St. Louis Rams (2-5, 2-5 ATS) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-3, 4-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: San Francisco -10 (43.5)
Significant Injuries
St. Louis: CB Trumaine Johnson (questionable– knee), C Tim Barnes (questionable– shoulder), CB Janoris Jenkins (questionable– knee), OT Roger Saffold (questionable– shoulder), C Scott Wells (questionable– elbow), WR Brian Quick (out– shoulder)
San Francisco: C Marcus Martin (questionable– knee), LB Patrick Willis (questionable– toe), S Jimmie Ward (questionable– quadricep), CB Chris Culliver (questionable– shoulder), RB Marcus Lattimore (out– knee), LB Aldon Smith (out– suspension)
Recent Trends
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. NFC West opponents
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 14 points
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss
San Francisco is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 4-0 in St. Louis’ last 4 games vs. NFC opponents
The UNDER is 5-1 in St. Louis’ last 6 road games
The UNDER is 4-0 in San Francisco’s last 4 games following a loss
The OVER is 15-3 in San Francisco’s last 18 games following a bye week
Three reasons to back St. Louis
1. The Rams are better than their 2-5 record indicates: they’ve already won on the road this season, they beat defending Super Bowl champion Seattle two weeks ago, and they lost to Dallas and Philadelphia– the two best teams in the NFC East– by 9 combined points.
2. The Niners have been consistently overvalued this season and in their last game they suffered the worst loss of the Jim Harbaugh era, a 42-17 stomping at the hands of the Denver Broncos. Injuries have taken their toll, as the once-fearsome 49ers defense now ranks a mediocre 18th in points allowed. They have no business being double-digit favorites over anybody right now, much less a division rival.
3. Losing by more than 10 points in San Francisco would be an extremely rare result for the Rams, as they’ve lost by more than 10 just once in their last 6 trips to the Bay Area. They also showed two weeks ago that they can shut down the formidable 49ers running game, holding the Niners to 89 rushing yards on 30 carries.
Three reasons to back San Francisco
1. These teams met three weeks ago in St. Louis and the Niners cruised to an easy 14-point victory, as Colin Kaepernick lit up the Rams secondary for 343 passing yards and the 49ers defense kept the Rams out of the end zone for the final three quarters. Why would anyone expect anything different this time around, especially since the game is in San Francisco?
2. San Francisco has always responded well to defeat under Jim Harbaugh, covering in 4 of their past 5 games following a loss. They were beaten by Denver in Week 7 and had a bye last week, so St. Louis will be facing a rested, motivated team on Sunday. That doesn’t bode well for the visitors, especially when you consider that the Rams are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 road games.
3. The Rams have one of the NFL’s worst defenses, a unit that has surrendered more points this season than all but one team leaguewide (30 ppg allowed). They’re especially bad against the run, ranking 31st in rushing defense, and San Francisco averages over 125 yards per game on the ground. The Niners will be able to move the ball at will i this game, making a St. Louis bet a risky proposition even with the 10-point line.
Prediction
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