FA CUP FOURTH ROUND: The Striker previews LEYTON ORIENT v MANCHESTER CITY, BIRMINGHAM CITY v NEWCASTLE and BRIGHTON v CHELSEA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LEYTON ORIENT V MANCHESTER CITY
12.15pm It’s another big Saturday in the FA Cup on with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have a hectic afternoon with plenty of fixtures to go through – we have some massive favourites and then the highlight of the day as Brighton host Chelsea. We kick off Saturday with Leyton Orient hosting Manchester City – this is a David v Goliath situation, and City are trading the shortest price of the Fourth Round. City are trading as short as 1.12 at the time of writing with Leyton Orient 29.0 and the draw is 13.0. I know City have been really struggling this season – they got another hammering against Arsenal last weekend – but surely the gulf in class is too big here. With City so short in the match odds market, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. Leyton Orient are having a decent season in League One, and they have nothing to lose here so they might as well go for it. At times this season City have been all over the place at the back – although Manchester United have been the butt of many jokes in the Premier League this season, City have actually conceded more goals this season!
Leyton Orient have mainly focused on being rock solid at the back this season. In fairness, in the lower leagues that approach tends to get more results when you have limited quality in your side. Their average xG created is only 1.3 which is a mid-table figure in League One – their average xG conceded is more impressive at only 1.0. I know there’s a massive gulf in class between the Premier League and League One, but that’s the third best defensive figure in League One this season. With City so short and the market expecting a very comfortable win, you have to look at high handicaps here – you’d have to be looking at City -2.5 goals or 3.5 goals and while they could easily cover those lines, their recent form doesn’t inspire confidence to be fair. I feel while City will win, Leyton Orient can get on the score sheet at some stage. Both Teams To Score is trading 2.36 and I feel this is a much better value option compared to backing City at shorter odds to cover handicap lines. Obviously this is a game for small stakes, but the 2.36 looks worthy of a small investment.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 2.36 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FALeMa
BIRMINGHAM CITY V NEWCASTLE
5.45pm The next pick for BBC on Saturday is Birmingham hosting Newcastle. It’s already been a superb week for Newcastle in Cup football as they made it to the Carabao Cup Final midweek with another excellent win over Arsenal. That was the perfect boost after they’ve lost two of their last three in the Premier League, and they’re going to find it very tough in the battle for European spots given Manchester City are outside the Top Four at the moment! This is a game that Newcastle will be expected to win given the gulf in class between the Premier League and League One, but Birmingham must come into this game full of confidence given they sit top of League One. They currently have a four point advantage at the top of the table, and they have an average xG conceded under 1.0 which is obviously impressive in any league. As well as Newcastle, Birmingham are also having a decent season in Cup football – they recently won their Quarter-Final of the Football League Trophy. As you would expect, Newcastle come into the game as the odds on favourites here – they are trading 1.53 with Birmingham 6.4 and the draw is 5.0 at the time of writing.
While there is a massive gulf in class between the leagues, Birmingham are nearly a lock for Championship football next season. However, we’ve watched all the promoted sides from the Championship to the Premier League struggled for a few seasons now. There’s just so much money in the top flight now it’s hard to bridge the gap. While Birmingham have been solid at the back in League One, Newcastle haven’t in the Premier League. Their average xG conceded is too high at 1.49, but so far they have been getting away with things. They are also over-performing their attacking figure too – I expect Newcastle will likely get the job done here, but the 1.53 doesn’t make much appeal to me. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market, and I like two options here; Over 2.5 goals at a couple of ticks bigger than the Newcastle price, and Both Teams To Score at 1.75. I expect a pretty entertaining game here; Newcastle tend to concede a few chances and we should see an open game given Birmingham have home advantage. I’m happy with a small position on Overs.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FABiNe
BRIGHTON V CHELSEA
8pm We finish Saturday in the FA Cup with the highlight of the day as Brighton host Chelsea. These two sides have had rollercoaster seasons so far in the Premier League, and a Cup run would be very welcome – especially for Brighton who are sitting in mid-table at the moment. They have faced a lot of criticism for some things off the pitch, and it looks like they will miss out on European football this season too. They’ve struggled to win games – only two wins from their last twelve Premier League games, and then they were completely embarrassed by Nottingham Forest at the weekend with a 7-0 loss. Scores like that must be terrible for morale, but at the same time a line in the sand is drawn – from a Brighton point of view you’d be hoping to see a big reaction here. A Cup game might be a welcome change too. Chelsea have had similar problems in the sense that they haven’t been winning many games recently – as soon as people started talking about them as the main challengers to Liverpool, they went five games without a win and that was their “title hopes” up in smoke.
Chelsea have two wins from their last eight Premier League games, which is a better return than Brighton but still quite average. They’ve dropped points to the likes of Everton, Fulham, Ipswich, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth too – hardly the most different fixture list! Chelsea come into the game as the favourites at 2.38 with Brighton 3.1 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. Obviously it’s quite easy to pick negative points with both sides given their current run, but it’s hard to have any confidence in Brighton at the moment – I would definitely lean towards Chelsea here, but I am happy to stay out of the match odds market. This game absolutely screams goals in my opinion with both sides being very sloppy at the back recently. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.58 and Both Teams To Score is trading four ticks shorter at 1.54. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet, but I expect a very open and end-to-end game here – I’m happy with a confident bet on Overs to finish a very interesting FA Cup Saturday!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FABrCh
