Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1, 8-6-1 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5, 8-7 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Pittsburgh -3.5 (48)
Significant Injuries
Cincinnati: CB Adam Jones (questionable– illness), CB Terence Newman (questionable– illness), S Reggie Nelson (questionable– illness), LB Emmanuel Lamur (questionable– hamstring), WR James Wright (questionable– knee)
Pittsburgh: TE Michael Palmer (questionable– groin), S Troy Polamalu (questionable– knee), CB Ike Taylor (questionable– shoulder)
Recent Trends
Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 December games
Cincinnati is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
Pittsburgh is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 5-0 in Cincinnati’s last 5 road games
The OVER is 6-1 in Cincinnati’s last 7 December games
The OVER is 6-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 7 home games
The OVER is 7-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record
Three reasons to back Cincinnati
1. The Bengals have been rolling lately, winning 5 of their past 6 games and doing so in style, as their last two wins have come by 39 combined points. Of course, Marvin Lewis’ team is always a great bet in the month of December, covering 9 times in their last 11 opportunities. It’s also worth mentioning that the visiting team generally performs well in this rivalry, going 17-8-1 ATS over the past 13 meetings.
2. The Cincinnati defense was dominant last season and they’ve returned to form in recent weeks, limiting 4 of their last 6 opponents to 13 points or fewer. Their strength is the secondary, which should serve them well this week against the pass-first Pittsburgh offense.
3. The Andy Dalton-led Bengals offense has been clicking on all cylinders lately, producing 88 combined points in the team’s last three games. Last week they hung 37 on Denver’s 3rd-ranked defense, so they shouldn’t have any trouble with a porous Pittsburgh D that ranks 20th in yards allowed and 28th against the pass. The Steelers have surrendered 20 points or more in 12 of their 15 games this season.
Three reasons to back Pittsburgh
1. The Steelers have won 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5, so they’re clearly playing well at the moment. They’ve been especially good when faced with quality opposition, covering in 7 straight games against teams with winning records. And, of course, these teams met in Cincinnati just 3 weeks ago and it wasn’t even competitive, as the Steelers ran away with a 21-point win.
2. Pittsburgh ranks 2nd in the NFL in total offense, 2nd in pass yards per game, and 7th in points scored. They’re averaging 29.6 points per game over their last 5 contests and they’ve scored 20 points or more in 8 of their past 9 games. The last time they faced Cincinnati they put up 42 points and Ben Roethlisberger threw for 350 yards. The Bengals, who average a mere 23 points per game, will not be able to keep pace.
3. Cincinnati has morphed into a run-first offense over the past few weeks– they rank 5th in rush yards per game but 22nd in pass yards– and that should play right into the hands of the Pittsburgh defense, a unit that struggles in the secondary but excels at defending the run. The Steelers surrender just 98 rush yards per game, the 6th-best mark in the league, and they held the Bengals to just 86 yards on the ground the last time these teams met. If it comes down to Ben Roethlisberger vs. Andy Dalton, the Steelers are at a tremendous advantage.
Prediction
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