OVER-THE-MOON BETDAQ VALUE: Betdaq value came to Daqman’s rescue yesterday when he took 8.6 offers about Shifting Moon (WON 9-2). In fact, he gave the one-two in the race at Chelmsford, taking the second horse home as a saver.
TODAY: THE DERBY ABC: Daqman delves into the stats and the records of each Derby contender to count down their chances, according to the form and facts behind past winners.
TOMORROW: THE OAKS: Epsom opens tomorrow with the Classic for fillies, the Oaks. Daqman will challenge the days tips by Pricewise, with the score Daqman 36, Pricewise 9.
GOLDEN HORN HAS THE EPSOM DERBY ESSENTIAL
4.30 Epsom, Saturday (The Derby) The big question-marks over Saturday‘s Derby concern horses likely to be switching from heavy-ground trial wins to a sound surface, and whether the 1-2-3 in the Dante Stakes will finish in the same order. Here’s what the stats demand:
A: Won 1m 2f or placed Guineas or Dante (19/21)
B: Won a Group race (17/21)
C: Rated 108-121 (16/21, some notional)
D: Ran in last five weeks (18/21)
E: Sire’s stamina index 9.8 or more (16/21)
F: Two to five career starts (16/21)
ABCDF Golden Horn
The only box he doesn’t tick concerns the question mark over his stamina, but his sire, Cape Cross, has got
Sea The Stars (won the Derby) and Ouija Board (won the Breeders Cup, 1m 3f, and dam of Derby winner Australia) amidst his plethora of milers. So much depends on the mating.
Golden Horn’s dam didn’t race but was a half-sister to a Lingfield Derby Trial winner and a Cheshire Oaks winner (both 1m 3.5f). The combo looked potentially good enough if Golden Horn could prove it on the track.
And he finally convinced connections that he was a Derby horse when winning the most significant modern trial, the Dante Stakes, going away, and pointing up his well-balanced action, an essential for the vagaries of Epsom.
ABCD Elm Park
Golden Horn and his stablemate, Jack Hobbs, were both winners in the Spring before beating Elm Park in the Dante. He was six lengths off the winner.
Elm Park had not been seen since completing a four-timer in the Royal Lodge Stakes and the Racing Post Trophy. Nevertheless, he finished 13 lengths in front of Nafaqa, the colt who had run him to a length in the Royal Lodge.
The Racing Post Trophy third, Celestial Path, was fifth in the 2,000 Guineas, probably an inadequate trip.
Elm Park is the best of his sire’s get, most of them stayers, and the dam’s side has bags of stamina.
ABCD Success Days
Has won his trials on heavy going, and there’s no knowing how he will perform on top of the ground. Progeny of his sire, Jeremy, like an easy surface but Jeremy, himself, won the Jersey Stakes on firm!
Success Days seemed a shock winner of the Ballysax but we wouldn’t have been so surprised had we known that the beaten odds-on favourite, John F Kennedy, would also run last in the Dante, 34 lengths off Golden Horn.
Meanwhile, Success Days goes for the Derrinstown and slaughters another small field 10 lengths with another front-running display.
This time the form was strong: the distant runner-up had beaten Hans Holbein six lengths in April and had run a length off Pleascach at Navan before that one beat Found for the Irish 1,000 Guineas.
ABCEF Epicuris
By Arc winner Rail Link with the dam from the family of French Derby winner Sanglamore (when that race was 1m 4f like ours).
Epicuris should certainly not fail for lack of stamina on his own account, having won the Criterium de Saint-cloud (1m 2f heavy) as a two-year-old.
But his odds-on, four-lengths defeat over the same trip on better ground at Longchamp in April was compounded when the winner, Silverware, was seven lengths off New Bay in Sunday’s French Derby.
ABDEF Hans Holbein
As we say of something unimpressive but better than workmanlike: ‘Has done nothing wrong.’
Showed stamina to be his forte at Leopardstown, then handled the turns of Chester in winning the Vase, also on soft, from Storm The Stars.
