SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s action including CHELSEA v MAN CITY at 4.30pm. All matches include a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ASTON VILLA V FULHAM
2pm It’s a wonderful Super Sunday from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! We have five fixtures to enjoy before we head into the International Break next week; all eyes will undoubtedly be on Chelsea v Manchester City later in the day, but we have four fixtures kicking off at 2pm before we get there. We start the day with Aston Villa hosting Fulham. Aston Villa had a massive setback last weekend with a 2-0 loss away to Nottingham Forest – with Liverpool and Arsenal both dropping points, a win for Villa there would have meant they started this weekend sitting in third. They have been incredible under Unai Emery – even to start the weekend sitting in fifth is a fantastic achievement, and perhaps they can move up to the Europa League this season rather than the Europa Conference League. With Manchester United and Chelsea so poor this season, they have a decent chances too! They come into this game as the odds on favourites, and if you want to be competing for European spots you simply have to be winning games like this.
The home win is trading 1.62 at the time of writing with Fulham 6.0 and the draw is 4.4. Fulham have been slipping down the table, and that’s not a surprise to anyone looking at their stats. They really struggled at the back last season but sides never took their chances against them. Their average xG conceded is high at 1.55 this season and they aren’t creating that many chances either – their average xG created is 1.1 which is the fifth worst attacking figure in the Premier League this season. That drops to under 1.0 away from home too, and they are facing one of the most improved (and now best) sides in the Premier League here. Villa have been superb at home – their average xG created at home is 1.78 and they are conceding an average of under 1.0. Despite the loss at Nottingham Forest last weekend, they finished that game with an xG of double what they conceded and I can only see one winner here. The 1.62 is ten ticks too big in my opinion and Villa are worth a Max Bet here.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Aston Villa to beat Fulham at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AvlFul
BRIGHTON V SHEFFIELD UNITED
2pm We have the shortest price of the day next as Brighton host Sheffield United. Brighton are currently on a poor run of results with five games without a win in the Premier League. In between those fixtures they have beaten Ajax 2-0 twice in the Europa League so it’s not all bad – and you also have to consider they have had to play Liverpool and Manchester City in that run too. The reason why Brighton are trading as short as 1.26 at the time of writing however is how bad Sheffield United have been this season. As I highlighted last weekend, if you look at all the major leagues around Europe, nobody has poor figures like Sheffield United! Their overall performance level is -1.20. That’s a massively high negative figure; not many sides come close to it around Europe! They have issues at both ends of the pitch – their average xG created is only 0.79 and they are conceding a very high average xG of 1.99. Conceding two goals a game is always a bad place to be, but when you aren’t even creating a goal yourself on average then you have major issues.
That being said, Sheffield United did get their first win of the season against Wolves last weekend. Even that win was a surprise to be honest – but they are still sitting bottom of the table. Brighton have created an average xG of 1.69 this season which is top four form, at home that figure rises to just over 2.0 which is incredibly impressive. I know Brighton like to play an open game and they will concede the odd sloppy goal, but they’re happy to pay that price for how much they create going forward. I feel this will be a one way traffic win for Brighton, especially with how many chances Sheffield United are conceding. Any Other Home Win looks nice value at 3.35 – an early goal could see Brighton run riot and 3.35 is a decent price for four or more goals.
The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win at 3.35 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriShu
LIVERPOOL V BRENTFORD
2pm Liverpool host Brentford next, and this could be a very entertaining game. We have two sides here who love to play an attacking game, and we should see an end-to-end game! Liverpool have had a very poor week coming into this game – they dropped points with a 1-1 draw at Luton Town last weekend, and then lost 3-2 to Toulouse midweek in the Europa League. On paper, you would have fully expected Liverpool to win those two games but as ever they simply concede too many sloppy goals. They created enough to win the Luton game – they actually finished that game with a very high xG figure – but at the end of the day if you don’t take your chances you don’t get results. Brentford would have been a little disappointed with their start to the season, but they come into this game off the back of three wins. Brentford have actually been one of the better sides to watch this season – their average xG created is 1.48 and their average conceded is 1.44. They play a very open game, and you’d imagine these two will gel together very well to make a very good game to watch.
