SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s scheduled games between WOLVES v CHELSEA, NEWCASTLE v MAN CITY and SPURS v LIVERPOOL all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
WOLVES V CHELSEA
2pm We may have a shortened Premier League fixture list on Sunday with the current Covid19 outbreak but we have a fascinating day nonetheless with Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool all in action. We have three decent odds on favourites and they are all away from home, so it should be an interesting day on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Apart from Manchester City against Newcastle, the big question for Chelsea and Liverpool is whether to back or lay them at around 1.6. We start the day with Wolves hosting Chelsea after Chelsea lost further ground at the top of the table on Thursday night with a 1-1 draw against Everton. They had home advantage and Everton went into that game out of form, so it really was a big setback for Chelsea. Now they find themselves four points behind Manchester City after being three ahead, and it’s fair to say that the wheels have started to fall off the London club. They were very unlucky not to win on Thursday in fairness to them, they created an xG of 3.54 in a game they bossed from start to finish, but it just goes with the overall feeling at the moment that they are under pressure and results aren’t going their way.
Wolves were also in action midweek which was nice for them to avoid the games called off, and they managed a hard fought 1-0 win over Brighton. They were lucky to win to be honest as they conceded an xG of 1.84 and that performance did nothing to change my mind that they are out of form at the moment. Since beating West Ham, they created low xG figures against Norwich and Burnley, and conceded high xG figures to Liverpool and Man City while “only” losing 1-0. It was nice for them to get back to winning ways, but they still conceded a high xG. I know there are a lot of question marks about Chelsea at the moment and they are feeling the pressure, but their performance on Thursday night was still very good. The result will take the headlines, but when you look at the figures there’s only one winner here. Chelsea are playing much better football than Wolves, and if they both turn up in the same kind of form then Chelsea will win. I’m happy to keep stakes in check because I know confidence might be a little low in the Chelsea camp, but the 1.61 is too big to ignore and I’m happy to take it.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Chelsea to beat Wolves at 1.61 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWolche
● Wolves have won just three of their 14 Premier League meetings with Chelsea (D2 L9), though all three of those wins have come in home games (January 2011, December 2018 and December 2020).
● Chelsea have alternated between defeat (3) and victory (2) in their last five Premier League away games against Wolves, losing 2-1 in this fixture last season.
● Wolves have lost 12 of their last 15 games against reigning European champions in all competitions, winning the other three. They’ve lost their last five such games in a row since beating Liverpool 1-0 at Molineux in August 1981.
● Wolves’ home games have seen fewer goals scored than any other Premier League side’s this season (12 – F5 A7), with no side netting fewer home goals so far this term than Wolves.
● At West Ham last time out, Chelsea lost away from home in the Premier League under Thomas Tuchel for just the second time. The Blues last lost consecutive away league games in December 2020 – a run of three, in which the second defeat was against Wolves.
● Wolves’ last six Premier League matches have seen just four goals scored (two 1-0 wins, two 1-0 defeats, two 0-0 draws). It’s the fewest goals scored across a six-game spell by any team in the competition since Wigan in January/February 2009 (also four), with Wigan’s game after this run a 2-1 defeat to Chelsea.
● Chelsea have conceded at least once in each of their last five Premier League games – it’s their longest run without a clean sheet under Thomas Tuchel, and their longest overall run in the competition since January/February 2020 (6 under Frank Lampard).
● Reece James has provided five Premier League assists for Chelsea this season (13 games), one more than he had in his previous two campaigns combined (4 in 56 appearances).
● Mason Mount has scored in each of his last four Premier League games for Chelsea – the last player to score in five in a row in the competition for the Blues was Frank Lampard between April/August 2010.
● Chelsea’s Mason Mount has both scored and assisted a goal in his last two Premier League away games. Only two players have done so in three consecutive away appearances in the competition – Son Heung-min in January 2019 and Bruno Fernandes in November 2020.
NEWCASTLE V MANCHESTER CITY
2.15pm We might only have five Premier League fixtures this weekend, but we have the shortest price of the weekend as Newcastle host Manchester City. Even with ten games, City still would have been the shortest price! City are trading 1.2 at the time of writing, and it’s very hard to see anything bar a City win here. Newcastle have been a little unlucky with the fixture list having had to play Liverpool and Man City so close to the January transfer window when they will be trying to attract players in. As I said before, even with the huge money on offer not many players will be willing to come to a club that look like they are going down. They can come for a six month contract and then they left in no man’s land, or sign for longer and end up in the Championship – they’ll be on decent money but is that what they want? I have to say it’s a fascinating situation! It will be very interesting to see what the club does in the transfer window. Burnley didn’t play their fixture midweek but that was against Watford, so there will be a window there for Newcastle – they can target the loser of that game and there isn’t much between the bottom four. As I said midweek, there’s definitely a bottom four emerging and the question who is the lucky club to survive.
Newcastle fans will be looking at the City result midweek and hiding behind the couch here. City put seven past Leeds and completely controlled the game. Even with scoring seven goals, they still only conceded an xG of 0.26. They have been creating chances for fun this season, but they have also been solid at the back too. I don’t recall watching a game this season and feeling they were outplayed. Even when they lost to PSG in the Champions League, they created a bigger xG and were unlucky to lose. The question for me here is how many will City score – I can’t see past a City win, I don’t even think that’s in question. Newcastle took an early lead an Anfield midweek, but they were so poor afterwards – they conceded three but it took easily have been more. City can cover the handicap here, and I’m surprised to see 1.56 -1.5 goals. I feel that offers enough value to be a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Newcastle at 1.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNewmci
● Newcastle have won just one of their last 27 Premier League games against Manchester City (D4 L22), winning 2-1 at St James’ Park in January 2019.
● Manchester City have lost just one of their last 13 away league games against Newcastle (W9 D3). However, they’ve conceded seven goals across their last three visits to St James’ Park, more than they had in their previous 11 combined (6).
● Manchester City have scored in each of their last 25 Premier League games against Newcastle, last failing to do so in a 0-0 draw in November 2006. In the competition’s history, only Arsenal have had a longer scoring streak against a specific opponent (26 vs West Brom).
● Newcastle are unbeaten in their last five home league games against reigning top-flight champions, winning two and drawing three. They last had a longer such run between October 1987 and October 1996, a six-game run of which the final game was a 5-0 victory against Manchester United.
● Newcastle picked up their first Premier League win of the season in their last home game, beating Burnley 1-0. They’ve not won back-to-back Premier League home games since December 2019.
● Manchester City have won 33 Premier League games in 2021 – one more victory will see them set a new top-flight record for most wins in a single calendar year.
● Manchester City have won each of their last seven Premier League games, scoring 20 goals and conceding just three. It’s more wins than the Citizens had picked up in their first 10 league games this term (W6 D2 L2).
● Against no side have Manchester City netted more Premier League hat-tricks than they have against Newcastle (3), with Ferran Torres scoring a treble in this exact fixture last season.
● Newcastle boss Eddie Howe has lost all 10 of his Premier League games against Manchester City – the worst 100% losing record any manager has against a specific opponent in the competition’s history.
● Riyad Mahrez has scored 49 goals in 164 games for Manchester City in all competitions, with only Sergio Agüero (61), Gabriel Jesus (63) and Raheem Sterling (76) netting more for the Citizens since he joined the club in 2018.
TOTTENHAM V LIVERPOOL
4.30pm Although we have a shortened Premier League fixture list this weekend, we have kept the highlight fixture! Ironically, we managed to keep the highlight fixture midweek too as Arsenal and West Ham faced off. Of course, Spurs were the first Premier League club to be hit by a Covid19 outbreak and now they have a couple of games in hand on their rivals. They have slipped down the table, but if they were to win their three games in hand they would actually go into fourth. After the midweek round of games, they were four points behind Arsenal but had three games in hand. Their games in hand aren’t too difficult either, and you’d imagine they would take that fourth spot if those games were played next. The fixture list won’t work like that though, and there’s bound to be plenty of drama along the way. It will be interesting to see how they perform here and how their fitness level is. They haven’t played since beating Norwich 3-0 on the 5th December – although they are probably a good bit over Covid19 as the Leicester game was called off due to the outbreak in Leicester. I questioned the fitness level of Spurs heading into that game, because let’s face it’s always a question, but they will have had more time to train and fully recover now.
Just because they have had more time to recover, doesn’t mean they can cope with the level of Liverpool though! Liverpool have been fantastic this season, and they seem in unstoppable form at the moment. Conti has said publicly what a big task he has an Spurs, and although they have seemingly made progress at the back, they haven’t played anyone close to Liverpool’s level yet. It’s easy to beat Norwich, they had home advantage against Brentford and Leeds too. Let’s see how they get on here before making a judgement. My feeling is they will come up well short, and Liverpool are very much worth backing here at 1.62. I would have them closer to 1.5 – they have been creating chances for fun lately and I just can’t see how Spurs stop them from scoring. I know Conti has been setting Spurs up better at the back, and they have had more time to work together now – for those reasons I’m not going to have a Max Bet, but I can’t see past the Liverpool win here. They have been created xG figures of 1.7, 2.65 and 3.2 away from home recently – they can create similar here and win the game.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Liverpool to beat Tottenham at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQTotliv
● Tottenham have won just one of their last 17 Premier League games against Liverpool (D4 L12), losing each of the last six in a row.
● Liverpool have won their last three away league games against Tottenham, since a 4-1 loss at Wembley in October 2017. It’s the Reds’ longest ever winning run away against Spurs in their league history.
● Liverpool suffered their first Premier League defeat of the season the last time they played away against a London side, losing 3-2 at West Ham last month. The Reds haven’t lost consecutive top-flight visits to the capital since April 2015.
● None of Tottenham’s last 18 home league games have finished level, with Spurs winning 12 and losing six. Including a current run, they’ve had three streaks of three consecutive wins in that time, last winning four on the trot in June/July 2020.
● Liverpool have scored in each of their last 26 away games in all competitions, their longest such run in their history.
● Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 34 Premier League games in the month of December, since a 4-3 loss at Bournemouth in 2016. It’s the longest unbeaten run any side has had in a specific month in the competition.
● Spurs boss Antonio Conte’s four Premier League meetings with Liverpool have seen him win once, draw twice and lose once. The Italian’s first ever defeat in the competition was in a home game against Liverpool, with his Chelsea side losing 2-1 at Stamford Bridge in September 2016.
● Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino has scored five goals in his last six Premier League games against Tottenham, with three of these strikes ending up being the winning goal of the game.
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has either scored or assisted in his last 15 Premier League games – another goal involvement here will set a new record in the competition.
● Divock Origi has scored five goals in his last six away games for Liverpool in all competitions, more than he had in his previous 40 on the road for the Reds (4).