After an entertaining four days at Chambers Bay we return to normalcy this week, as the PGA Tour stops at TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut for the 32nd consecutive year. Four of the top 16 players in the world are in the field, led by Bubba Watson (5th), who won this event back in 2010, finished 2nd in 2012 and 4th in 2013. Watson can be backed at 15.5 at BETDAQ; only Brandt Snedeker (15.0) is currently saddled with shorter odds.
Kevin Streelman (50.0) was victorious here last year after he birdied his final seven holes on Sunday, becoming the first player in PGA Tour history to win a tournament in such a manner. Streelman is one of 37 players in the field who played in last week’s U.S. Open, and whether or not those players will be adversely affected by mental and/or physical exhaustion is certainly something to consider.
TPC River Highlands is short by Tour standards, measuring just 6,841 yards, but accuracy off the tee is critical and the course can become really tricky if the greens dry out, so players who can consistently put the ball in the fairway are at a significant advantage here. That being said, guys like Freddie Jacobson and Brad Faxon have won this event in the past, so straightness off the tee is not a hard-and-fast requirement for success (I guess being one of the best putters in the world is helpful too…who’d have thunk it?).
Our own streak of picking top-5 finishers was snapped last week, as none of our three U.S. Open selections sniffed the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday (though we did win both tournament match bets). That means it’s time to start a new streak, and we may as well make it “winners” instead of “top-5 finishers”, don’t you think? Here are this week’s selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Patrick Reed (22.0)- Reed has been extremely consistent this year, making 18 of 19 cuts with thirteen top-25 finishes, four top-10s and a victory. He was a contender last week before a subpar round on Saturday and he’s played well at TPC River Highlands in the past, finishing 18th here two years ago. He should be comfortable and confident this week, and he’s just a superb all-around player, ranking in the top-30 in both strokes gained tee-to-green and strokes gained putting (one of only three players who can make that claim). A good value at the current price.
Francesco Molinari (42.0)- Molinari has been playing some fabulous golf in recent weeks, notching top-5 finishes in three of his past five events and hanging tough at last week’s U.S. Open despite being at a clear disadvantage due to the length of Chambers Bay. That disadvantage won’t be in play this week for the short-hitting Molinari, though, because TPC River Highlands is one of the shortest courses on Tour. And while Molinari will never be confused with Bubba Watson or Dustin Johnson, he may be the most accurate driver of the golf ball in the entire world, as he currently leads the PGA Tour in percentage of fairways hit by a wide margin (79.3%, second place is 72.3%). He’s never played this tournament before but if you were trying to draw up a “Francesco Molinari golf course”, I think it would look a lot like River Highlands.
Padraig Harrington (270.0)- Harrington hasn’t played very well since his final-round 67 at The Players Championship, missing cuts in Charlotte and Memphis, but I have a feeling he may be a sneaky-good longshot play this week. He’s a tireless worker who’s had a couple of weeks off, so there’s reason to think he may have improved since his showing at the St. Jude, and he always seems to play well at TPC River Highlands, never missing a cut in this event and giving the leaders a scare a few times (finished 5th in 2010, 11th in 2012, and opened with back-to-back 66s in 2013). He came out of nowhere to win the Honda Classic earlier this year– his struggles were even more pronounced heading into that tournament than they are now– so the blueprint is already in place. While a Harrington victory this week would certainly be a bit of a surprise, I think he has a much better chance than his odds would indicate. He’s worth a bet.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Marc Leishman (1.91) vs. Tony Finau (1.91)
Finau has been on fire lately, finishing in the top-20 in each of his last five tournaments, including last week’s U.S. Open. Does the 25-year old have enough gas left in the tank for another good showing this week, though? I’d be surprised if he were able to beat Leishman, a man who is also playing well (finished 5th at The Memorial two weeks ago) and who has a great record at TPC River Highlands, winning this event in 2012 and finishing 11th last year. Recommendation: Leishman at 1.91
Branden Grace (1.91) vs. Harris English (1.91)
If my bet against Tony Finau is partially a bet on him running out of gas after a grueling week at Chambers Bay, then you can count this play as fully doubling-down on that theory. Grace had simply never experienced anything like what he had to deal with last week– playing in the next-to-last group on Sunday in a major– and I’ll be stunned if he’s his “normal” self this week. I’ll happily take my chances with Harris English, who finished 7th in this tournament last year and has been playing fairly well of late, making the cut in each of his last three starts and shooting par or better in 10 if his past 12 competitive rounds. Recommendation: English at 1.91
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