As you would expect with home advantage, Liverpool come into the game as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.43 at the time of writing with Brentford 8.0 and the draw is 5.5. Liverpool have been absolutely superb going forward this season – their average xG created is 1.97. Only Manchester City have a better figure than that. They are way more open than the other top sides around them though; Manchester City and Arsenal are much more solid at the back. Liverpool concede a lot of sloppy goals, and they are actually getting away with a few things at the back this season too – they should be conceding more goals! I feel this game absolutely screams goals, and I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading 1.51. I thought we’d see that trading around the same price as Liverpool at 1.43, and I’m happy to keep things simple here. This game screams goals, and Over 2.5 goals will do me!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.51 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivBrt
WEST HAM V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
2pm We finish the 2pm games with West Ham host Nottingham Forest. We have the biggest home price of the 2pm games, but we still have an odds on favourite. West Ham are trading 1.95 with Nottingham Forest 4.2 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. With Nottingham Forest picking up a win last weekend against Aston Villa, these two sides started the weekend sitting right beside each other. There’s only one point between them, and West Ham are in need of a result in the Premier League after three losses. It’s not all bad for the Hammers though as they have knocked Arsenal out of the Carabao Cup in between those losses. They also managed a 1-0 win midweek in the Europa League over Olympiacos and that has been put in a strong position in that group, except Freiburg also have nine points too so it’s still to be decided who tops the group. Nottingham Forest will be buzzing after their win over Aston Villa last weekend, and we actually have two very even matched sides here.
West Ham fans won’t like that; they will view themselves as a much better side than Forest. Looking at the stats though, there’s nothing between them. West ham’s over performance figure this season is -0.49 while Nottingham Forest’s is -0.51. Forest have been poor going forward; their average xG created is only 1.05 but West Ham have been poor at the back, their average xG conceded is 1.80. Only Sheffield United and Bournemouth have been worst at the back this season. West Ham come into the game as the odds on favourites, but there’s plenty of layers for them too. They are trading 1.93 at the time of writing with Nottingham Forest 4.4 and the draw is 3.9. A major worry here would have to be the Forest away form; they just struggle for results away, and it was the same story last season too. I wouldn’t be rushing to back West Ham at odds on either though, and I feel that home win price makes the draw value at 3.9. This is a game for small stakes.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuNot
CHELSEA V MANCHESTER CITY
4.30pm The Premier League have saved the best until last this weekend as we finish the weekend with Chelsea hosting Manchester City! Obviously there’s a lot of history in this fixture, but the two sides have had a huge gulf between them in recent times. Chelsea were all over the place last season, and City have an excellent recent record against Chelsea. They have won the last six meetings – the last time Chelsea won was back in April 2021 when they had home advantage too. Chelsea have been through plenty of managers since then! Perhaps they can kickstart their season after a 4-1 win over Spurs on Monday night, but the reality is that they still sit in mid-table. Just when you thought they might be heading in the right direction, they lost 2-0 here to Brentford at the end of October, and that’s just been Chelsea lately – inconsistent. Looking at the bare figures, they are creating a lot of chances. They haven’t been taking them though which has been the same old story as when Thomas Tuchel and Graham Potter were here. They’ve finished a lot of games this season with a higher xG figure than they’ve conceded, but they aren’t getting the results. Overall though, I think Mauricio Pochettino will be happy with how they’ve played – but he needs better results given how trigger happy the owners are!
Manchester City come into the game as the odds on favourites. Pep Guardiola’s men are trading 1.8 at the time of writing with Chelsea 5.3 and the draw is 3.85. City have been pretty much faultless since losing away from home to Arsenal, where they had injuries. They absolutely hammered Manchester United at Old Trafford controlling the game, and we could see something similar here given how many goals Chelsea have conceded at times this season. It’s hard to get away from City at 1.8 here – I know Chelsea are playing better than their bare results, but the City level is just above everyone else in the Premier League. Their average xG is 2.00 which is exceptionally high and they are also only conceding an average xG of under 1.0. They are rock solid all over the pitch, and they’ve actually created more away from home this season. Their average xG created away from home has been a whopping 2.34! I’m very happy to take the 1.8 on City here, and it’s a confident bet to finish the weekend.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City to beat Chelsea at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheMnc