JOHN DEERE: The PGA Tour makes its annual pilgrimage to the Quad Cities of the American Midwest this week for a tournament that has carved out a niche as one of the great under-the-radar stops on the schedule, the John Deere Classic. Though it’s no longer held the week before the Open and has therefore abandoned its fun tradition of chartering a plane on Sunday night for players headed to the UK, it still has that “last stop before the links” feel, considering that next week’s Scottish Open has become a proper world class event with a star-studded field.
This week will be nothing like what players will experience at the Renaissance Club and then Royal Portrush — the course, the skillset required to succeed, the vibe and intensity… all totally different. TPC Deere Run, which has played host to this event since 2000, is a beautifully manicured parkland-style course that simply isn’t difficult enough to pose a serious challenge for the world’s best players. That’s not a knock on the place — sometimes watching the pros string together birdies is more enjoyable than watching them struggle for pars — but it’s something that we should understand very clearly when handicapping this event. It’s taken 20-under or better to win here in 12 of the past 15 years, and the three years it fell short of that number the winning scores were 19-under (twice) and 18-under. Davis Thompson shattered the tournament record last year, posting 28-under 256 (!) en route to a 4-shot victory. At Deere Run, the fairways are wide and soft enough, the greens are receptive and smooth enough… if you want to collect the big check this week, you’d better bring your birdies.
The names atop BETDAQ’s Win Market won’t strike any fear into the hearts of the rest of the field, so it’s reasonable to assume that things might be a bit more wide-open than usual this week and the long odds types should therefore be given extra consideration. That being said, only once in the past decade has a triple-digit longshot won this tournament, and last year’s champion, Thompson, was among the favorites, starting the week at 24.0. Like many other venues on Tour, Deere Run is a “horses for courses” type of track, and the same guys seem to play well here every year. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Denny McCarthy (27.0)- McCarthy has been rock solid this season, making the cut in all 16 of his starts and racking up eight top-25 finishes. He’s come close to breaking though a couple of times recently, finishing T8 at the PGA Championship and 12th at the Travelers last time out, when a second-round 64 had him in the thick of contention heading into the weekend. Due to his success over the past couple of years McCarthy’s schedule these days is pretty much a steady diet of Signature Events and Majors, but he made an exception this week due to his affinity for this tournament, and especially TPC Deere Run. Over his past 16 rounds here, spanning his last three appearances, McCarthy is a combined 53 under par, finishing no worse than 7th in that span. What better place for him to break through for his first PGA Tour victory? He’ll be in the mix this weekend, and with the way he putts he’s going to be tough to beat out there.
Chris Gotterup (51.0)- In recent years this tournament has been all about young up-and-coming players breaking through, and Gotterup certainly fits the bill of a young guy on the rise. The 25-year-old is in the midst of the most consistent stretch of golf of his young career, finishing 28th or better in 8 of his past 10 starts, with four top-15s in that span. He’s been dominating courses tee to green, ranking 7th on Tour in both driving distance and GIR percentage, and he’s 27th in scrambling, so his short game hasn’t been too shabby, either. He’s only played this tournament twice and on one of those occasions, back in 2022, he nearly won, breaking 70 in all four rounds and finishing 4th. At a price like 50/1, Gotterup feels like a must-bet this week.
Eric Cole (110.0)- Cole is flying way under the radar this week for a few reasons, not the least of which is the fact that he had to WD from his last event, the Travelers Championship, due to an illness. He had been off to a good start in Connecticut, too, firing 68-67-69 over the first three rounds before getting sick. He’s apparently back to good health, however, and he’ll be looking to pick up where he left off at a place he really shined last year, finishing 7th at this tournament after opening with a scorching 62. Cole has been a bit inconsistent this year, but he did finish 5th at the CJ Cup a few weeks back and has shown throughout his career that he’s very capable of stringing some low rounds together and playing himself into the mix come Sunday. He’s a great value at such an astronomical price.
