SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews REAL MADRID v ATLETICO MADRID with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL MADRID V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm We have a blockbuster La Liga tie from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange! It’s a top of the table Madrid Derby as Real Madrid host Atletico Madrid. We had one of the shocks of the La Liga season last weekend when Espanyol managed to get a 1-0 win over Real Madrid – that was a huge result for Espanyol in the relegation battle, but it also means that Real Madrid are only one point ahead of Atletico Madrid coming into this tie. The sides played out a 1-1 draw earlier in the season in dramatic fashion with Atletico Madrid scoring in the 95th minute to get a point. How much drama will we see here?
That game was exceptionally even. Possession was 51%/49% and there was only 0.02 between them on xG too. Real Madrid come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.96 with Atletico Madrid 4.3 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. Atletico Madrid have been exceptionally solid at the back this season – they’ve basically been them classic selves under Diego Simeone. They’ve conceded the fewest goals in La Liga this season, and they’ve been really grinding out results. You just know Real Madrid are going to have to work exceptionally hard if they are to win here, and I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.96 on the home win.
Obviously Real Madrid have been playing some superb football this season, but I do expect this game to be closer than those odds suggest. Both sides have actually been very good at the back this season – they are both sitting in the top five on average xG conceded figures. Under 2.5 goals is trading odds against here, and that looks a good value bet to me at 2.14. However, we usually see fireworks in this fixture. The last two meetings have finished 1-1, but prior to that Over 2.5 goals landed in five of the previous six fixtures – the other fixture was 1-1 too. If fact, Both Teams To Score has landed in the last eight meetings. That’s trading at 1.74, even allowing for the fact that both sides have been rock solid at the back.
Real Madrid have been creating more than Atletico this season – their average xG created is 1.81 compared to Atletico at 1.49. Although they have home advantage here, I still wouldn’t have Real odds on – at times this season they have struggled with their system, and you just know that Atletico are going to be very well set up at the back by Simeone. I expect a closer game than the odds suggest here, and while there are options in the goals market, I feel the best value play is a Real Madrid lay at the odds. This should be a cracker!
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Real Madrid to beat Atletico Madrid at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaAma
