PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews WEST HAM v NOTTINGHAM FOREST and ARSENAL v NEWCASTLE both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WEST HAM V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
2.15pm It’s a busy Super Sunday from the Premier League on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! Next Sunday is the final matchday of the season, and we’re really at the business end now. With the title decided and all the relegation spots, the only possible drama left this season is the race for European spots. We have five games to enjoy on Sunday, but it’s easy to pick the big two. Arsenal v Newcastle is the highlight fixture of the day, but we begin with another massive clash for Nottingham Forest as they travel to take on West Ham. That term “finishing the season in an ambulance” always feels a bit cruel, but that’s what Nottingham Forest have been doing. After looking like they were set for Champions League football, Forest have dropped a lot of points on the run-in and now come into the weekend sitting down in seventh, even outside the Europa League spots. They’ll be cheering for a Manchester City win in the FA Cup on Saturday so there will be an extra Europa League spot! As I said have mentioned many times, Forest have been massively over-performing this season so this run isn’t really a surprise for anyone who likes xG figures – if anything there results have fallen in line with their performance level.
Forest are in the bottom seven on attacking figures, and they have the joint-fifth worst defensive figure in the Premier League. Their average xG conceded is as high as 1.69, but their actual goals conceded average is only 1.22 which is why they have been so high in the table. The manager has done remarkably well this season, which is why there was so much outcry after the owner came onto the pitch after the draw with Leicester last weekend. Over-performing can sometimes cause you a lot of problems down the road when things go back to “normal!” This should be an interesting game, and we have a very open betting heat. Nottingham Forest come into the game as the favourites at 2.72 with West Ham 2.86 and the draw is 3.45 at the time of writing – this game is actually the most open betting heat this weekend. The club that Forest have the joint-fifth defensive figure with is West Ham, so this should be an entertaining game. I have to say I don’t agree with the market here having Forest as favourites, but obviously the sides are evenly matched on performance levels and West Ham have nothing to play for. That being said, I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market because this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 2.02 and that looks superb value. I’m happy with a Five Star NAP – I’d have this odds on.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesNfo
ARSENAL V NEWCASTLE
4.30pm We finish Super Sunday with another very interesting game and market as Arsenal host Newcastle. For Arsenal, the season has been over for a while now – even the most optimistic Arsenal fan knew the writing was on the wall in the title race for a number of weeks. They crashed out of the Champions League at the Semi-Final stage, then had to deal with all the fanfare of being at Anfield a few days after. They will be glad to be back at home now, even if they have nothing to play for. Obviously we’ve had a huge debate this week around Arteta and his position as manager – his comments after the PSG game really haven’t helped his cause. He’s spent a lot of money but the reality is it’s been hard to compete in this era with Manchester City and Liverpool – he has at least turned Arsenal backed into title challengers and that is an achievement after the Wenger era. You only have to look at Manchester United for how difficult it is to cope with losing a manager like that. For Newcastle, they have a lot to play for – they can confirm a Champions League spot with a win here – they are unlikely to fall out of the top five, but back-to-back losses over the last two matchdays could put them in trouble so they still have a job to do.
Given they have home advantage, it’s no surprise to see Arsenal come into the game as the favourites but there are plenty of willing layers as they aren’t trading odds on. Arsenal are 2.08 with Newcastle 3.85 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. It might not feel like it given Arsenal have been the main title challengers, but a win here for Newcastle would see them jump over Arsenal and into second. On performance levels, Arsenal are well clear of Newcastle but obviously these games are tricky given Arsenal have nothing to play for – granted they won’t want to lose second spot. They have been very impressive at the back this season; they have the best defensive figure with an average xG conceded of just 1.09. I do feel that the 2.08 is a little short given the situation, and the draw is appealing bet at 3.8. I do feel we’ll see some action in front of goal, and Over 2.5 goals is odds on at 1.8 with Both Teams To Score trading 1.73. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet to be honest, but I feel the value play here is a small position on the draw – this should be a close game in my opinion and I’d have the draw shorter.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArlNew
