MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews UDINESE v BOLOGNA and LAZIO v PARMA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
UDINESE V BOLOGNA
5.30pm Monday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week comes from Serie A, and we have a couple of massive games in the race for the European spots with Bologna and Lazio both in action. We’ve had some fixture movement in Serie A this week with the Pope passing away, but we kick off the action with Udinese hosting Bologna, and every game is massive at this stage of the season for Bologna – they come into the matchday sitting in fourth with Juventus and Lazio just one point behind. As you would expect, Bologna come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.88 with Udinese 5.1 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. You have to feel this is an excellent chance for Bologna to notch up another three points – Udinese have been your classic mid-table side this season, and there have been some signs that they have been “on the beach early” this season. They’ve lost their last five games – that run came after going six games unbeaten; winning four of those. Udinese were heavily involved in the relegation battle last season, so it would fit that they switch off and relax a little on the run-in now they are safely sitting in mid-table.
Udinese have struggled to create good quality chances this season, their average xG created is 1.32 and they haven’t been able to convert all those chances either. They come up against the best defensive side in Serie A here too; Bologna have an average xG conceded of 0.97 this season. They are the only side this season in Serie A with an average xG conceded under 1.0. It feels like Udinese are there for the taking at the moment, and the 1.88 is hard to ignore on Bologna. However, there are other options to consider too – the market is expecting a quiet game with Under 2.5 goals trading odds on at 1.7. I do like Both Teams Not To Score at 1.82 because Udinese have been limited this season and Bologna have been exceptional at the back. I couldn’t put anyone off that bet to be honest, however the Bologna win is six ticks higher and that offers more value in my opinion. Bologna are a confident bet to start the evening.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Bologna to beat Udinese at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UdiBol
LAZIO V PARMA
7.45pm We finish Monday night with another massive game that will have an impact on the top four race as Lazio host Parma. As I said above, Lazio come into this matchday sitting just one point behind Bologna who are in that last Champions League position. They also have Juventus in between them to worry about. Parma have been heavily involved in the relegation battle this season, but they have been grinding out a lot of results lately to give themselves some breathing room. Five draws were followed by a massive 1-0 win over Juventus last Wednesday night – that means Parma come into this matchday six points off the relegation zone, and I think it’s fair to say that they are safe for another season with that cushion at this stage of the season. It’s not a surprise to see Lazio come into the game as the odds on favourites given they have home advantage, but I’m sure there will be plenty of willing layers given the run Parma have put together. Lazio are trading 1.52 with Parma 7.2 and the draw is 4.8 at the time of writing.
Parma actually managed to beat Lazio 3-1 earlier in the season when they had home advantage, but Lazio will point to their xG figure that day and say they should have got a result given the volume of chances they created. Lazio have been much improved in that department this season, and they have the fourth best attacking figure in Serie A. Parma have struggled with an average xG created of 1.27, and they haven’t been taking those chances either. They’ve also been poor at the back – they have the joint-third worst defensive figure this season. While I do feel that Lazio will get the job done here – especially given the volume of chances Parma have conceded this season – you’d have to say that Parma are on their best run of the season. They must be full of confidence after the Juventus win, and that puts me off the 1.52 on Lazio. I feel this will be a more cagey game than the market expects, and I’m happy with a small bet on Under 2.5 goals at 2.2.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LazPar
