FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews NAPOLI v CAGLIARI with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI V CAGLIARI
7.45pm The eyes of the footballing world turn to Italy on Friday as we decide the Serie A title! Napoli host Cagliari and Inter Milan travel to take on Como with both clubs odds on to win in 90 minutes on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. There’s no doubt that Napoli are in the box seat; they have a one point advantage coming into the final game, they have home advantage and they are trading the shorter price to win. It would be a surprise if Antonio Conte’s side didn’t lift the title – ironically both managers won’t be allowed in the dugout with Simone Inzaghi at Inter and Conte here both serving a one match suspension.
The title race in Serie A has been the most entertaining around Europe this season. The Premier League and the Bundesliga were won early – La Liga went to the final weeks but Barcelona always had a decent advantage since their regained their form and we needed Real Madrid to win El Clasico to put some pressure on. The Serie A race has always been close, and both sides have dropped points in recent weeks too. Napoli have drawn their last two games against Genoa and Parma, while Inter Milan drew last weekend against Lazio.
As I said above, both sides in the title race are odds on to win in 90 minutes. Napoli are the red-hot favourites here; they are trading as short as 1.22 with Cagliari 19.0 and the draw is 7.6 at the time of writing. While in the other game, Inter Milan are 1.67 with Como 5.5 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. While it might look like Napoli have been fluffing their lines drawing their last two games; they’ve actually been playing superb football. They finished with an xG of 2.54 against Genoa and conceded just under 1.0. Against Parma they had 72% possession but it was disappointing their couldn’t create more. That being said, Parma are fighting to stay up so obviously they had everyone behind the ball.
Napoli are somewhat lucky Cagliari aren’t in the relegation battle and essentially have nothing to play for here. That means they should play a little more open. A draw last weekend for Parma was a superb result for example. Cagliari have been pretty average this season; their average xG created of 1.21 is low-to-mid table level and they have been struggling to convert those chances too. They have actually been involved in open games towards the end of the season too – five of their last six have had Over 2.5 goals and the other result was a 2-0 win over Verona. It’s hard to see past a Napoli win here, but you wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.22 given the situation.
It’s going to be fantastic viewing over the two games; as it always is when a title race goes to the final day. I’m going to keep stakes small here because obviously things can change very quickly as to what sides need to do. However, Napoli have been exceptionally good at the back this season – they have an average xG conceded of 1.12 and they have actually conceded the fewest goals in Serie A this season. Couple that with the fact that Cagliari are so limited going forward and I feel Napoli can keep a clean sheet on the way to winning here. Both Teams Not To Score is worth backing at 1.65 for small stakes.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapCgl
