PROFIT TWO DAYS RUNNING: Daqman’s staking plans have manipulated a profit for two days running (total 23 points) with a fair-priced winner on both days. He’s now hoping to keep the week in credit, following..
WON 5-1 Flying Empress (Monday)
WON 4-1 Relight My Fire (Tuesday)
NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE ABC: After his ABC guide to the Irish Derby yesterday, Daqman now takes you through the card for the Northumberland Plate (Pitman’s Derby, Newcastle, Saturday). Check off the declared runners.
DRAW COULD BE KEY TO PITMAN’S DERBY
3.45 Newcastle, Saturday (Northumberland Plate) The trouble with trends to the Pitman’s Derby is that they have done an about-turn.
AGE: Recent stats point to older horses but, before that, four-year-olds held sway. Can they get back into it?
WEIGHT: Two of the last three winners have carried 9st 3lb or more but, overall, lightweights are much the best.
DRAW: On top of all that, what may be the most vital stats positions have not yet been drawn: low stalls have the best record.
A Carried 8st 12lb or less (15/17)
B Aged five or six (5/6)
C NH or mixed stable (5/7)
D Had won a Flat race of around 2m or more (8/10)
E Rated 90 or higher (8/11)
F Drawn in single figures (7/11): to be announced
ABCD Ridgeway Storm
Out of the first four only once in 10 starts over the last year or so; winner of the Queen’s Prize on Kempton Polytrack (found plenty).
‘Moral’ winner at York back on turf after seven AW races, beaten less than a length giving 5lb to the winner.
ABCE Aramist
In the first four 15 out of 18 starts. Second November Handicap, and up more than a stone on last summer’s mark. Best form with cut in the ground.
ABCE Cardinal Walter
Broke his duck over hurdles in Betdaq Betting Exchange Hurdle at Doncaster (soft) in December and good form since, including on a sounder surface. First run on Flat for more than two years.
ABCE Totalize
Graded hurdler, 12lb higher on the Flat than when winning at York last June. Was giving 11lb when beaten a length-and-threequarters by Seamour at Haydock recently.
Revised weights have him running a dead-heat with the third horse home, Nearly Caught, but he’s better off with Suegioo (4th) and Rite To Reign (5th)
ABDE Gabrial’s King
The Chester Cup fourth (to Gold Cup winner Trip To Paris) was only eighth in that Haydock race won by Seamour but is more than a stone better here.
ABE Gabrial’s Star
Not won on the Flat since soft-ground success at Chester more than a year ago and returned there in similar conditions, fifth to Trip The Paris when denied a clear run in the Chester Cup.
ACDE Ardlui
Fifth in this race last year, when a pound higher. Has done his best work on an easy surface, including when third in the Betdaq Betting Exchange Handicap at Doncaster last autumn. One run back, third to Gold Cup winner trip To Paris at Ripon.
ACDE Seamour
Lightly raced – just six Rules runs on his CV – and defeats have come only on debut and when dropped back in trip for first run back in May. Beat a bunch of these at Haydock but it’s cost him an 8lb rise.
ACE Buthelezi
Tried to make all in the Chester Cup – finished seventh – and also dropped back off the pace, down in trip at Epsom in race won by Blue Surf at the Derby meeting
ACE Resiliency
This is only his eighth start and his second since gelded and switched from David Wachman to Michael Appleby. Plugged on at Newmarket last time.
ADE Rite To Reign
Not out of the frame since November 2013 until beat en in that Seamour race at Haydock (see above). Stays well. Best with some cut.
AD Taws
Only fifth behind Trip to Paris at Ripon and seventh to Seamour at Haydock, when several others among these were involved. But showed her forte is stamina when second in Queen Alexandra over far enough at Royal Ascot last week.
AE Montaly
Ran well last summer, including fifth in the Queens Vase and a winner at Haydock. Best run since was sixth in first-time hood behind Blue Surf at the Epsom Derby meeting.
AE Notarised
Steadily climbing stayers’ ranks. Won a decent handicap at the Dante meeting; then probably out again too quickly when unplaced at Newmarket but back to form at Goodwood over further.
AE Oasis Fantasy
Raced consistently at 1m 4f but narrow defeat at Goodwood (1m 6f) by Quest For More on only step up in trip. The handicapper has equalised them.
