WEDNESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews ATLETICO MADRID v DORTMUND and PSG v BARCELONA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATLETICO MADRID V DORTMUND
8pm The Champions League Quarter-Finals continue on Wednesday night, and we have another two cracking fixtures on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We have two home favourites, but both look like they are going to be exceptionally competitive ties over the two legs. We start the night with Atletico Madrid hosting Dortmund, and this is a tie where I feel home advantage will be absolutely key. Both sides have very similar profiles this season, and both have struggled away from home. They are also both locked in a battle for fourth spot in their domestic leagues – we didn’t have La Liga action at the weekend due to it being a Copa del Rey Final weekend, but Dortmund lost meaning they are now back in fifth; however they are level on points with RB Leipzig. Atletico Madrid come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.82 with Dortmund 5.1 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. Much like the Atletico Madrid v Inter Milan tie in the Last 16; Atletico simply have to take a decent lead to Germany for the second leg. Inter won the first leg 1-0 in Italy, but Atletico’s performance level – much like Dortmund – has been very different at home and away this season. You only have to look at the under-lining numbers to see where both sides have issues.
Atletico have dropped points twelve times in La Liga this season, and ten of those games have come away from home. Barcelona beat them 3-0 here recently, and that has been their only loss of the La Liga season. Away from home they are only marginally creating more than they are conceding, and their average xG conceded of 1.42 is too high for comfort. Dortmund have also been conceding a lot of chances away from home in the Bundesliga; their average xG conceded away is 1.59, which is more than they are creating too. In the second leg, we’re effectively going to have the reverse stats; Dortmund will view this game as a case of getting through with as little damage done as possible. For Atletico, obviously they have been comfortable and played better at home, but as we saw in the Last 16 a 1-0 lead a dangerous position too given the away form. Focusing on this game over 90 minutes, the 1.82 on Atletico looks a very nice position. Dortmund are going to give them chances here, and they rarely play a negative game – they might have to try those tactics here, you’d have to say that Dortmund would be delighted with a draw but I expect Atletico to grind out a win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Atletico Madrid to beat Dortmund at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlDor
PSG V BARCELONA
8pm We finish the Quarter-Finals with another blockbuster fixture as PSG host Barcelona. This fixture in the Champions League has so much history; usually bad memories for PSG too – who could ever forget their collapse in 2017 after winning here 4-0! They got their revenge when knocking Barcelona out at the Last 16 stage in 2021, but that Barcelona comeback was one of the most iconic Champions League moments in 2017. So much has changed now; Messi played for PSG and left! As you would expect, PSG are running away with the Ligue 1 title – that’s a given basically and they will be judged on their Champions League performance rather than winning Ligue 1. Barcelona are eight points behind Real Madrid in La Liga, but their performance levels are pretty impressive – they have been a little sloppy at the back, and that’s something that PSG will be trying to exploit here. PSG come into the game as the favourites at 2.02 with Barcelona 3.9 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. It’s not a surprise to see PSG have the best attacking figure in Ligue 1; their average xG created is 1.87 but it is mildly surprising to see their average xG conceded as high as 1.3. That’s not an exceptionally high figure but given they absolutely dominate the league it is high in that regard.
For example, Barcelona have an average xG conceded of 1.18 but Real Madrid who are leading the table have an average of only 1.07. For sides like Inter Milan or Man City, their average xG conceded is always very close to 1.0. PSG are miles ahead in France, so you’d expect them to concede less chances. Barcelona have an average xG created of 1.88 so there’s only 0.01 between the sides only forward, although obviously La Liga is a better standard. Just looking at the bare figures, you’d say Barcelona have a great chance of getting through in this tie. You have to feel that PSG need a big win here with home advantage, and they also need Mbappe to deliver – however he usually does on the big stage! This game screams goals, and Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.76 with Both Teams To Score at 1.66. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet – I actually like the PSG lay option too but I feel the best value bet from the three options is the Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.76. We always see fireworks between these two, and they have both been a little open at the back this season as well. We should have a very entertaining game.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PsgBar
