SNOW PROBLEMS: SHAMROCK landed his NAP with the minimum of fuss yesterday. His nap and only bet of the day SNOW FALCON (NAP) WON EVENS. The perfect start to Irish Champion Hurdle weekend!
What a day to look forward to at Leopardstown !! The going remains soft, yielding in places on the hurdle course and soft on the chase track.
1:40 Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+, Class 1, 2m 1f, 3 runners)
Whilst it’s not great to have just three runners for a Grade 1 prize of €48,000 to the winner – this looks a fascinating contest with the BETDAQ market quite tight at 1.72, 4 and 5.2.
Even if you don’t bet today it’s an absolutely essential race to watch for the future with the race likely to have big implications on the Arkle market.
All three of today’s runners are prominent in the ante-post market but Un De Sceaux tops the betting both for today and the Arkle at Cheltenham.
It’s the classic case of potential over proven form and Un De Sceaux still has plenty to prove over fences.
He was unbeaten in five starts over hurdles and then fell on his chasing debut at Thurles at odds of 1/8.
He made amends in grand style at Fairyhouse making all the running to win by 12 lengths with 30 lengths back to the third.
Gilgamboa has also taken well to the larger obstacles and was particularly impressive in a Grade 2 novice chase at Limerick last time out winning by 24 lengths,
Clarcam is the one with Grade 1 winning form already on his CV. He won the Racing Post Novice Chase over course and distance – the race in which Vautour disappointed. It would be wrong though to take anything away from a great performance of Clarcam.
On balance I have to stick with the untapped potential of Un De Sceaux.
2:45 BHP Insurances Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo+, Class 1, 2m, 6 runners)
Where to start ? Hurricane Fly of course. I’ve long run out of superlatives and today he bids for a record breaking fifth successive win in this race, a 22nd Grade 1 victory and to maintain his unbeaten record at Leopardstown.
Standing in his way (primarily) is Jezki again – and I think it will be the same result. Hurricane Fly in front. I simply think he’s a better horse and it’s more a case of waiting to see when the four year difference in age will start to tell. Hurricane Fly is 2-1 up this season and Jezki disappointed in this last season finishing last of the four runners.
Willie Mullins said: “Our fellow really excels on soft ground, so it’s probably not ideal, but at this stage we have to take what we get. I hope it will be a good race on Sunday. Hurricane Fly is a small but very strong horse with a big heart and he doesn’t like to lose, winning is part of his make-up and he’s very determined. You wouldn’t think he was an 11-year-old on a morning. Early in his career he missed races through injuries and needed time out every so often as he was so strong and wilful.”
Hurricane Fly to blow the roof off the Leopardstown stands.
The double is paying 3.33 on BETDAQ MULTIPLES which is my nap bet on Super Sunday.
SHAMROCK’S BETS:
NAP: A double on UN DE SCEAUX and HURRICANE FLY
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