FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BAYERN MUNICH v WERDER BREMEN and RAYO VALLECANO v REAL VALLADOLID with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYERN MUNICH V WERDER BREMEN
7.30pm After a busy week of domestic Cup action from Europe, we’re back to our usual Friday night football slot on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with one fixture from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga. We kick off the night with Bayern Munich hosting Werder Bremen, and the market is fully expecting another comfortable win for Bayern here! They are trading at one of the shortest prices around Europe this weekend – Bayern are 1.13 with Werder Bremen 24.0 and the draw is 13.0 at the time of writing. Bayern were actually trading shorter than this last weekend – they were 1.06 at home to Holstein, which is the shortest price I’ve seen in the domestic league game this season. That game was more entertaining than expected too with Bayern winning 4-3 – they did go 4-0 up and probably switched off; things only got nervy in injury time given they conceded twice after the 90th minute. Werder Bremen games have been very entertaining in the Bundesliga – they are scoring an average of 1.7 goals and conceding an average of 1.8 per game at the moment. We’re going to see an open game here, and with Bayern so short in the match odds market we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value here.
Werder Bremen have been massively over-performing in front of goal this season. Their average xG created is only 1.29 compared to their actual goals scored at 1.7. A figure like that won’t trouble the Bayern defence, but as we saw last week they can easily switch off when they control the game – that’s always a worry when considering whether or not to back Both Teams Not To Score; effectively a Bayern clean sheet in these games. No is marginally odds on here at 1.98 – that’s landed in the last three meetings between the sides, including a shock 1-0 win for Werder Bremen the last time they played here! Bayern hammered them 5-0 away from home in September however, and given how open both sides have been this season it would be a surprise if we didn’t see goals here in my opinion. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.2 – I feel Over 3.5 goals looks cracking value at 1.62. Bayern have been superb going forward this season, and Werder Bremen have been quite sloppy at the back. You wouldn’t be surprised to see Bayern cover the line on their own, but as I said above they can ease off in the lead and concede themselves too. Over 3.5 goals is a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 3.5 goals at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayWrd
RAYO VALLECANO V REAL VALLADOLID
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Friday night football as Rayo Vallecano host Real Valladolid. This is a must win game for both sides for difference reasons – from a Rayo Vallecano point of view, they currently sit inside the top six and if they’re going to have any chance of actually getting European football then they need to win home games like this. From a Real Valladolid point of view, every game is a must win game for them given their nailed to the bottom of the table. It hasn’t been a good few weeks for them – they have watched Espanyol, Alaves and Valencia all win games recently and they are becoming dethatched at the bottom of the table. They are now six points away from Alaves in 18th and then eight points away from Espanyol sitting just outside the relegation zone. The writing is on the wall now to be honest – the effort they would need just to get back in touch, let alone actually go past is too much – as is always the case, they’ll bump into big sides too if they start to build momentum.
As you would expect, Rayo Vallecano come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.5 with Real Valladolid 8.6 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. Rayo Vallecano have been keeping their games exceptionally tight this season. They have been getting away with things at the back because their average xG conceded is over their actual goals conceded, but their games have lacked goals in general. Even though they have been somewhat limited in attack, you just know they are going to get chances here. Real Valladolid have conceded the most goals in La Liga this season, and their average xG conceded is high too. I was actually expecting to see Rayo Vallecano trading a little shorter than 1.5 when I clicked into the market – results have been hard to come by for Valladolid this season quite obviously, but they have been worse away from home. I can’t see past a comfortable home win here, and at 1.5 I believe we’re getting enough value for a Five Star NAP on Rayo Vallecano.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Rayo Vallecano to beat Real Valladolid at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RyoVal