But the third horse, Medrano, had been well in rear of Elm Park on firm last autumn and of Silverware on heavy at Longchamp in the Spring.
And Hans seems to have been replaced in the affections of Ballydoyle connections and their fans by stablemate Giovanni Canaletto.
ACDEF Jack Hobbs
The son of Halling won a handicap 12 lengths to launch his season but horses need a proper race.
So the penny hadn’t dropped in the Dante when Frankie Dettori got after him at the business end and, asked to quicken past Elm Park, he then had to resist a sweeping outside run by Golden Horn.
While Elm Park faltered, without a previous run, and Golden Horn ran straight as a gun-barrel, Jack Hobbs hung fire for no other reason than that he didn’t have the mental know-how.
Halling’s best sons, Cavalryman and Opinion Poll, were both Cup horses, while Romsdal was placed in a Derby for this same Jack Hobbs stable. The dam’s best winner was a handicapper.
ADEF Kilimanjaro
Strapping son of Derby winner High Chaparral out of a mare by Dalakhani, sire of King George winner Conduit.
Still a maiden in April when he won in a hood on Polytrack. Wore the hood again to win the Lingfield Derby Trial from Magic Dancer, and theoretically needs to improve nearly two stone.
ADE Storm The Stars
Very well related son of Derby winner Sea The Stars, with the dam (unproven at paddocks) going back to Giant’s Causeway, and connected to Marvellous and Gleneagles. Beaten by Golden Horn last season and Hans Holbein this.
CDEF Giovanni Canaletto
The final Ballydoyle dark horse, brother to the Derby winner Ruler Of The World. Beaten a neck, giving weight to hat-trick-seeking filly, in the Gallinule. Another with around two stone to find but the money this week says he will. So does Ryan Moore.
Missed the Chester Vase after scoping badly, and is making up for lost time at home. But I can’t remember a horse with so little lead-up form taking the Blue Riband.
DEF Carbon Dating
Some 15 lengths behind Success Days and 12 behind Gleneagles. That form says it all.
DEF Moheet
Craven Stakes third who finished eighth in the Newmarket Guineas. By High Chaparral but dam’s side are milers at best and stable not noted for its ability at the Derby distance.
DF Rogue Runner
Trainer Andreas Wohler has landed the Guineas double in Germany this year and, though he has looked a stone behind the top level of three-year-old colts, this one’s sire, King’s Best, won an Epsom Derby with Workforce.
LORD 13.0 BETDAQ VALUE FOR IN-FORM ALSTON
3.30 Hamilton Paddy’s Rock (16.0 on BETDAQ early mouse) looks disguised. He’s run over a trip too far three times this season, which has now got him back down to the mark that brought him a CD win on an easy surface last August.
4.00 Hamilton Lord Franklin has won three times on this course and is unbeaten here in two appearances at today’s trip. His modest effort in three runs back have drooped him to within a pound of his last winning mark.
And trainer Eric Alston has just struck form: two wins and three seconds with his last seven starters: I grabbed 13.0.
ANOTHER HIGH-SECRET SEQUENCE FOR PRESCOTT
7.20 Kempton Another stable just into top gear is Dean Ivory’s. Like his father, Ken, he campaigns Kempton, and has a smart Acclamation colt making his handicap debut in this.
Cutely named (out of Golden Legacy), Stake Acclaim (offers of 5.9) strolled home at Doncaster last backend after running up to Fannaan, who would win the Houghton at Newmarket and be a contender for this April’s Greenham.
8.30 Kempton High Secret and Shades Of Silver match marks (both carry 9st 7lb tonight), yet High Secret has won and been placed a grade higher than his rival, who makes a price for him.
Napped as a typical Sir Mark Prescott sequence horse (landed a hat-trick last season) with more to come: backed at 2.86.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 1.3pts win and place PADDY’S ROCK (3.30 Hamilton)
BET 1.6pts win and place LORD FRANKLIN (4.00 Hamilton)
BET 4pts win STAKE ACCLAIM (7.20 Kempton)
BET 10pts win (nap) HIGH SECRET (8.30 Kempton)
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