother a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 24th in points scored and has only produced 20 combined offensive points in their last two games.
Three reasons to back Pittsburgh
1. The Steelers are a veteran team whose professional pride has been tested after last week’s blowout loss to a Cleveland team that they usually dominate. Fortunately, they have a home game against the Texans, a team that lost 14 games a year ago and has yet to beat a quality team this season. Expect the Steelers to bounce back with an emphatic win in front of their home fans. Remember, this team has a history of responding to bad losses with good performances; they’re 4-0 ATS in their last four games after surrendering more than 30 points in their previous game.
2. The Pittsburgh offense has been nearly impossible for opposing defenses to stop this season, as they currently rank 4th in total offense, 4th in rush yards per game, and 8th in pass yards per game. They’ll have little trouble moving the ball against a Houston defense that has surrendered more yards than all but three teams leaguewide.
3. Houston is terrible offensively, primarily because they’re so one dimensional– they just don’t have much of a passing game. Journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick is their starting quarterback and he’s more suited for a backup role at this point in his career, a fact that’s becoming more and more obvious every time he takes the field. The Texans rank 28th in passing offense, meaning a Pittsburgh defense that ranks in the top-half of the league in both passing defense and rushing defense will be able to focus on shutting down Arian Foster and the Houston running game. It’s going to be tough for the Texans to move the ball.
Prediction
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