San Francisco 49ers (4-2, 4-2 ATS) @ Denver Broncos (4-1, 2-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Denver -6.5 (495)
Significant Injuries
San Francisco: CB Chris Culliver (questionable– shoulder), S Jimmie Ward (questionable– quadricep), CB Tramaine Brock (questionable– toe), OT Anthony Davis (questionable– knee), G Mike Iupati (out– concussion), LB Patrick Willis (out– toe)
Denver: RB Montee Ball (out– groin)
Recent Trends
San Francisco is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games
San Francisco is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a Monday night game
Denver is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games
Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win
The UNDER is 4-0 in San Francisco’s last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 5-1 in San Francisco’s last 6 road games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Denver’s last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
The OVER is 10-2 in Denver’s last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Three reasons to back San Francisco
1. This week the 49ers face a Denver team that has been overvalued and overrated all season. The Broncos covered in just 1 of their first 4 games and would’ve failed their bettors again last week if not for a late pick-six. They’re without starting running back Montee Ball, meaning their offense will be even more one-dimensional than usual, and the passing attack just hasn’t been the same without Eric Decker and with a diminished Wes Welker. The Broncos are ripe for the picking.
2. The Niners have a stout defense that ranks 2nd in yards allowed and 2nd against the pass, and Denver’s offense has been surprisingly average with the exception of a Week 5 game against Arizona. The Broncos haven’t faced a defense as good as San Francisco’s since last year’s Super Bowl, and it’ll be interesting to see if their offense gets bullied and pushed around once again.
3. The Denver defense surrendered 130 rushing yards to Seattle in a Week 3 loss and they haven’t really been tested since. They’ll most definitely be tested by San Francisco’s exceptional offensive line and their vet/rookie combo of Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde. The Niners are averaging 135.7 rushing yards per game, and if they reach or exceed that total it means that Peyton Manning will be spending lots of time watching from the sideline, which is just what you want if you’re backing the 6.5-point ‘dog.
Three reasons to back Denver
1. The Broncos won the AFC last year and they’re off to a great start again this season, as their only loss thus far came in overtime on the road in Seattle, which certainly isn’t anything to be ashamed of. All four of their wins have come by 7 points or more.
2. The Denver offense deserves all the praise that it gets– after all, the Broncos average nearly 390 yards and 30 points per game. However, the Denver defense is also playing at a championship level this season, as they currently rank 4th in yards allowed and 7th in points allowed. They’re especially good against the run, surrendering just 76.8 rush yards per game, and that should serve them well against the run-first Niners, who average over 135 yards per game on the ground. If the Broncos are able to stymie the San Francisco rushing attack then the game will come down to Colin Kaepernick vs. Peyton Manning, at which point Denver bettors are free to begin counting their money.
3. Hanging with the Broncos in Denver is tough enough as it is, but San Francisco enters Sunday night’s game without some of their best players on both sides of the ball. Linebacker Patrick Willis, the anchor of the 49ers defense, will miss this game, as will guard Mike Iupati, who is one of the best run-blocking offensive linemen in the league. With several other players officially listed as questionable, I think it’s fair to say that a “shorthanded” San Francisco team will be visiting Denver this week.
Prediction
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