San Diego Chargers (5-3, 5-3 ATS) @ Miami Dolphins (4-3, 4-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Miami -1.5 (45)
Significant Injuries
San Diego: RB Donald Brown (questionable– concussion), LB Jeremiah Attaochu (questionable– hamstring), CB Brandon Flowers (questionable– concussion), CB Jason Verrett (questionable– shoulder), S Jahleel Addae (questionable– head), LB Manti Te’o (out– foot), RB Ryan Mathews (out– knee)
Miami: G Billy Turner (questionable– foot), G Shelley Smith (questionable– knee), S Jimmy Wilson (questionable– hamstring), LB Koa Misi (questionable– ankle), G Daryn Colledge (questionable– migrane)
Recent Trends
San Diego is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games
San Diego is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss
San Diego is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 4-0 in San Diego’s last 4 games following a loss
The UNDER is 5-2 in San Diego’s last 7 road games
The UNDER is 4-1-1 in Miami’s last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Miami’s last 26 games vs. AFC opponents
Three reasons to back San Diego
1. The Chargers are just better than the Dolphins: they have a better record, they score more points, surrender fewer points, and they’ve performed better against the spread. Miami is only favored here because they’ve won two games in a row while San Diego has lost two straight, but keep in mind that Miami’s wins came over Chicago and Jacksonville, two struggling teams, while the Chargers lost to Kansas City and Denver , who were both playoff teams last year. The superior team is getting points in this situation.
2. The San Diego defense has been excellent this season, surrendering just 18.6 points per game and ranking in the top-half of the league in both rushing defense and passing defense. Miami has only faced two other teams that rank in the top-10 in points allowed (Buffalo, Kansas City) and in those two games they produced just 25 combined points.
3. The Dolphins were outplayed by the lowly Jaguars throughout most of last week’s game and now they get the Chargers, a contending team that ranks in the top-10 in both points scored and points allowed. San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers is having one of the best seasons of his illustrious career and he gives the Chargers a clear edge at the quarterback position.
Three reasons to back Miami
1. The Dolphins seem to be peaking, as a last-second Aaron Rodgers touchdown pass is the only thing standing between them and a 4-game winning streak. The Chargers, meanwhile, have regressed badly over the past three weeks, squeaking by Oakland in Week 6 before losing consecutive games to Denver and Kansas City. One team is one the way up, the other on the way down.
2. San Diego has been solid on defense this season but they’ve struggled lately against the run, surrendering 293 combined rushing yards in their last two games (both losses). That sets up perfectly for the run-first Dolphins, who rank 6th in rushing offense thanks in part to the creative read option-based schemes installed by first-year coordinator Bill Lazor.
3. The Chargers are extremely one-dimensional on offense, as they average just 85.8 rushing yards per game, and only two teams are currently allowing fewer pass yards per game than the Dolphins. That means Philip Rivers will be attacking the strength of the Miami defense, which may not work out too well for him or his team.
Prediction
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