A Le Maitre Chat
Fourth behind Quest For More and Oasis Fantasy at Goodwood. Now dropped a pound, while they have both gone up in the weights. Gave a stone to Taws last backend, and beaten only a neck (2m 1f).
BCE Max Dynamite
Trainer Willie Mullins (won Ascot Stakes last week) is bullish about this Graded hurdler whose Flat career was in France, also at the highest level (ran in French Derby).
BDE Angel Gabrial
Up 7lb on his victory in this race last year (good to firm). Not disgraced at Group level after but below par this term in Chester Cup. Better effort at York behind Clever Cookie, and 5lb better off now.
BDE Quest for More
Around 20lb higher than last summer, after winning the Gordon Carter (Ascot 2m, October) and pipping Oasis Fantasy at Goodwood last month.
BDE Suegioo
Beat Angel Gabrial in last year’s Chester Cup, but tables were turned, giving him 6lb, when they were one-two in this race.
Has struggled off higher marks this season but finished well, fourth behind Seamour, Totalize and Nearly Caught at Haydock, and now races off highest mark.
BE Blue Surf
Has campaigned at this level for two seasons, making little progress and surprise win at 20-1 at the Epsom Derby meeting puts him on career high mark.
BE Nearly Caught
Despite a wide draw, stayed on sixth in Cesarewitch and ran another good race, third giving weight to both winner and second, Seamour and Totalize, at Haydock last month.
CDE Clever Cookie
Back-to-back wins at York last Spring and repeated that feat at higher level last month (Ormonde Stakes at Chester and Grand Cup at York) and two lengths off the winner in the Doncaster Cup. Now off highest ever mark.
TAKE NOTE OF LETTERS IN ETERNAL STAKES
This is Carlisle’s big day. The Eternal Stakes and the Carlisle Bell Handicap highlight a seven race card at the popular track and the Eternal Stakes looks like a quality race.
4.10 CARLISLE (British Stallion Studs EBF Eternal Stakes) Ten fillies go to post for the sprint over six furlongs and 192 yards including Michael O’Callaghan’s Letters of Note, a first runner at Carlisle for the Irish Trainer. This could provide him with a perfect start.
After demolishing a field at Dundalk in late January, the Azamour filly was then put away for the Classics, the German 1,000 Guineas became the target. However, a mile didn’t appear to suit her and she faded at the finish despite travelling supremely well up to a furlong out. She looked as if she didn’t stay.
The drop back to just under 7 furlongs seems to be right up her street and she remains very unexposed still.
William Haggas will saddle Temtping for the Cheveley Park Stud, another who annihilated the field in a Maiden. This one won with her head in her chest at Thirsk recently and looks as if there should be plenty of improvement in her from that.
She has only had two runs, with her debut in a nice Newmarket Maiden, finishing third.
The Michael Bell trained Touchline is the likely jolly and rightly so after finishing third behind Osaila at Royal Ascot. That was over a mile though and today’s trip would hold a question mark over her.
Excilly and Astrelle are the best of the rest and both seem like they will be suited by today’s conditions.
However, Michael O’Callaghan has proved himself to be a very shrewd trainer and Letters Of Note is most likely to have enough scope to go much higher than her current mark of 99.
3.35 CARLISLE (Carlisle Bell Handicap) This is quite a tricky race on paper. Over seven furlongs and the draw is likely to play it’s part. There are two that I have picked out against the field.
David O’Meara picked up He’s No Saint after some decent runs in Ireland early in his career. Although his form was looking like it was tailing off slightly, he was running against some very useful opposition.
Since joining O’Meara, he has dropped steadily in the Handicap after three runs in the UK with a very promising showing in his last two outings at Catterick and York. Off a mark of 85, he may be able to pick up this prize.
Near the bottom of the weights, Brian Ellison’s Autun has been tried over varying distances but he is untried over today’s trip of just under 8 furlongs (7 furlongs, 200 yards to be exact). He is a nice price as a Place selection in an open race.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9pts on strength, 10pts for a Banker)
BET 6pts win WOODY BAY (3.00 Carlisle)
BET 4pts win HE’S NO SAINT and BET 2pts place AUTUN (3.35 Carlisle)
BET 6pts win LETTERS OF NOTE (4.10 Carlisle)
BET 8pts win (NAP) PRIVILEGED (5.15 Carlisle)
BET 6pts win LIGHTNING SPEAR (4.55 Salisbury)
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