Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6, 2-5 ATS) @ Cleveland Browns (4-3, 4-1-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Cleveland -6.5 (43.5)
Significant Injuries
Tampa Bay: RB Doug Martin (questionable– ankle), LB Brandon Magee (questionable– knee), QB Josh McCown (out– thumb), DE Daquan Bowers (out– suspension)
Cleveland: DT Billy Winn (questionable– quadricep), TE Jordan Cameron (questionable– concussion), WR Rodney Smith (questionable– hamstring), DT Phil Taylor (out– knee), C Alex Mack (out– leg), WR Josh Gordon (out– suspension)
Recent Trends
Tampa Bay is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning record
Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss
Tampa Bay is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall
Cleveland is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games
Cleveland is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 4-0 in Tampa Bay’s last 4 road games
The OVER is 4-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 5 games overall
The OVER is 7-3 in Cleveland’s last 10 home games
Three reasons to back Tampa Bay
1. The Bucs have played well in their last two road games, winning in Pittsburgh in Week 4 and then going to New Orleans and taking the Saints to overtime in Week 5. They’re 20-8 against the number in their last 28 road games against teams with winning records, while Cleveland has covered just twice in their last 8 games against teams with losing records.
2. The Browns have a terrible defense that ranks 29th in yards allowed and 30th against the run, and their offense, which was the strength of the team early in the season, has regressed badly in recent weeks. They produced just 29 combined points in their last two games despite facing Oakland and Jacksonville, who have two of the league’s worst defenses. The Cleveland running game has completely fallen apart since the loss of center Alex Mack.
3. With the exception of two games– a 42-point loss to Atlanta and a 31-point loss to Baltimore– the Bucs have been very competitive this season, as all 5 of their other games have been decided by 6 points or fewer. Taking that into consideration, the 6.5-point number here feels a bit excessive.
Three reasons to back Cleveland
1. The Browns have been solid this season and they’ve been especially good at home, winning 3 times in 4 opportunities and going 3-0-1 against the spread. The Bucs, on the other hand, have won just once all year and boast a worse point differential (-90) than all but one team leaguewide.
2. Tampa ranks 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) in both total offense and total defense and they surrender a league-worst 31.9 points per game. The Browns, meanwhile, rank in the top-half of the league in both points scored and points allowed. This is an obvious mismatch.
3. The Cleveland offense has exceeded expectations this season and they’ve played well lately, scoring 23 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Quarterback Brian Hoyer is coming off an outing in which he threw for 275 yards on just 19 completions, and this week he’ll face a Tampa secondary the has surrendered a staggering 286 pass yards per game this year. A big day from Hoyer and the Browns offense is expected.
Prediction
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