CRAZY GAMBLE LANDS A 4-1 NAP: Daqman’s nap, Crazy Chic, morning-paper priced at 10-1 and 6.6 offers on BETDAQ, landed a late-money gamble at Lingfield yesterday. Known as ‘lazy Chic’ at home, Crazy Chic (WON 4-1) needed all Luke Morris’s strength to coax him home in the Ladbrokes Handicap.
IT’S A DOUBLE BANKER DAY: Daqman will be checking out the English cards today and tomorrow, as well as his analysis of the Breeders’ Cup world championship events from Keeneland. There will be bankers or naps at each. Today there’s a double of bankers.
BREEDERS’ CUP TIPPING LINE-UP: He’s trying to continue the current sequence of 10 bankers out of 11, and he faces Pricewise of the Racing Post in all four Breeders’ Cup races tonight. His line-up of current scores is:
Daqman 100, Pricewise 18
10 out of 11 bankers
5 out of 5 lays
4-1 nap yesterday
CLEAR CUT START TO THE DAY WITH AN HQ BANKER
12.25 Newmarket Jim Bolger is six-handed at Dundalk tonight but we’ll follow his lead and ‘buy’ tonight’s expenses with a Clear Cut solo Newmarket raid. Class will out at this level.
2.35 Newmarket If that leaves you with too big a hole in the day before tonight’s Breeders’ Cup kick-off at Keeneland, get down to the Dirt form early with a bit of 7.6 Return Ace.
His back-to-back wins on AW disguises a stayer of some potential on turf. Sire Zamindar got an Arc heroine, Zarkava, and the dam goes back to a Prix Du Cadran winner.
Trainer James Fanshawe is fresh from a sequence of five out of eight. Return Ace is another lone representative here.
I shall lay the Godolphin favourite, Wild Storm, facing a 6lb penalty, after a disappointing week for Saeed Bin Suroor.
Nine of his last 10 runners have started favourite but only two at odds on have scored. Among the seven losers have been four seconds, and it’s a fair bet he fears missing strike again here, trying to nullify the penalty with a claimer.
BREEDERS’ CUP BETS: TAKE OFF WITH AIROFORCE
They’re coming home to Keeneland! Though this is the first time in its 31-year-history that the world-championship race meeting has been held at the Kentucky track, Keeneland auction has sold 82 horses that have won 88 Breeders’ Cup races.
LEADING JOCKEYS (Breeders Cup only with rides today and tomorrow): Mike Smith (21), John Velasquez (13), Frankie Dettori (11) and Gary Stevens (10).
LEADING TRAINERS (with runners, Breeders Cup only): D. Wayne Lukas 20; Bob Baffert 11; Claude McGaughey and William Mott 9; Richard Mandella and Aidan O’Brien 8; Todd Pletcher 7; Steven Asmussen and Chad Brown 5; Andre Fabre, John Gosden and Doug O’Neill 4; Freddy Head 3.
LEADING USA TRAINERS 2015: Todd Pletcher 212, Steven Asmussen 211, Jerry Hollendorfer 189, Chad Brown 175, Mark Casse 136.
LEADING USA JOCKEYS 2015: Javier Castellano 286, Irad Ortiz 248, Jose Ortiz 197, Rafael Bejarano 190, Luis Saez 172.
Going: GOOD to SOFT, soft in places (turf); FAST (Dirt). Gates: LOW to MIDDLE preferred. BARNS (in form): Chad Brown, Christophe Clement, John Gosden, Graham Motion, Aidan O’Brien, Todd Pletcher.
7.30 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf): Todd Pletcher, America’s record-breaking trainer (20m dollars in a single season), could take this for New York with Azar.
Azar was giving away weight at Belmont last month when finishing in front of Highland Sky and Ray’s The Bar. ‘Ray’ looks a big danger for the rival in-form New York barn of leading turf trainer Chad Brown and the nation’s top jockey Javier Castellano.
Brown also saddles Camelot Kitten, brother of last year’s Breeders’ Cup turf sprint winner, Bobby’s Kitten, which casts a doubt over his stamina at championship level from a bad draw in 10. He’s already been beaten by Airoforce.
Both Azar (gate 2) and Ray’s The Bar (in 7) are well drawn, along with Aidan O’Brien’s Shogun (in 4) but none of the three has raced on a soft surface. Front-runner Manhattan Dan (in 3) should set these low numbers up for the first turn.
Richard Fahey’s Birchwood, like Cymric owned by Godolphin, was third to top two-year-old Air Force Blue in the National Stakes at The Curragh on ‘yielding’.
Has winning form only on good to firm but is in a handy gate (6). Fahey worries whether he’ll get the trip.
The Richard Hannon of Canada, Mark Casse, famed for his ability with young horses, has a middle draw for unbeaten Airoforce, and is bullish.
Cymric, Lagardere runner-up on Arc day for John Gosden, and winner on the soft at Sandown, is given a tough task from gate 13, as is his neighbour in 14, Hit At A Bomb, another for Aidan O’Brien, who is quoted as saying that good ground is important to him.
BETTING VERDICT: Ladbrokes’ book in the Racing Post suggests that Shogun and Camelot Kitten are better than the bare form, which makes Shogun look huge on BETDAQ at 13.5 early mouse, but he has to prove himself on the ground, though now said to be drying out from soft.
Unbeaten Airoforce, who has already defied gate 13 for victory over this CD, has to be backed, but the value is with Azar at 17.5 for Todd Pletcher, the top man in North America.
GET ON THE MAP WITH A MAXIMUM STAKES HIT
8.10 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile): This would be a master class by Aidan O’Brien if he can take this with a handicapper, War Envoy, turf horse switched to dirt, unraced since June.
It’s in War Envoy’s DNA – he’s grandson of a Kentucky Derby winner – but he’s probably unlucky here that the scintillating Liam’s Map stays with today’s Mile instead of taking in the Classic tomorrow.
Liam’s Map (Todd Pletcher again) looks one of the bankers of the meeting in this company. He absolutely cruised home at Saratoga on the last day, and is a Grade above the rest of the field on all known US form.
BETTING VERDICT: Liam’s Map was odds on this morning (1.75 offers best) but surely worth trying to top up, since British backers are not that confident about Dirt form.
Make a bigger offer and grab your 2% commission. War Envoy was easy to back at 23.0 but Ballydoyle die-hards will still want to be on, which will also help ease the front of the market.
8.50 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf): I’ve written a lot about this race in the last few days but, with the draw on her side, Alice Springs looks a good bet to reverse Cheveley Park form with Illiuminate over the extra distance.
From adjacent gates, front-runners Ruby Notion and Catch A Glimpse should allow Ryan Moore a nice sit round the turns before he springs into action with Alice.
BETTING VERDICT: Alice Springs was to be my banker until Liam’s Map switched to the Dirt Mile, and I find 4.3 on BETDAQ this morning very attractive. It will be disappointing if our Group turf two-year-olds can’t handle the Americans here.
BIG-VALUE EVENING TOAST: HERE’S TO BETDAQ!
9.35 Keeneland (Breeders ‘ Cup Distaff (Fillies and Mares) Dirt: Wedding Toast beat last year’s winner of this Untapable in June, returning in September, with a clear-cut success over Curalina, giving her weight.
Since Curalina and I’m A Chatterbox are close together on form, in front of Calamity Jane and Peace And War, the danger to Wedding Toast seems to be Sheer Drama.
But a line through Untapable – third to Sheer Drama and Got Lucky – suggests that the favourite has nothing to fear.
BETTING VERDICT: Once again, I find value in the favourite, Wedding Toast, 4.9 on BETDAQ this morning, with most bookies offering 5-2.
In fact, simply betting in BETDAQ’s 105% orange on this race this morning was value in itself. The Toast is to BETDAQ!
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 40 points, except the bankers and the lay)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (English nap) CLEAR CUT (12.25 Newmarket)
LAY 6pts WILD STORM and BET 6pts win RETURN ACE (2.35 Newmarket)
BET 8.5pts win AIROFORCE and 2.5pts win AZAR (7.30 Keeneland)
GOLD BANKER: BET 30pts win (American nap) LIAM’S MAP (8.10 Keeneland)
BET 12pts win ALICE SPRINGS (8.50 Keeneland)
BET 10pts win WEDDING TOAST (9.35 Keeneland)
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