THURSDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Thursday’s games between AJAX v BRIGHTON, TOULOUSE v LIVERPOOL and WEST HAM v OLYMPIAKOS all with recommended BETDAQ bets.
AJAX V BRIGHTON
5.45pm It’s another massive night in the Europa League on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this Thursday! These fixtures in the middle of the Group when sides play each other back-to-back can make or break qualification. All the Premier League sides are in a reasonably strong position, but only Liverpool are certain to top their Group. We start the evening in Group B as ajax host Brighton. It’s been a desperate season for Ajax so far – they sit bottom of this Group and they are in the bottom half of the table in the Eredivisie. They’ve actually put in back-to-back wins domestically, so it was even worse than that – they were close to the relegation zone! They already had home fans rioting in their stadium and getting games called off, and it’s just been a terrible season for them. Brighton beat them 2-0 when the sides met two weeks ago, and given how good Brighton have been playing in the Premier League they come into this game trading as the odds on favourites. The away win is 1.78 at the time of writing with Ajax 4.4 and the draw is 4.5.
Looking at the Ajax situation, you’d want to back Brighton here but they are on a terrible run of results in the Premier League. They are without a win in five Premier League games, and they also got knocked out of the Carabao Cup. There are worries there of course, but they have also had a difficult fixture list. Chelsea knocked them out of the Cup and they had home advantage, they’ve had to play Liverpool and Manchester City. However, the 6-1 loss to Aston Villa and also failing to beat the likes of Fulham and Everton are red flags coming into this game. They are still creating some good chances – their average xG is 1.69 this season which is in the top four for attacking figures. They are conceding more goals than they should, but they do play a very open game. It’s hard to have faith in Ajax this season given the way they have played, but Brighton are conceding more chances than they are creating away from home in the Premier League this season and that along with their current run makes me feel the 1.78 is a little short here. Definitely keeping stakes low, but it’s look a nice value lay.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Brighton to beat Ajax at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AjaBri
TOULOUSE V LIVERPOOL
5.45pm Next we go to Group E as Toulouse host Liverpool, and Liverpool are in complete control of this Group. They sit top with three wins from three games, and Klopp should be able to rest the full XI for at least one fixture in this Group – maybe even two. When the draw was made it was pretty obvious Liverpool would sail through it and that has proven to be the case. They have conceded the odd goal here and there which does make the goal and handicap markets more interesting, but it’s pretty much been one way traffic. They blew Toulouse away 5-1 an Anfield two weeks ago, and it would be a big surprise if we saw anything other than a comfortable Liverpool win here. They come into the game as the hot favourites at 1.46 with Toulouse 7.0 and the draw is 5.3. Liverpool did get held to a 1-1 draw away to Luton Town at the weekend in the Premier League, and that was a big shock! They were trading in the 1.2’s to win that game, even away from home! They finished the game with an xG of 2.28, but they had to wait until the 95th minute to find an equaliser. It would have felt great at the time to get something in injury time, but it’s a very disappointing result. Just when you think Liverpool might actually get into the title race this season they drop points in games where they shouldn’t.
The market is expecting plenty of goals again here, and Over 2.5 goals is a tempting bet at around 1.5. That’s a few ticks bigger than the Liverpool win, and it’s hard to see anything bar an open game here. Liverpool never really sit back, and they’ve been conceding so many sloppy goals this season it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Toulouse score at some point. Away from home in the Premier League this season, Liverpool are conceding an average xG of 1.63 which is very high in fairness. Toulouse are at the low end of Ligue 1 this season, and their under-lining numbers are quite poor too. They are only creating an average xG of 1.08 this season and conceding an average of 1.51. I was tempted by Both Teams To Score given all the chances Liverpool are conceding, but Over 2.5 goals looks a better option at 1.5 as it allows for Liverpool to do all the scoring. This should be a very entertaining game with plenty of chances.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TouLiv
WEST HAM V OLYMPIAKOS
8pm We finish the evening in Group A as West Ham host Olympiakos. This is an exceptionally open Group at the moment, and we should know a lot more after the fixtures this week. At the moment West Ham top the Group with six points, Freiburg are on six points too, then we have Olympiakos on four and Backa Topola will finish bottom – they only have one point from three games. West Ham and Freiburg should go through, but that win from Olympiakos against West Ham two weeks ago has really opened things up. David Moyes would have been tearing his hair out after they managed to beat Freiburg prior to that as they would have felt that would decide who tops the Group! Back at home, West Ham should be a lot more comfortable and they are the odds on favourites. The home win is trading 1.69 with Olympiakos 5.1 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. Obviously there’s a huge gulf in class between the sides given where they play their domestic football, but Olympiakos will fancy getting a result here.
West Ham have had three losses in a row in the Premier League, but in fairness in between those fixtures they knocked Arsenal out of the Carabao Cup here. They have had massive issues at the back at the start of the season however; their average xG conceded is 1.80 which is the third worst figure in the Premier League – only Sheffield United and Bournemouth have conceded more chances this season. With the worries at the back for West Ham, I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.69 here. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market, and instead focus on the goals market. This game screams goals to me with West Ham playing a fairly open game this season; you wouldn’t be surprised to see Olympiakos score at some stage and while Both Teams To Score is an option at 1.69 – the same price at West Ham – I prefer Over 2.5 goals at 1.59. I feel we’ll get a very end-to-end game here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesOly