New England Patriots (11-3, 9-5 ATS) @ New York Jets (3-11, 4-9-1 ATS)

*ATS= against the spread

BETDAQ Line: New England -10.5 (46.5)

Significant Injuries

New England: CB Kyle Arrington (questionable– hamstring), RB LeGarrette Blount (questionable– shoulder), G Dan Connolly (questionable– knee), WR Julian Edelman (questionable– thigh), OT Cameron Fleming (questionable– ankle), LB Dont’a Hightower (questionable– shoulder), DE Chandler Jones (questionable– hip), WR Brandon LaFell (questionable– shoulder), DE Rob Ninkovich (questionable– heel), RB Shane Vereen (questionable– ankle), LB Chris White (questionable– ankle)

New York: S Jaiquawn Jarrett (questionable– shoulder), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (questionable– toe), S Rontez Miles (out– shin)

Recent Trends

New England is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games in New York

New England is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win

New England is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall

New England is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record

New York is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams

New York is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games

New York is 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a win

The OVER is 22-7 in New England’s last 29 games vs. AFC East opponents

The UNDER is 5-1 in New York’s last 6 games overall

The OVER is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between these 2 teams

Three reasons to back New England

1. The Patriots are 11-3 and are generally considered the best team in the AFC. They’re led by a Hall of Fame coach and Hall of Fame quarterback, and they’ve won 9 of their past 10 games. The Jets are 3-11, they have a coach who is going to be fired in two games and a quarterback who is, essentially, a walking turnover. Plus, the Pats are always a good bet when they visit the Big Apple, covering 12 times in their last 15 opportunities.

2. The New England offense leads the NFL in points scored, averaging 31.6 per game. They’re led, of course, by the precision passing of Tom Brady, who is having one of the best seasons of his illustrious career. This week Brady will face a Jets defense that has struggled mightily in the secondary this season, ranking 20th against the pass. Advantage New England, obviously.

3. The Patriots are better defensively than they’ve been in several years, which is probably why they seem to have a more “Super Bowl-ready” team this year than they’ve had in awhile. They rank 8th in points allowed and they’re especially good against the run, surrendering just 103 rushing yards per game. That should serve them well against the run-first New York offense– actually, make that the “run-only” New York offense: the Jets rank last in the league in pass yards per game.

Three reasons to back New York

1. These teams play twice a year. It sure seems like it’s always competitive, and, indeed, four of the last 5 games between these bitter rivals have been decided by 3 points or fewer. The Jets are 4-1 against the spread in those games, which makes the 10.5-point number here downright puzzling. What more to people need to see? A few weeks ago the Jets traveled up to Foxborough, they were 9.5-point ‘dogs, and, whaddya know, they lost by just 2. Don’t ignore the obvious: when these teams play, you can expect close, hard-fought games. This week will be no different.

2. The Jets have a physical, punishing offensive line that paves the way for the AFC’s best rushing attack. When these teams met in Week 7 the New York o-line absolutely mauled the New England defensive front and the Jets totaled 218 rushing yards, which is the most allowed by the Patriots this season. Thing is, this dynamic– the New York o-line/rushing attack vs. the New England front seven– remains unchanged since the last meeting. The Jets will be able to push the Pats around and run it right down their throats once again, which will make it extremely difficult for New England to cover the double-digit number.

3. Rex Ryan can coach defense, there’s no doubt about that, and the Jets are very good on that side of the ball once again. They rank 6th in total defense and 4th against the run, and the last time these teams met they held Tom Brady to just 260 passing yards, well below his season average. Ryan knows how to attack the New England offense and he’s got the players to put his plan into action, so they should give the Pats a good fight, just like they always do.


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