BYRON NELSON: The PGA Tour heads to Texas this week for an event that has been a fixture on the schedule since the 1940s and counts among its champions names like Snead, Hogan, Nicklaus, Watson, Mickelson, Woods, and, of course, Lord Byron himself.
Born in 1912 in Waxahachie, Texas, about 65 miles south of this week’s venue, Byron Nelson is a player who probably doesn’t get enough mention in the “greats of all time” conversation due in large part to the fact that he retired from full-time pro golf to become a rancher at the age of 34. Just a year earlier he had set a record that will likely never be broken as long as the PGA Tour exists, winning 11 consecutive tournaments and 18 in total that season. This tournament became known as The Byron Nelson in 1968, and up until his death in 2006 Nelson was a consistent presence at the event, which became the most significant pro tournament in Texas and arguably remains so today.
For the fifth consecutive year the venue will be the Tom Weiskopf-designed TPC Craig Ranch in the Dallas suburb of McKinney. Craig Ranch is a flat, sprawling layout with wide fairways and large green complexes. Like most Texas courses it’s prone to high winds from time to time, but the forecast appears to be pretty mild this week and there were some heavy rains on Tuesday and Wednesday which should’ve softened things up considerably. The players absolutely tear this place apart, with the cut generally sitting in the 4-5 under range and a winning score around 25-under. Taylor Pendrith got the job done last year at minus-23 and can currently be backed at 37.0 on the BETDAQ exchange, but all eyes this week will be on World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who is still looking for his first victory of 2025. Scottie’s mini cold streak hasn’t slowed the market’s belief in him much, as he’s currently trading at 4.0, the shortest pre-tourney favorite price we’ve seen on Tour this year.
Here are three I have my eye on this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Byeong-hun An (35.0)- After a run of poor form to start the year, An has found his game over these past couple of months, making five straight cuts with three top-25s in that span and a T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’s been driving the ball beautifully, ranking 19th on Tour in strokes gained off the tee and 8th in total driving efficiency, and his putting has improved massively, as he’s been inside the top-50 in putting average all season, which is a quantum leap from where he was a few years ago. This will be his third consecutive appearance at this event and given his results these past two years — a T14 in 2023 and a 4th-place showing last year — it’s safe to say that he likes it at TPC Craig Ranch. An has as good of a chance this week as anyone not named Scheffler and is therefore a nice value at a price like 35.0.
Mackenzie Hughes (52.0)- Hughes has gotten hot over the past few weeks, finding the top-25 in 3 of his past 5 starts and playing especially well in his last two outings, a 10th-place finish at the Houston Open and a T3 at the RBC Heritage, a Signature Event with an elite field. He’s 27 under par in his past eight competitive rounds, with 69 being the highest score in that stretch, and he has a history of good performances on easy courses that yield lots of birdies — he’s not scared to go low. TPC Craig Ranch is one such track, of course, and he played very well here two years ago, posting 17-under and finishing T14. Hughes has two PGA Tour wins to his credit so he knows how to close the deal, and with the exception of Scheffler, there aren’t too many players in the field this week who Hughes should be worried about if he keeps up his current form. He’s a great bet at better than 50/1.
Michael Thorbjornsen (92.0)- College golf’s top player in 2024, Thorbjornsen is a young guy who hits the ball nine miles, ranking 4th on Tour in driving distance (316.2 yards per drive) and 7th in total driving efficiency. He got off to a slow start this season but broke through with a runner-up finish at the Corales Puntacana two weeks ago and followed that up by finishing 4th in last week’s Zurich team event, partnering with Karl Vilips to post a four-round total of 25-under 263. These recent results should take some pressure off of Thorbjornsen and give him a bit of confidence, and though he’s never played TPC Craig Ranch in competition, it’s the type of spacious, gettable course that should help a young guy like this build on his growing confidence. Thorbjornsen has all the tools and isn’t afraid to go low — this could be a career-changing week for him.
