Minnesota Vikings (2-5, 3-4 ATS) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5, 2-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Tampa Bay -2.5 (42)
Significant Injuries
Minnesota: S Antone Exum (questionable– ankle), G Vladimir Ducasse (questionable– knee), CB Josh Robinson (questionable– ankle), LB Gerald Hodges (doubtful– hamstring), TE Kyle Rudolph (out– abdomen)
Tampa Bay: LB Jonathan Casillas (questionable– hamstring), OT Anthony Collins (questionable– knee), S Dashon Goldson (questionable– ankle), WR Vincent Jackson (questionable– ribs), QB Josh McCown (questionable– thumb), LB Brandon Magee (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss
Minnesota is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 October games
Tampa Bay is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week
Tampa Bay is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss
Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. NFC opponents
The UNDER is 6-2 in Minnesota’s last 8 games overall
The OVER is 4-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 5 games following a bye week
The OVER is 4-0 in Tampa Bay’s last 5 games overall
Three reasons to back Minnesota
1. The Vikings have been better than the Bucs this season by any objective measure: they’ve won more games, performed better against the spread, and have been more competitive in their losses. The wrong team is favored here.
2. The Bucs have the NFL’s worst defense, a unit that ranks 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) in total yards allowed, pass yards allowed, and points allowed. They’ll have enormous difficulty slowing down a Minnesota passing attack that features a nice mix of experience (Greg Jennings) and explosiveness (Cordarrelle Patterson).
3. The Minnesota defense has played very well this season, limiting 5 of their 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer and ranking in the top-half of the league in both yards allowed and points allowed. They should smother an impotent Tampa offense that has gained fewer yards than all but two teams leaguewide and has produced 17 points or fewer in 4 of their 5 losses.
Three reasons to back Tampa Bay
1. The Bucs are playing at home, coming off a bye, and facing a team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games, with all but one of those losses coming by double-digits. Tampa’s poor play in a Week 6 loss to Baltimore has created value here, keeping this line at a very reasonable 2.5.
2. This week the struggling Tampa defense may have finally found the cure to what ails them: the Minnesota offense, a unit that has produced 16 points or fewer in 5 of their 7 games this season. The Vikings start rookies at both quarterback and running back and they’ve been especially bad lately, scoring just 39 combined points in their last three games (all losses).
3. The Bucs are roundly viewed as a terrible team after their 31-point home loss to Baltimore in Week 6, but a closer examination reveals a team that’s more competitive than it’s given credit for. Take the two games preceding the Week 6 loss, for instance: Week 4 saw Tampa pick up a road win in Pittsburgh and the following week they traveled to New Orleans and nearly beat the Saints before falling in overtime. They’re a better team than people realize and they’ve had an off week to regroup and recharge, so don’t be surprised if they put forth their best performance of the season.
Prediction
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